21st-Century Worker Will Invest in Career, Editor Says

ST. LOUIS —  Because many workers will be unable to afford a single-family home by the year 2000, the major investment for many will be a career, the managing editor of Personnel Journal magazine told a conference here Monday.

Stephanie Lawrence of the Costa-Mesa based magazine made that remark in a speech at the National Conference on Outplacement in St. Louis.

The magazine is the nation’s oldest independent national professional journal on the management of employees.

The price of a single-family home will rise beyond the reach of many workers in a little more than a decade, Lawrence said. Those who are unable to afford homes are expected to invest in their careers instead, spending more on education and training, particularly in vocational and evening programs, she said.

Lawrence delivered several predictions about the work force of the future. She said the cost of education is expected to continue to rise. By the year 2000, a bachelor’s degree from a public college or university is expected to reach $45,000, she said; one from a private school is expected to hit $139,000.

By the year 2000, she said, 85% of the labor force is expected to be working for firms that employ fewer than 200 people. A large part of the population, especially in the professions, is expected to have two jobs, and those second jobs may involve entrepreneurial pursuits.

Another 20 million entry-level jobs are expected by the 21st Century, and 83% of them will be filled by women, minorities and immigrants, she said.

Employers will have fewer professionals available to them, and those who are available will be more independent because they will have a second source of income, she said.

“Employers are expected to be required to make considerable adjustments in such areas as work hours, work environments and benefits in order to attract and keep the type of workers they want,” she told the group.

As for the composition of the work force, Lawrence said women are expected to make up nearly 60% of the labor pool by the end of the century. In addition, she said, women’s salaries are expected to increase dramatically, averaging 85% or more of men’s salaries for comparable work.

Automation of the workplace is not likely to cause wholesale elimination of jobs and may actually increase employment in many cases, Lawrence said.

“It may even produce labor shortages,” she said, “especially of the trained people that will be needed to produce increasingly complex products.”