Masking the Odds : Lottery Ads: Soft Sell on a Big Budget

The man in the television commercial is dead set against buying a lottery ticket.

“I’ve got a better chance of being struck by lightning,” he snorts.

Zap goes a thunderbolt.

“One ticket please,” says the scorched and newly converted lottery player.

That Michigan commercial, or something similar to it, could become a familiar part of the television landscape in California later this year, when the state lottery goes into operation and millions of dollars are spent by government officials to promote ticket sales.

Lottery officials and promoters say that advertising is necessary to counteract the flagging public interest that almost invariably follows the initial popularity of new lotteries. Critics say that clever ads mask the fact that the odds against winning $5,000 in an instant game in Michigan, for example, are 478,000 to 1. Critics point out that the odds against winning the really big money in a 40-number lotto game are nearly 1.4 million to 1.

And some California state officials contend that promoting gambling is not a proper role for a government agency in the first place.

‘Suckering ... Techniques’

“I don’t think it’s good for the state or good public policy to go out and push and urge people to gamble,” Gov. George Deukmejian, an opponent of last November’s lottery initiative, told reporters earlier this year.

“People look to the government to be honest and straightforward and not to be using suckering kinds of techniques,” Atty. Gen. John Van de Kamp, also a lottery opponent, said in an interview.

Deukmejian and Van de Kamp acknowledge, however, that the California lottery initiative, approved by 58% of the voters, requires state officials to set up a promotional campaign. Further, the language of the initiative seems to require that the campaign be massive, regardless of the misgivings of some state officials and other critics.

A provision of the initiative directs the state Lottery Commission to allocate about 3.5% of the projected gross ticket sales for at least a year to be used for “advertising, promotion, public relations, incentives and other aspects of communication.”

$35-Million Budget

The 3.5% translates into $35 million during the first year of operation if lottery ticket sales reach $1 billion, the most widely used projection. That would give California by far the highest state lottery promotional budget in the country.

“I think the 3.5%, based on the experience of other states, is way too high,” said Howard E. Varner, interim director of the California lottery.

Varner indicated that the commission may ignore the apparent legal requirement to spend that amount:

“The law (also) says we’re supposed to start it (the lottery) in 135 days,” he said with a smile, referring to the fact that lottery tickets probably will not go on sale until about six months after the March 21 deadline set by the initiative. (The initiative provides no penalty for failure to meet the deadline, but the Lottery Commission and Deukmejian are the targets of a taxpayers’ class-action lawsuit charging that the failure to begin ticket sales is depriving California’s public schools of more than $1 million a day in lottery-generated revenue.)

Varner also pointed out that the initiative language requiring funds for promotional activities is vague; he said the amount spent could easily be reduced to about 2.5% of the gross, depending on how much is used for retailer incentives.

Even so, 2.5% of the gross sales is still what Varner called a “pretty hefty” figure and could translate into $25 million for promotions during the first year, easily the biggest lottery promotional budget in the country.

Not surprisingly, some of the largest advertising agencies in the United States are standing by, hoping for a piece or all of the promotional pie.

“We would hope that it (the entire advertising budget) goes to one (firm) and that it would be us,” said David Hanson, account supervisor with W. B. Doner & Co., the agency that created the “Zap” commercial--as the lightning ad is called--for the Michigan State Lottery.

Hanson, like most lottery promoters and officials, insisted that his promotions are not intended to exhort people to gamble.

Tongue in Cheek

“We try to keep things fairly tongue in cheek,” Hanson said. “We certainly aren’t out there . . . haranguing people. You can’t take the chance of offending people who are against the concept of the lottery. . . . There are plenty of customers out there who like the lottery.”

Varner said state officials will study advertising techniques used elsewhere and launch California’s promotional campaign with care.

“I think it should always be done in good taste,” Varner said of lottery promotions, and then he acknowledged the difficulty in doing that: “I don’t know what good taste is.”

“Tasteful,” “whimsical,” “light,” “humorous” and “soft-sell” are the watchwords of lottery officials and promoters across the country in describing their advertising efforts.

In addition to the “Zap” commercial, which has been purchased and imitated elsewhere, Michigan lottery officials ran a series of TV spots spoofing science fiction thrillers by depicting a bank vault dangerously swelling week after week with lottery funds. The only way to stop it, viewers are told, is to win. Obviously, the only way to win is to buy a ticket.

“Most of our ads are accepted in fun,” said Michael Carr, head of the Michigan lottery and a possible candidate for California’s lottery directorship. “People . . . kind of look forward to our ads because they wonder what (W. B.) Doner will come up with next.

‘A Lot of Money’

“You’ve got to get the message across that you’ve got a lot of money to give away,” said Carr. “And yet you can’t promise your customer anything . . . and you’ve got to avoid hard-selling tactics.”

Some of the pitches that have been used in Michigan and elsewhere have not, however, been very subtle:

- “Take your change in lottery tickets,” advises a Michigan lottery sticker used at checkout counters in retail stores.

- “Become a millionaire by mail,” says a Michigan poster illustrated with a mailbox bulging with cash. “Get your Lotto subscription here.”

- In a New York lottery television commercial a man is shown bombarded with prizes: Appliances drop through the ceiling and a car crashes through the wall. “If you don’t play at all,” a voice asks, “you know what you’ll win? Nothing.”

