O.C. Conservatives Hearing Footfalls in Primary Race

Orange County political leaders are preparing for one of the strangest election days they’ve ever seen.

There have never been more registered voters in Orange County. Competition for state and federal offices has rarely been greater. And the election results could signal a dramatic shift in the county’s political profile.

But still, many of Orange County’s races appear to be nearly invisible to most residents. And as a result, strategists believe voters are so bored or frustrated that the primary could see one of the lowest turnouts in at least a decade.

Orange County Registrar of Voters Donald F. Tanney declined to make his usual prediction of voter turnout this year because the electorate is so volatile. But Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach), who is defending his own seat and helping candidates in two other races, forecast a turnout as low as 35%.

One factor is the lack of any high-powered initiatives on Tuesday’s ballot. Another is that the presidential contest has generated little interest since President Bush and Democrat Bill Clinton have essentially locked up their party’s nominations.

But California is often an afterthought in the presidential primary, though in a normal year half of the county’s voters go to the polls.

“It’s almost like this is a big bore for people,” Ferguson said. “The most exciting thing going on is Ross Perot, and he’s not on the ballot.”

Thomas Fuentes, chairman of the county Republican Party, agreed.

“I just haven’t seen the hootin’ and shoutin’ that normally precedes high voter turnout elections,” he said. “So far, the momentum has, to my sense, been rather modest.”

While most of the county is cool to the election, however, there are some hot spots.

In Santa Ana and Garden Grove, political activists around the country are watching a showdown between veteran conservative Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove) and GOP challenger Judith M. Ryan, a former Orange County Superior Court judge.

Nationally, this race is a key test for the ballot-box power of abortion-rights groups, women candidates and anti-incumbent attitudes.

It is also one of several races in Orange County that will determine, in part, whether the county’s delegations in Sacramento and Washington remain staunchly conservative. Except for lone Democrat Assemblyman Tom Umberg of Garden Grove, all of Orange County’s state and federal lawmakers are opposed to abortion rights.

“This is the first time in memory that you see a real concerted attack against the conservative candidates in every race,” said Steve Brody, Orange County head of the California Republican Assembly, a conservative grass-roots organization. “It’s a do-or-die, to be honest.”

Ferguson and Fuentes also acknowledged the numerous challenges to conservative Republicans throughout the county, including several from moderate GOP women. But, like Brody, they predicted that the challenges would fail.

“The tradition among Republicans in Orange County is a conservative one,” Fuentes said.

For Democrats, the latest registration figures show the party has slipped since 1990 to just more than a third of the Orange County electorate. Nearly 55% of the county’s voters are Republican, the highest GOP ratio in the state.

Still, Democrats are also seeing more candidates running in primaries than usual.

Once again, Dornan’s turf in the 46th Congressional District is the hottest spot since five Democrats are competing for the same seat. In the coastal 45th Congressional District, four Democrats are on the ballot.

“Here, the Republicans are the longtime incumbents,” said Howard Adler, chairman of the county Democratic Party. “If voters are upset with politicians, we believe that spills over to these Republican longtime incumbents.”

Despite the lack of public interest, political leaders will be closely watching the results Tuesday night for signs of where the county is headed. Here is a glance at some of the key Orange County races:

46th CONGRESSIONAL: Controversial Race for Dornan, Ryan

In the last two weeks, this Republican primary has exploded with activity.

In addition to the heavily funded campaigns for Dornan and Ryan, the National Abortion Rights Action League has launched a major effort to unseat the incumbent. As a result, voters have been deluged with more than a dozen letters in as many days, as well as radio and newspaper ads, phone calls and door-to-door visits.

Combined, the campaigns have already spent well over half a million dollars.

The strategies of both candidates are evident in their campaign mail. Dornan has sought to portray Ryan as a single-issue candidate controlled by liberal special interests. Ryan’s camp has charged Dornan with being ineffective in Congress and unresponsive to the needs of his district.

In one recent exchange of mail, both candidates complained about their opponent’s home.

A Ryan letter pictured Dornan’s house in Virginia (he also has one in Garden Grove) with the caption: “Bob Dornan does not experience Orange County crime--his estate is well protected.”

Dornan responded with a letter noting that Ryan lives in a large home in Yorba Linda, outside of the 46th Congressional District boundaries. His letter pictured a street sign with one arrow pointing toward “Judy Ryan’s mansion” and another toward the congressional district.

House members are not required to live in their districts.

Dornan has also sought to counter Ryan’s claim that he is not supportive of women’s issues by mailing letters with endorsements from GOP women. And recently, he aimed at his conservative base with a press release supporting Vice President Dan Quayle’s attack on the television show “Murphy Brown” for its program about a baby born out of wedlock.

45th CONGRESSIONAL: Rohrabacher Faces 2 Council Members

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher has gotten everything he never wanted from “the Peters.”

Peter F. Buffa, a Costa Mesa councilman, and Huntington Beach Councilman Peter M. Green have given Rohrabacher a spirited test. They have battered him over the eight checks he bounced at the House bank (Rohrabacher says all except one were due to bank errors), charged he misused congressional mailing privileges (the congressman says he has not) and suggested the two-term incumbent is a carpetbagger because, until recently, Rohrabacher had not been registered to vote in the county (his old district before reapportionment had a Long Beach base).

