Violent Crime Rate

In response to “Nation’s Violent Crime Rate Climbs 3.6%,” Aug. 30:

It is appalling that our nation’s top law enforcement officer either knows so little about the causes of crime--or has such a low opinion of the public’s knowledge. As any freshman criminology student could tell U.S. Atty. Gen. William P. Barr, changes in violent crime rates during the past three decades were influenced far more by demographics than by government action. In any society, adolescents and young adults are much more prone to commit--and be victims of--violent and property crimes. Thus, U.S. crime rates increased dramatically during the ‘60s and ‘70s as the baby-boom generation packed the high-crime 15-29 age group. As they aged, overall crime rates should have declined.

Yet, Barr finds comfort in the fact that the nation’s violent crime rate has increased significantly less (“only” 22.7%) from 1980-90 than during the previous two decades. And he attributes the diminished rate of increase to changes in imprisonment policies.

There’s not much political hay to be made from the fact that our population is aging. And if Barr acknowledged the age-crime link, he might have to explain why the annual rate of increase for violent crimes during this period was on average 40% greater than that for property crimes. Answering this question might require the Bush Administration to face the possibility that increased violent street crime is an unintended and undesirable consequence of the war on drugs.

BRYAN J. VILA, Assistant Professor

Dept. of Criminology, Law and Society

UC Irvine