U.S. Arab Allies Skeptical of Bush Offer for Iraq Talks : Diplomacy: Some fear that Hussein will pry a wedge in the international alliance and attain a compromise on Kuwait.

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia —  Arab leaders have greeted recent moves to set up direct talks between the United States and Iraq with substantial skepticism, and representatives of the multinational military force here are predicting that war will be the final outcome of this latest diplomatic initiative.

U.S. officials characterize President Bush’s invitation for an exchange of visits by top foreign-policy officials as a last chance to convince Iraqi President Saddam Hussein of the formidable odds against him. However, some Arab officials fear that Iraq could seize on the dialogue to pry a wedge in the international alliance and gain ground toward a compromise regarding Kuwait, which it invaded Aug. 2.

“If the talks are going to liberate Kuwait and avoid the war, that will be fantastic. But you have to know the psychology of the Iraqis. Iraq may see this as an opportunity to split the alliance,” said one leading Persian Gulf diplomat.

“Let’s be frank,” he declared. “We don’t want war. Nobody wants war. We will be maybe more the losers than the Americans, who may lose casualties, but we will lose everything. But that doesn’t mean to give up Kuwait to the Iraqi regime.”

Western officials here who are backing the dialogue insist there will be no options tendered by Secretary of State James A. Baker III other than a complete withdrawal of Iraqi forces from Kuwait. But even those most optimistic about the talks admitted that a peaceful settlement remains unlikely.

“What I hope is that Baker can give a more convincing rendition to Saddam, and he therefore realizes the error of his ways. But I am frankly very pessimistic that will happen,” said a Western diplomat allied with the multinational forces in Saudi Arabia.

“I think that in fact . . . Hussein still feels that he has sufficient control over his people that even if their sacrifice is greater than ours in terms of casualties, in the end his people will endure that burden better than we will endure ours,” he said.

“I think one thing Saddam has not calculated is the speed with which we can attack. . . . I suspect that President Bush would have a week to two weeks before he would face severe repercussions in terms of the casualty reports at home, and whatever time period that is, it’s not going to be long enough for Saddam Hussein.”

The message from multinational force leaders here is that no options for compromise exist until Iraq complies with the full text of U.N. Security Council resolutions demanding a complete withdrawal from Kuwait.

“He’s going to pull all the way out, the Sabahs (Kuwaiti ruling family) have to be restored, the hostages have to be released and there’s nothing that’s going to be negotiated until that happens,” one Western envoy said. “He either withdraws or he doesn’t, and if he doesn’t, we’re looking at a war.”

Arab political leaders and intellectuals remain split over the advisability of going to war, but a large number of Saudis say plainly that the world has already waited too long.

“We are not warmongers. But war is a continuation of diplomacy, and it is the last resort when politics fail,” said Wahid Hashem, a columnist and political science professor at King Abdulaziz University in Jidda.

“I think the time is now. In August, I thought it would be two weeks, three weeks before we entered into Kuwait, and now we are three months? The more we are philosophizing, the more we are losing time and the more he gets entrenched in Kuwait,” said another Saudi with close ties to the government.

Some Arabs have complained that the United States was premature in extending the dialogue invitation to Iraq so soon after passage of the U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing the use of force to dislodge Iraqi troops after Jan. 15, 1991.

“There’s some feeling that Bush is kind of killing the resolution of the Security Council. He should have waited two or three days just to see what the Iraqi reaction would be,” said one gulf area official. “There’s sentiment as if he wanted to reduce the tension. Why? You see, the Arab world, they don’t trust the Americans. . . . They think all of this is starting to sell (out) Kuwait.”

Several Arab officials said they are convinced that Hussein will use the talks as a means of introducing new complications into the picture, such as an offer to partially withdraw from Kuwait or to release the hostages pending more negotiations.

“The grace period between now and Jan. 15 will be utilized by Saddam getting all sorts of rabbits and pigeons out of his political hat,” Salman Abdul-Razek Mutawa, Kuwait’s exiled minister of planning, said in an interview. “Saddam Hussein will use all the tricks available. He will fill the 45 days with 90 items, and maybe before the zero hour, he may appear with yet another half-baked idea. He will pull at any rope that is thrown to him.”

Some gulf officials expressed fears that such Iraqi offers could allow the Jan. 15 deadline to come and go, eventually leaving Kuwaitis themselves so despondent that they will begin pushing for compromise.

“I tell you very frankly what I fear: If the 15th of January arrives and nothing happens, Kuwait will lose hope, will lose patience,” said one Arab diplomat. “We will see some pressure from the Kuwaiti people to have some compromise, from people saying I prefer to have half of the house than being totally out.”

Indeed, both the Saudis and the Kuwaitis have left open the possibility of full negotiations with Iraq on border and financial disputes after a complete withdrawal from Kuwait.

“Negotiations are not ruled out after a complete withdrawal; there will be some things to negotiate, to work out between Iraq and Kuwait,” Mutawa said.

“All that is up to the Kuwaitis. Any deals the Kuwaitis make, as long as our demands are met, including guarantees that such a thing would never happen again, are OK,” said a Saudi government official.

Both the Saudi and Kuwaiti governments have officially welcomed Bush’s dialogue proposal despite some private reservations. “Bush wants to give the Iraqis another chance,” a Saudi official explained. “There are too many people who are saying you didn’t give the guy a chance. You didn’t even talk to him.”

Western officials rejected fears expressed by some Kuwaitis and other Arabs that Kuwait could become another Palestine, left to years of fruitless negotiations and no ultimate resolution.

“As long as there are hundreds of thousands of troops here in Saudi Arabia, while the oil price goes up and down, nobody’s going to forget about it. We’re not going to forget about it while there are hostages there. Too many people are involved, very directly, for that to happen,” said one Western envoy.

Western officials also rejected assertions that the United States is allowing Iraq to wrest away control of the situation in the gulf. To the contrary, said one official, “The U.S. has had the benefit of seizing the initiative without having some side actor come up with yet another peace plan, of having the calendar of events be dictated from Washington, rather than Baghdad, which is about time.”

Privately, some officials expressed hope that a Baker visit to Baghdad could, if not persuade Hussein to withdraw, perhaps convince some of his lieutenants that the Iraqi president is leading the nation on a ruinous expedition.

“I don’t think Saddam will be scared lightly, but I hope some people around him will have some second thoughts, including the Iraqi people,” said one official.

A senior Western official here said the key to avoiding war is the West’s determination to firmly hold onto the military solution as an option over the next few critical weeks.

“It is not a question of being optimistic or pessimistic,” he said. “It’s a question of being resolute or not.

“If the international community keeps very resolute, and (keeps) threatening to resort to force if they don’t withdraw, I think there is a good chance for peace. If there are trends trying to make peace at any cost, at any price, showing there might be some disunity in the community, then in my view there is no choice for peace. It is as simple as that.”