Wholesale Inflation Up 1.8% in January : Economy: Biggest increase in 15 years attributed to weather-caused rise in food and energy prices.
WASHINGTON — A double wallop delivered to energy and food prices by the holiday cold snap sent wholesale inflation soaring 1.8% in January, the steepest one-month rise in more than 15 years, the government said today.
The spurt in the Labor Department’s producer price index was nearly triple the already brisk 0.6% gain in December. If wholesale inflation persisted at the January pace, it would produce an annual price rise of 24.1%.
The last monthly increase of greater magnitude was recorded in November, 1974, during the OPEC oil embargo, when prices shot up 2% in one month.
Last month’s gain was even steeper than the 1.2% jump predicted by most analysts.
Economists, however, were not overly concerned. January inflation one stop short of the retail level was attributed almost entirely to sharp but temporary increases in the price of fuel oil and vegetables.
The so-called core rate of inflation--prices excluding the volatile food and energy sectors--rose a slight 0.1% in January, the mildest rise since July.
“Without food and energy, commodity price inflation was very low,” said economist Allen Sinai of the Boston Co. “The bad news is the (overall) January number was incredibly high, and consumers will pay higher prices for food and energy for a while longer. The good news is the report suggests much of the activity was weather-related and will diminish in coming months.”
Energy prices in January rose 13.6%, the biggest increase since the Labor Department began compiling that index in 1974. Fuel oil prices were up a startling 25.3%, also the biggest jump on record.
As refineries switched production to fuel oil, supplies of gasoline grew short, sending those prices up 16.7%. Natural gas costs rose a brisk 3.2%.
Food costs, meanwhile, shot up 2.1%, the sharpest rise in six years. The price of fresh and dried vegetable rose 58% for the month, the largest gain recorded since the department began tracking that category in 1967.
Egg prices climbed 12.5% on top of a 9.1% rise in December. Over the last 12 months, egg costs have risen 45.2%. Fruit was up 3.9% and fish rose 6.3%.
The increases were partly offset by substantial declines for other items. Rice dropped 1.1%, pasta 5.8%, chickens 2.8% and turkeys 11.9%.
In other categories, prices rose 2.9% for children’s clothing, 0.8% for men’s and women’s clothing and 0.9% for home electronic equipment.
Despite the big January increase, many economists were expecting wholesale inflation to moderate this year compared with the 4.8% rate last year.
The Bush Administration last week predicted inflation of about 4%, in line with most private forecasts.
“The U.S. economy is on the weakish side . . . and the pressures of slowing demand will continue to keep inflation at least stable and possibly lower over the next year,” said economist Samuel D. Kahan of Fuji Securities Inc. in Chicago. “You might not see a collapse in the inflation rate, but certainly an acceleration seems unlikely.”
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