September’s here on Wall Street; get out the helmets
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September has kicked off true to its reputation on Wall Street: as a downer of a month.
The Dow Jones industrial average on Tuesday surrendered a 247-point early rally to close off 26.63 points, or 0.2%, at 11,516.92.
Despite a $5.75-a-barrel drop in crude oil futures prices, to $109.71 -- the lowest since April 8 -- sellers took control of the market as the session wore on.
‘It was kind of a euphoria buy and then it gave way to reality,’ said Georges Yared, chief investment strategist at Yared Investment Research in Minneapolis. The rally ‘just didn’t have any wheels to it.’
Maybe the calendar is too powerful a force to overcome. As Wall Street strategists are wont to point out every year at this time, September’s historical track record is abysmal for stocks -- although reciting the facts is easier than explaining why they’re so:
--- Since 1950, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has lost about 0.6%, on average, in September, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The next-worse month for performance is February, with an average loss of 0.1%. Every other month of the year has been positive, on average. (Remember, since World War II the market has gone up much more often than it has gone down.)
--- The stock market’s poor average performance in September isn’t the result of a few very bad months that skew the number. It’s just more likely to be a bum month, period: The S&P 500 has lost ground in September 32 times since 1950, while it has risen 25 times. Every other month of the year has seen more advances than declines, Stock Trader’s Almanac says.
Why so much red ink in September? One theory is that investors get back to work after summer vacation and decide to overhaul their portfolios, jettisoning what hasn’t worked. Also, for accounting purposes many mutual funds end their fiscal year on Oct. 31, which may encourage more housecleaning beginning this month.
But every trend has notable hiccups, and that’s the story of the last four years. September was positive for the S&P 500 every year from 2004 through 2007. The index was up 3.6% this month last year.
Ominously, though, in the bear-market years of 2000 through 2002 September was calamitous for the S&P -- down 5.4% in 2000, 8.2% in 2001 (the month of the terrorist attacks) and 11% in 2002.
So if the bear market that began last year isn’t over, helmets again are advisable this month.