Residents More Pessimistic on Orange County

For the first time more Orange County residents are pessimistic about the county’s future than are optimistic, saying it will be a worse place to live because of traffic, population growth and immigration, according to the 1986 Orange County Survey.

This feeling prevails despite the facts that residents are financially better off than ever before and that most expect their personal finances to keep improving, according to the survey conducted by Prof. Mark Baldassare of UC Irvine.

The survey also found that traffic remains the No. 1 problem in Orange County, but that a growing number of persons have become alarmed at the immigration of Asians and Latinos contributing to an increasingly cosmopolitan and less suburban environment. Nevertheless, the county’s standard of living remains higher than national norms, with “baby-boomer Yuppies” in the 35-45 age group in large part accounting for the county’s high social status.

Results Released

The primary reasons for pessimism about the county’s future are fears about increasing traffic, growth and immigration, Baldassare said Tuesday as he released the results of the annual random telephone survey conducted in September. About 47% of the residents surveyed said the county will become a worse place to live contrasted with 28% who said it will get better.

“What it tells us is that people fear the future,” Baldassare said. He said the perception of worsening conditions in the county does not necessarily mean worse times lie ahead.

However, Baldassare said, “fearing can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

“I don’t think we’re different from other suburban areas in the 1980s that are at our stage of development,” Baldassare said. “The main thing is we’re different from the nation as a whole. We’re different from the mainstream.”

“We’re becoming more like a New York or a Los Angeles metropolitan area,” Baldassare said. “Whether or not peoples’ attitudes will catch up with that is another thing. The big question is whether this is a one-year turndown and are people going to rebound. I don’t think it is a one-year turndown.”

A major reason for personal optimism, Baldassare said, is “great gains in income.”

Orange County’s median household income was $41,000, or almost double the national average of $22,000, according to the survey. And since 1982, when Baldassare first conducted the survey, the number of households claiming at least $50,000 annual incomes has doubled to about 33% of those polled. Correspondingly, households making less than $36,000 decreased by one third.

Baldassare said residents believe that their personal financial well-being has “to be directly attributable to the fact we’re living in a booming economy.”

Want Growth

But while residents “want growth in the county because it has benefited the economy,” he said, “they want to preserve their suburban-style city.”

Moreover, the poll found “a pattern of isolation or insulation from communitywide interest or effort,” he said.

In random telephone interviews with 1,008 residents, the survey also found that despite Orange County’s affluence, “having more does not translate into greater feelings of obligations.” A minority felt that it is “very important” to give money to the poor or volunteer time to community services.

“Orange County isn’t just fiscally conservative, but when it comes to helping others . . . we tend to be less than generous,” Baldassare said. “I’d say (residents are) concerned about their private destiny rather than society as a whole.”

Residents have found Orange County “ethnically and racially unlike the way it was in the past,” Baldassare told a press conference.

“Maybe in the much longer run, people will get used to the fact they are living in a more cosmopolitan area,” Baldassare said. “A lot of this depends on community leadership.”

But Baldassare said politicians are appealing to fears “as a way to get elected to a city office.” He cited no-growth movements in some Orange County cities as examples.

Incomes Up

Nevertheless, “the past five years have seen tremendous strides in Orange County incomes, contributing to a sense of economic optimism and well-being here that far surpasses the nation as a whole,” Baldassare wrote.

A majority--58%--said they expect to be better off financially next year, while only 3% said they felt they would be worse off then. Only 13% described themselves as “not quite comfortable” or “struggling.”

By comparison, only 38% of Americans expect to be better off financially next year, while 10% believe that “they will lose ground,” he said.

The county’s median family income of $41,000 represents an increase of more than twice the rate of inflation since 1980 when the U.S. Census identified the county’s median income as $23,000.

The survey found that 54% of those polled called themselves “middle class,” 31% “upper middle class” and 3% “upper class.” Nationally, four in 10 Americans describe themselves as below middle class and an equal number call themselves middle class, while “very few” identify themselves as “above middle class,” he said.

Given a list of answers to choose from, 38% of those polled chose traffic as the county’s top problem. It also rated number one last year.

Population growth ranked second. But both were perceived by residents to be much greater problems in south Orange County than in other regions.

Views Differ

Views also differed on traffic problems depending on income level. Only 23% of those “below middle class” said traffic is the top problem, contrasted with 42% of the “above middle class” residents polled.

Baldassare said he is unable to pinpoint a single factor triggering fear among residents but found “a snowballing of public concerns on growth and immigration.”

One in three identified immigration as a problem in this year’s survey, contrasted with only 12% last year, he said.

Residents of the south county were most concerned with growth, and those in the central county were most concerned with immigration--the conditions that affect their respective areas more than other regions.

South county residents were most likely to approve a slow-growth initiative, with about 69% in favor compared to 57% in the north, where such a measure received the least support.

“There are some concerns about the future . . . based on some reality,” Baldassare said. As an example, “transportation is not going to become better in this century, it’s going to become worse.”

However, Baldassare added, “I don’t think we are going to see panic selling of homes . . . (or see) businesses not locating here.”

When those surveyed were asked to identify the county’s most important problem, only 15% chose crime, ranking it behind population growth and development, chosen by 20%, and traffic congestion, chosen by 38%. Housing was chosen by only 6%.

“Although housing is not rated as a big problem in Orange County this year . . . (housing) costs increased at a rate higher than inflation and income,” Baldassare noted. A general confidence among consumers coupled with lower interest rates may explain the relatively low ranking for housing problems.

High Mortgages

However, Baldassare noted, “the disproportionately high mortgages in south county testify to the region’s continued popularity among wealthier segments of Orange County’s population.”

“This trend, if continued, will only exacerbate the economic segregation in the county.”

On the bright side, Baldassare said, increasing rents primarily in the older north county may indicate that refurbished housing there could lure county workers who have moved to San Bernardino and Riverside counties to escape high housing costs.

In other findings, the survey showed Orange County residents have more interest in national--rather than local--news, an indication of “the large number of high-status people here,” Baldassare said.

County residents also are more likely to read newspapers than are Americans nationwide, he said. The survey found that 43% said newspapers are their primary source of news while 40% listed television.

In questions gauging “social responsibility,” 73% said it is “very important” to keep informed about news and public issues, considerably more than the 57% who gave similar answers in a 1984 national survey.

But in Orange County only 46% deemed it “very important” to give money to the poor and even fewer, 37%, said it is a “major duty” to volunteer time to community services. Contributions to the arts and culture ranked a distant fourth at 16%.

The survey was funded by contributions and 38 subscribers, including the County of Orange, the United Way, the Fluor Corp., The Times and the Orange County Register. What Orange County Says About: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Orange County families are less troubled by personal finances and their incomes rank above national averages.

ORANGE UNITED ORANGE COUNTY COUNTY STATES MEDIAN INCOME STANDARD OF LIVING More Than Comfortable 26% 4% $50,000 Comfortable 61% 56% $41,000 Not Quite Comfortable 8% 25% $27,000 Struggling 5% 15% $25,000 FINANCIAL WORRIES Never 13% 5% $$48,000 Not Too Often 45% 39% $44,000 Fairly Often 28% 33% $40,000 Very Often 14% 23% $31,000

Source: 1986 Orange County Survey