Scramble for GOP Seats Anticipated : Dannemeyer Run for Senate Likely to Spur Chain Reaction

SACRAMENTO —  Orange County party leaders are predicting an almost unprecedented flurry of political activity following U. S. Rep. William E. Dannemeyer’s expected announcement next week that he will run for the U.S. Senate.

The four-term Republican congressman from Fullerton said Friday that there is “zero chance” that he will change his mind before Monday, when he has scheduled a five-stop state tour to launch his long-shot campaign.

With state Sen. Edward R. Royce of Anaheim almost set to enter the race for Dannemeyer’s 39th Congressional District seat, and prospects that some other incumbent GOP lawmaker will then run for Royce’s seat, Democrats are viewing the musical chairs as a blessing.

‘Just Run for Reelection’

But Tom Fuentes, county Republican Party chairman, said he is praying that “all of our Republican Orange County delegation, both in Sacramento and Washington, will just run for reelection.”

“I’m spending a lot of nighttime prayers on that hope,” Fuentes said. “. . . I’m just wearing out the knees on my pajamas.”

Besides Dannemeyer, two other Orange County Republican legislators, U. S. Rep. Dan Lungren of Long Beach and state Sen. William Campbell of Hacienda Heights, have expressed interest in running in next year’s Republican primary for U. S. Senate.

Two announced candidates, state Sen. Edward M. Davis of Los Angeles and Los Angeles County Supervisor Mike Antonovich, are far ahead of all of them in polls. The Orange County hopefuls also trail baseball commissioner Peter V. Ueberroth and actor Fess Parker, who also are viewed as potential candidates.

Fuentes predicted that a lot of hotly contested legislative races in the county would drain Republican money and energy from the races for governor and U. S. Senate. He said they also could dilute the GOP’s plans to win the Assembly seat that Garden Grove Democrat Richard Robinson has held for 10 years.

“I could see a 5- to 6-million-dollar tab” for the campaigns, Fuentes said. “I don’t see us losing, but it could have a major impact. . . . There is only so much money that can be tapped.”

Allen Not Interested

Republican Assemblywoman Doris Allen of Cypress, mentioned frequently as a potential candidate for state Senate if Royce tries to step up, said Friday that she is not interested in a change. Allen said she thought about a state Senate race but has decided that she only wants to run for reelection.

“You can go to the bank on that,” she said.

There also was speculation Friday that if Dannemeyer and Royce make their respective moves:

- Robinson, who has avoided making any definite statements about his political plans, will be lured into a race for an open state Senate or congressional seat. “I expect Robinson to run for reelection,” county Democratic Chairman Bruce Sumner said. But Robinson, who narrowly won reelection last year, has said only that he will run in 1986 for something.

- Anaheim Mayor Don Roth, who already is campaigning for the Orange County Board of Supervisors, may pull out and run as a Republican for Royce’s seat. Said Roth: “Definitely not. . . . I was interested at one time, but my feeling is very, very strong that I’m only interested in the Orange County supervisors.”

- Santa Ana Mayor Daniel E. Griset, a Democrat, may run either for Royce’s Senate or Robinson’s Assembly seat, if Robinson leaves it.

“It creates a lot of new activity and new opportunities,” said Chris Townsend, a Democratic Party activist.

Townsend said the predicted activity “will create a lot of non-incumbents” among Republican-held legislative seats, “which would be a tremendous boost” for Democrats.

“There is a big difference between taking on an incumbent and running for an open seat,” he said.

Chairman Hopeful

Admittedly optimistic, party chairman Sumner said a Democrat might even win in Dannemeyer’s district, where nearly 55% of the registered voters are Republican.

“It depends a lot on the candidate,” Sumner said. “Without Ronald Reagan on the ticket, I think ’86 is an open question.”

All the politicians still have several weeks to test the political waters, seek contributions, weigh support and, perhaps, change their minds.

State legislative candidates have until Feb. 5 to declare their intention to run and another month after that to file nomination papers. The filing deadline for supervisorial and congressional candidates is March 7.

Fuentes said he expects that Dannemeyer, Lungren and Campbell are “viewing these races with thoughtful, careful and very mature consideration.”

Can Change Mind

Even after Dannemeyer makes his announcement on Monday, Fuentes said, he can change his mind and run for reelection.

Meanwhile, Townsend said Dannemeyer’s planned Senate race is “good news” for Orange County Democrats.

“One, we are getting rid of Dannemeyer,” Townsend said. “He is going to lose. And, we (Orange County) need effective representation in the United States Congress. Right now, we don’t have that.”