Of late, Green has been content to run a modest, grass-roots campaign stressing his solid credentials as an environmentalist (he is a biology professor at Golden West College), fiscal conservative and supporter of abortion rights.

Buffa, however, has been on the attack pretty much throughout, flooding the airwaves with radio ads, sending out a slew of political mailers and smothering the district with signs.

Over the weekend, Buffa aired a radio spot featuring Michael Reagan, son of the former President, decrying Rohrabacher’s claims that he was instrumental in helping devise the policy that helped end the Cold War.

Never one to back away from a good tussle, Rohrabacher has responded by charging that both Buffa and Green are basically liberal Democrats in disguise (both men had been registered Democrats in the past).

Last week he asked the FBI to investigate his suspicions of election fraud by Buffa, charging that the candidate’s campaign manager is illegally bankrolling the effort. Buffa has scoffed at the claims, saying he simply still owes the campaign manager money.

In addition, Rohrabacher has received plenty of attention for his stance on illegal immigration, particularly after he suggested that illegal immigrants are bankrupting the nation by streaming across the border to tap a package of health and educational “goodies” available in the United States. Rohrabacher has called for stronger enforcement of immigration laws and has introduced a bill to make it easier to deport illegal immigrants.

67th ASSEMBLY: Three Republicans Vying for Seat

Three conservative Republican Assembly members are running in Tuesday’s primary for the same district, representing Orange County’s northwest corner.

The candidates are Doris Allen (R-Cypress), Nolan Frizzelle (R-Fountain Valley) and Tom Mays (R-Huntington Beach).

Since the candidates have shared many of the same supporters in the past, some key Republican groups and individuals have decided to stay out of the race rather than choose sides against an ally. As a result, the race has not made a big splash.

The most recent campaign finance statements, however, indicate that some major special-interest groups are making large contributions for Allen and Mays. Frizzelle had barely a third of the campaign money reported by his two opponents.

About half of Allen’s money came from education and labor groups that have actually been traditional supporters of Democratic candidates. Allen said she is proud of the contributions because they are recognition of her strong support for education issues.

Mays has raised nearly as much as Allen with some strong support from state medical groups.

70th ASSEMBLY: Race Pits Mayor Against Ferguson

Until last week, it looked like this race was going to be a coronation for conservative Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach).

But primary challenger Mary Hornbuckle, the mayor of Costa Mesa, got a sudden influx of more than $80,000 in campaign cash from medical and labor groups. One contribution for $40,000 came from a Sacramento political action committee--the Committee of Working Californians for an Effective Legislature--whose treasurer is the attorney for the state Democratic Party.

The result was a rash of last-minute hit mailers against Ferguson, which sought to portray “Cadillac Gil” as an ineffective legislator bent more on ideological campaigns than aiding his district on the central Orange County coast.

Ferguson reacted to the mailers with disgust, saying he was shocked by the “sleazy” nature of his opponent’s last-minute campaigning and calling for an investigation of Hornbuckle’s tactics.

He also boasts that he has contributed much to the district, working to garner money for roads, helping establish a Caltrans district just for Orange County and pushing for conservative causes that are important to his constituents.

Hornbuckle, who recently got a visit from the president of the National Organization for Women, has cast herself as a Republican fiscal conservative who supports abortion rights, a sharp contrast to Ferguson’s staunch anti-abortion stance.

73rd ASSEMBLY: Eight Newcomers Rise to Challenge

The tentacles of Sacramento politics have wrapped around the Republican primary pitting eight newcomers to statewide politics for this district, which stretches between southern Orange and north San Diego counties.

Several of the candidates have benefited from big contributions from Sacramento legislators and political action committees, most notably Oceanside attorney Bill Morrow, a conservative Christian who has raised more than $150,000 so far, including $80,000 from college chum state Sen. Frank Hill (R-Whittier) and $20,000 from Assemblyman Ross Johnson (R-Brea). Foes say it’s part of a statewide effort to elect evangelical Christians and add to Johnson’s influence in Sacramento.

But other candidates have also benefited from Sacramento’s largess. Laguna Niguel Councilwoman Patricia C. Bates has gotten support from Ferguson, while Dana Point Mayor Mike Eggers has received cash from various doctors groups. San Juan Capistrano attorney Carlos Negrete has reaped some money from the California Trial Lawyers Assn., although most of his campaign is being financed by a $60,000 loan to himself.

Carlsbad Mayor Claude (Bud) Lewis and Oceanside Councilman Sam Williamson have steered clear of the Sacramento gold rush, but could be hurt because their north San Diego County base makes up only 40% of the district’s registered voters.

Meanwhile, Saddleback Community College Trustee Iris Swanson has been running a low-budget campaign and championing herself as a true citizen politician not beholden to Sacramento special interests.

GOING FOR A KNOCKOUT: Dornan, Ryan take last-minute shots at each other. B1

Tuesday’s Election: An Overview

California will hold its primary election on Tuesday with 2,059 polling places open for voting in Orange County.

On the ballot statewide, California voters will choose their party nominees for President and two U.S. Senate seats.

Locally, all of the seats in Congress and the state Assembly are up for election this year, as well as half of the state Senate seats.

There are also two state initiatives for education financing on the ballot. In addition, Orange County voters will decide a measure to limit fund raising for elected county officials.

The polls open at 7 a.m. Tuesday and close at 8 p.m.

For information about voting, call the Orange County Registrar of Voters office at (714) 567-7600.