Baker Campaign Role Near, Bush Aides Say : Republicans: He is expected to become senior White House counselor for both politics and policy.

WASHINGTON —  President Bush is now all but certain to install Secretary of State James A. Baker III in a senior White House position that will enable him to take charge of Bush’s lagging reelection campaign, high-ranking sources said Tuesday.

The switch would represent a significant shift in thinking by Bush, who friends describe as reluctant to acknowledge his need for assistance in what he had once expected to be a straightforward bid for a second term.

But senior advisers said the depth of the President’s plight had taken hold in the last week as polls showed Democrat Bill Clinton of Arkansas outpacing Bush by a 2-1 margin. And they predicted that Bush’s hunger to win reelection would overcome his qualms at having to turn once again to Baker for help.

“It does seem like it’s a done deal,” a senior Bush campaign official said Tuesday night. Another source described the atmosphere among Bush advisers as “not if, but when” Baker will take over the campaign.

The expected shake-up would move Baker into an extraordinary role as Bush’s top adviser on matters of both politics and policy. Although his title is expected to be senior White House counselor, it would put on his shoulders the responsibility for setting the course in what is now clearly an uphill reelection battle for Bush.

The White House and Bush campaign officials who described the impending move cautioned that they did not know whether the post had actually been offered to Baker. But they described a sense of expectation within the Bush camp in which strategists have become resigned to a top-level switch.

“I think it’s going to happen,” a top-ranking Bush adviser said. “But no one can be absolutely sure.”

The return of Baker to the role as the top White House strategist would mark an encore performance for the man who ran Bush’s unsuccessful 1980 presidential campaign and who in 1988 left his post as Treasury secretary to take charge of a troubled Bush campaign.

Administration officials said it remained uncertain whether Baker would be permitted to take a leave of absence from his State Department post, as he is understood to prefer, or whether he would be asked to accept a formal transfer to the White House.

But they said it appeared likely that Chief of Staff Samuel K. Skinner would be permitted to keep his post--albeit in the highly unusual position of being effectively subordinate to Baker.

And a top Bush campaign official said that neither Skinner, nor campaign general chairman Robert M. Teeter, nor campaign manager Frederic V. Malek had been informed about any plans for changes.

But the officials noted that neither Bush nor Baker has done anything in the last week to discourage reports that a shake-up is imminent. And they described an atmosphere of anticipation within the campaign in which major strategic decisions have been postponed for the expected Baker takeover.

Senior Bush advisers said it was unlikely that Baker would be named to the job before he concludes his current trip to the Middle East. But one official said there had been discussion within the White House of a scenario that might see him return to the United States in time to meet with Bush this weekend at his summer home in Kennebunkport, Me.

In any case, the top-ranking sources said there was now little doubt within the Bush camp that Baker would be at the helm of the campaign as it heads into the Republican National Convention, which begins Aug. 17.

The expectant atmosphere within the Bush camp resembles a mood that has taken hold among White House advisers during previous periods of concern over lack of action.

For nearly eight months, the strategists have been poised for the political breakthrough that might result from any of a series of moves, including the ouster of then-Chief of Staff John H. Sununu, the debate over whether to put forward an economic growth package, and the decision as to whether Bush should attack his political opponents.

Bush advisers cautioned Tuesday that they expected Baker to bring no magic formula to the Bush campaign. But they said the secretary of state’s political savvy and longtime friendship with Bush would bring qualities lacking in the current campaign.

“What Bush needs is some colleague-to-colleague advice,” a senior strategist said. The official suggested that neither Teeter nor Skinner--who have functioned as co-managers of the Bush reelection effort--have been able to bring such rapport to the campaign.

Deputy Secretary of State Lawrence S. Eagleburger, a 30-year State Department veteran, was thought to be the most likely candidate to replace Baker, assuming the title of acting secretary.