PEACE DIVIDEND REINVEST IT : A Lifeline to Get Us Off the Rocks : America needs a wholesale conversion, not just cutbacks, of its Cold War economy.

America is twiddling its thumbs as it begins to debate the freeing of possible modest resources from future military budgets. Maybe some, says President Bush, but not much. Maybe more, say others, by the mid- and late-1990s. But the opportunity comes from different sources and is more urgent and richer than they realize. The issue is conversion--creatively planned and on a large scale--not merely cuts.

The “peace dividend” metaphor is a false image; both words are wrong. A dividend is commonly received in the mail by affluent people, at leisure, and banked for future luxuries. The United States, however, is in serious distress, sinking deeper into international economic mediocrity and debt.

Military conversion offers a lifeline, not just a bonus. Experts agree that diverting research and development, capital and millions of workers to the military has retarded the U.S. economy, as the Japanese and West Germany successes show by contrast. Redirecting military resources offers the only large, foreseeable new source of national competitive strength.

A large shift is possible and involves especially valuable resources for science, new products, managerial excellence, new capital and plain productive power. Though the resources are “only” about 7% of our gross national product, they are critical to raising productivity. Getting them out of indulgent military contracts and onto the open market is widely expected to sharpen the productive mentality and methods of industry in a broader range of markets.

The second error is to believe that “peace” is new, that it arises only from the changes in Eastern Europe. The awesome Soviet military assets are still there, it is said, and any reversion to a new Stalinism would restore the Cold War threat, catching us off guard. Better keep our military large and “strong,” just in case.

A wide body of new research shows that the threat of military conquest or nuclear blackmail has been virtually nonexistent since at least Stalin’s death in 1953 and probably since 1943, when the tide turned in World War II. There has never been a real possibility that nuclear missiles would force our “surrender,” or that Soviet tanks would roll across Western Europe. The age of conquest for true national gain ceased with Adolf Hitler; indeed, his failure proved the point beyond any serious doubt.

Yet militant “anti-communism” prevailed, and the military sector drained huge flows of resources from the economy. Ironically, the weapons themselves became the main source of danger, from the risks of mad or mistaken attacks. They did not “keep the peace,” which already existed between the superpowers.

In the Kafkaesque world of Cold Warriors, strength caused economic weakness, “allies” (the Philippines, Turkey and others) drained vital national resources, weapons for “security” caused insecurity, and parts of the U.S. economy became hooked on the narcotic of uncompetitive military spending.

U.S. leadership is now in the addict’s stage of denial. They say that there is no problem, that the military extravagances of the 1980s were necessary to intimidate the Soviets, that the wastes were really modest and that no major changes are needed and so on. These attitudes are blocking us from the obvious, rich solutions. We need to advance to the cure phase, where withdrawal is rapid and a new life is carefully constructed, free of the military drug.

This is the Administration’s historic opportunity. Other leaders dream about such a chance, where virtually everybody can be a winner. Bush has it in his hands, but there are disturbing signs that nothing is being done.

The task is twofold: first, to understand the magnificent scope of this opportunity, which has been there all along during the functionless Cold War; second, to mount a comprehensive New Era program for redirecting critical resources.

This prodigious opportunity is immediate, like an 80-yard pass when the home team is behind late in the game. Will Bush and Congress fumble, as it now seems? Do they understand the urgency, the opportunity? The future of 250 million people hangs on their actions.