Caesar Got It on the Ides of March : Et Tu, Robertson, Simon, Et Al?

CHICAGO — The next critical test for this year’s traveling troupe of presidential aspirants comes in northern, industrial Illinois Tuesday, on the infamous Ides of March--the day Brutus abruptly ended Roman dictator Julius Caesar’s political career.

Political soothsayers see Prairie State voters as modern day Brutuses, capable of decisive roles in the futures of both Democratic and Republican White House hopefuls.

Illinois will be the campaigns’ first major test of political strength in an economically, ethnically and racially diverse, politically sophisticated, “rust-belt” state. Burdened by factory closings, above average unemployment and a weak farm economy, Illinois stretches from south of the Mason-Dixon line to a point that would put it in Massachusetts if it were on the East Coast.

Seen as ‘Microcosm’

“It is a microcosm of the nation, a mix of agriculture, mining, industry,” said University of Illinois political scientist Sam Gove.

At stake in the vote are the fifth largest state delegate contingents to the Democratic and Republican nominating conventions. Democrats will elect 113 delegates and Republicans 82, each pledged to a specific candidate on Tuesday. Another 74 Democratic delegates and 10 GOP delegates will be awarded proportionately by state party organizations.

There will also be a separate, non-binding presidential preference, or “beauty contest.” It will be possible for a candidate to win the popular vote but not the delegate vote.

The Illinois primary is unique--it has two resident Democratic candidates, Sen. Paul Simon and the Rev. Jesse Jackson. Simon comes from the southern part of the state, Jackson from Chicago. Each has a well organized home turf constituency, has strong name recognition and has been the beneficiary of weeks of intense--if parochial--local television and press coverage, giving both an advantage over other Democratic candidates.

Illinois is critical to the survival of Kansas Republican Sen. Bob Dole’s candidacy and probably will determine whether Simon remains part of the Democratic drama.

‘Mortal for Dole’

“It’s mortal for Dole,” said University of Chicago political scientist Gary Orfield. “I don’t see how he can possibly survive.”

The Ides of March could foreshadow Republican Pat Robertson’s political fate while providing a Northern testing ground for Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., who became a serious contender for the Democratic nomination after his strong showing on Super Tuesday.

While early forecasts show both Jackson and Simon running strong here, Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis is working hard for at least a third place showing and maybe better. Dukakis, who shared the Super Tuesday spotlight with Jackson and Gore, is believed to have one of the best organized campaigns and will outspend every Democrat with a minimum $500,000 Illinois media budget.

“Dukakis has a lot to gain in Illinois, and Simon has a lot to lose,” said Orfield, who is running as a Simon delegate in Tuesday’s primary. “It’s my hunch . . . the Illinois results will show that Gore was a one-day wonder.”

Jackson, Simon and Dukakis are the only Democrats to have delegate slates in virtually each of the state’s 22 congressional districts.

Buoyed by his showing in the Southern primaries, Gore raced to Chicago on a chartered plane Wednesday morning rather than waiting a few hours for his scheduled commercial flight. Aides say he has also scheduled extra days in Illinois, where his campaign was virtually invisible until Tuesday’s results moved him to center stage.

Gephardt Looks to Michigan

But Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt will make only a token effort for votes in Illinois, virtually conceding the state to Simon and Jackson. Instead, Gephardt will concentrate his resources in neighboring Michigan where Democrats caucus on March 26. “We think that will be the next big showdown on neutral ground,” said Mark Johnson, Gephardt’s national spokesman.

For Simon, the Illinois primary marks a return to visibility after sitting in the Super Tuesday wings. Cash short and weakened by a poor showing last month in New Hampshire, Simon is depending on voter support in the next round of primaries and caucuses in industrial urban states to revive his stalled candidacy. Simon has a broad constituency and is supported by an army of Democratic officeholders who are providing him with a ready-made political infrastructure.

Jackson will remain in the race regardless of how he does in Illinois. A civil rights activist and player in Chicago politics for almost two decades, he is likely to do well in metropolitan Chicago, where Democratic votes are concentrated.

Jackson’s appeal beyond predominantly black congressional districts in metropolitan Chicago will be watched by Illinois Democratic Party leaders weighing his potential for either a statewide office or a 1989 run for mayor of Chicago--perhaps the most powerful public office in Illinois politics.

“If he gets . . . the black vote and 20% of the white vote, what do you think that tells us?” asked Illinois Democratic Party Chairman Vince Demuzio.

Governor Backs Bush

On the Republican side, Dole is desperately trying to keep his candidacy viable in the wake of Vice President George Bush’s Super Tuesday juggernaut. Bush, whose campaign is being headed by Illinois Gov. James R. Thompson, is backed by the state’s suburban Republican Establishment. He is reported to be strong throughout Illinois, with the exception of a narrow band of counties in the central part of the state, where Dole has a pocket of strength.

Dole became the first of the presidential candidates from either party to use television ads, hitting the airwaves on Monday, 24 hours before Bush and less than a day before Dole began campaigning in Chicago.

Robertson, the former religious broadcaster and the only other Republican expected to be in the race, also has full delegate slates across the state, and Daniel H. Scalf, his Illinois campaign manager, boasts of thousands of volunteers. Campaign aides claim that the one-time evangelist has been able to run his campaign free of pressures that hurt other GOP candidates. A fourth GOP candidate, Rep. Jack Kemp of New York, is expected to withdraw from the race today after his poor Super Tuesday showing.

Pressure Denied

“When Gov. Thompson told all the county (Republican) chairmen to endorse George Bush or lose their (state) snow removal money, that hurt Bob Dole and it hurt Jack Kemp but it didn’t hurt Pat Robertson a bit,” Scalf said. “When you’ve got the commitment on the level that we have in our volunteers, there ain’t any pressure the governor can put on any of us.” Thompson’s office, however, has denied any pressure was applied on behalf of Bush.

“The Illinois Republican primary is redundant,” said Thomas F. Roeser, who was helping to head Kemp’s national campaign and who is a longtime GOP activist in Cook County. “Illinois is going to be the frosting on the cake. Super Tuesday was the grand consummation of the Bush effort. Illinois is Dole’s last stand. It’s like the Alamo. It’s all over before it begins.”

Staff writer Bob Secter traveling with the Dole campaign and researcher Wendy Leopold in Chicago contributed to this story.