- “Win up to $50,000 instantly or someone else will,” warns a Washington lottery poster featuring a plump, middle-aged woman with a greedy smirk and a wad of money.

Fries for Losers

- Washington lottery officials are planning a promotion for losers next month, offering free french fries at Burger King restaurants for anyone who buys a sandwich and presents a losing lottery ticket.

- “Win a million dollars cash,” proclaims an Illinois poster covered with wads of marching money shaped vaguely like people. “Moolah Instant Lottery.”

- “Remember,” says an Illinois TV commercial, “you can win a million dollars in cash, paid all at once.”

Michael Jones, superintendent of the Illinois lottery, insisted that his promotions are “whimsical” and, indeed, some of them are.

An Illinois lottery television commercial produced by the Bozell & Jacobs Inc. advertising agency features a waitress in a truck stop who suddenly cries:

“I won $6 million.”

“Did you really?” a customer asks.

“No,” she admits with a dreamy smile. “But I could have.”

In well-done lottery promotions, said Jones, “you don’t exhort people to bet.”

Still, he was asked, don’t lotteries appeal to greed?

“Absolutely,” Jones answered, but then he reconsidered. “I wouldn’t say greed. Greed is harsher. I would say you’re appealing to a fantasy.”

Dinners for Winners

Jones’ promotional efforts sometimes go beyond ads and slogans. Each year, Illinois lottery officials hold a reunion for people who have won a million dollars or more in the state. The lottery millionaires are put up in an expensive hotel and taken to dinner, dancing and drinks--and, of course, they are made available to the news media.

Last winter, a gathering of lottery millionaires and their guests attempted to eat a scrambled egg brunch at Chicago’s elegant Whitehall Hotel as a swarm of reporters and photographers stuck microphones, note pads and cameras in the faces of the diners.

“Great publicity,” Jones said of the reunions, which cost the state about $25,000 each. “It creates about a half million dollars in publicity in Chicago alone.”

Although virtually all metropolitan newspapers publish the winning numbers of lotteries that operate in their circulation areas, reporters and editors sometimes express concern that news and feature stories about big winners are tantamount to promoting gambling.

Larry Lange, who covers the Washington lottery for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, summed up those misgivings:

“I do think you have to tell the people who (win). . . . But every time you do it, you tend to promote, and that’s bothersome.”

‘Broaden the Base’

The thrust of lottery promotions, said Jones of Illinois, is to “broaden the base of the players,” not to increase the amount each player bets.

“If you run a lottery correctly,” he said, “if you run a lottery responsibly, the lottery will be broadly based.”

In an experimental attempt to broaden that base, Illinois lottery officials are using video lottery machines to try to snag so-called Yuppie players.

Bally Manufacturing Corp., a large Chicago-based company that produces slot machines among its many other ventures, found in research that young affluent people do not spend as much money on lottery tickets as some other segments of the population.

In an attempt to tap that market, Bally produced a machine that is a combination video game and lottery device. The machines, placed in about 200 bars in the Chicago area--most of them taverns that cater to young customers--offer games with such names as Space Marauder, Orbit Ace and Switcheroo Saloon.

The games, which cost $1 to play, appear to require skill, but winning a prize remains--as in any lottery--pure chance. The experiment is not completed, but indications are that the devices have not been a smash hit.

Difficult Illusion

“It’s tough to design a game that has nothing to do with skill but gives the impression of needing skill,” said David A. Bausch, manager of games development for the Illinois lottery.

The people at Bally Manufacturing are not the only ones interested in researching the lottery market. California officials are required by the state lottery initiative to finance a demographic analysis of the state’s lottery players after the first six months of ticket sales. The initiative also requires that a study of the effectiveness of the state’s promotional campaign be made one year after tickets go on sale.

Such research is essential to an effective and economical advertising campaign, according to Robert G. Genello, a senior vice president of Lewis, Gilman & Kynett Inc., the firm that promotes the Pennsylvania lottery, which has the highest gross ticket sales of any state lottery in the nation.

Genello noted that his firm handles the promotion of the Pennsylvania lottery for about 1% of gross ticket sales and looks with envy and some incredulity at the higher advertising budgets in other states, including California.

Foote, Cone & Belding Communications Inc., the parent company of Genello’s firm, is expected to be in the thick of the competition for a California advertising account.

Critical of Ads

Genello, if pressed, is not above criticizing the promotional work of some of the competitors.

W.B. Doner’s popular “Zap” television commercial, in which the reluctant lottery player is hit by lightning, is misleading, Genello said.

“Think about . . . the reaction of the consumer,” he said. “What that might suggest to somebody is that your chances (of winning) are in fact very good. It seems to be the message.”

As a contrast, he displayed one of his “very soft-sell” Pennsylvania television commercials in which Christmas elves cavort about with wreaths and ornaments and a background voice says:

“ ‘Twas the eve of the Pennsylvania lottery game, when down from the sky three jolly elves came . . . to proclaim . . . the game . . . Lucky Star. . . . You could win up to $75,000 in this game . . . or $1,000 a week for life. . . . And so they departed, with words that ring true: ‘Play Lucky Star, it could happen to you.’ ”

Doesn’t “Lucky Star,” like “Zap,” say essentially that winning big money in the lottery is a real possibility?

“But listen to the words up front,” Genello answered. “You could win. There are a lot of qualifiers in there. . . . It’s a very, very soft sell.”

And then he added:

“I didn’t say that our job was not to sell tickets. Because it is.”