Commuters See Clear Signs of Progress Ahead : Survey: Traffic congestion, the No. 1 concern of half of county residents in 1987, now is cited by only 11%. Measure M improvements and poor economy--meaning fewer cars on road--made the difference.

HUNTINGTON BEACH —  Like many Orange County residents, David Meirovitz is often stuck in traffic. But compared to a few years ago, Meirovitz is less concerned about congestion and more worried about simply surviving his commute intact.

“Traffic is not appreciably worse, but crime is,” Meirovitz, a dentist, said while lunching near his office here. “I may be upset that it takes me five extra minutes in traffic, but I’d rather get to where I’m going than be carjacked, mugged or the victim of a drive-by shooting.”

Meirovitz’s feelings reflect the findings of the UCI Annual Survey, a telephone canvassing of 1,007 adults released last week. It reported that traffic, which six years ago was the top concern of Orange County residents, has been eclipsed by crime, the economy and immigration.

In the 1987 survey, 50% ranked traffic as the county’s top problem. In the latest poll, only 11% did so.

In 1986, a record 70% said congestion was a problem in their commute. That figure stands at 50% in 1993--the lowest level in the poll’s 11-year history.

Does the credit go to the $314 million in transportation projects completed or started in the past 18 months with money from Measure M, the county’s half-cent sales tax for traffic improvements?

Yes, partly, experts say.

But they also refer to the well-worn Bill Clinton campaign mantra: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

UCI professor Mark Baldassare, who co-directs the annual survey with Cheryl Katz, said the primary factor is the diversion of the public’s attention to crime and the economy.

“The second factor is a less fully employed work force,” said Baldassare. “There are probably fewer cars on the road.”

Indeed, traffic counts do show a decline. The state Department of Transportation has an annual index of traffic volume for Orange County freeways and state highways that shows a steady annual increase through 1990, peaking with a rise of 7.4% in 1988, just as county voters were confronted with a slow-growth and traffic-control ballot initiative.

But in 1991, as recession gripped the Orange County economy and unemployment rose, Caltrans’ index recorded a one-year drop in traffic volume of 2.1% in Orange County; that was before any Measure M projects were completed.

Further year-to-year decreases of less than 1% were recorded in 1992 and 1993.

Such declines represent a familiar pattern, according to traffic engineers such as Caltrans’ Kirk Patel. He and other experts have long noted that traffic drops off in bad times, but increases with economic recovery. The same has been true of public transit ridership.

Baldassare added that there are other factors at work too. “There have been some reductions in solo driving which may have an impact on the amount of traffic, and there has been the addition of some car-pool lanes on the freeways,” he said. “It’s hard to say how much is attributable to each of these factors--there are several things going on.”

To be sure, county motorists have benefited from several traffic projects during the past four years. Measure M financed the addition of car-pool lanes to the Orange Freeway, “smart street” improvements on Beach Boulevard, improved signal coordination on several thoroughfares, and the recent start of the El Toro “Y” remodeling effort.

State, federal and local funds helped pay for car-pool lanes on the Santa Ana and San Diego freeways, commuter rail service, the opening of Newport Coast Drive and an extension of the Costa Mesa Freeway.

And a segment of the Foothill toll road opened near Lake Forest.

Stan Oftelie, chief executive officer of the Orange County Transportation Authority, which oversees county roadwork, conceded that construction on such projects also cause delays for some commuters.

But the sight of so much roadwork, Oftelie added, also changes people’s mind-set. “I think it’s a perception,” Oftelie said. “You see traffic slow down during construction, but there’s also the belief that it will get better, because finally transportation solutions are being done.”

Caltrans engineers say it’s difficult to measure the combined impact of all these traffic improvements. Freeway improvements, for example, tend to reduce traffic congestion initially, but pent-up demand later takes its toll as people who once avoided the route and took surface streets decide instead to return to the freeway.

Over time, traffic engineers have seen this pattern: Generally, freeway fixes don’t mean less congestion at the height of the evening rush. But peak congestion doesn’t last as long. “I think people are seeing tangible improvements,” OCTA’s Oftelie said. “In 1988-89 people were coming to grips with what the traffic solutions should be, and how land use and transportation should be linked.”

“In 1993,” Oftelie said, “people see that it’s happening.”

Meirovitz, who commutes daily from Anaheim to Huntington Beach, cited another factor in the public’s reordered concerns: television news. “Crime is dominating the airwaves,” he said. “When was the last time you saw a traffic story?”

Auto Angst Abates Traffic is beginning to take a back seat to other concerns in Orange County. And commuters are more optimistic than they have been in a decade. Traffic as Top Problem Residents’ obsession with traffic woes has dwindled since 1987, when half thought it was the most important public policy issue facing the county. 1993: 11% Daily Drive Improves Half of all commuters now say their journey to work is no problem, the highest portion since 1982. And the percentage saying their commute has worsened has declined significantly since 1989:

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1989 1991 1993 No problem at all 47% 41% 40% 39% 30% 36% 40% 50% Somewhat of a problem 40 41 35 33 40 36 41 34 Great problem 13 18 25 28 30 28 19 16

1982 Gotten better: 3% Gotten worse: 39% Stayed about same: 58% 1989 Gotten better: 6% Gotten worse: 60% Stayed about same: 34% 1993 Gotten better: 9% Gotten worse: 42% Stayed about same: 49% Source: Orange County Annual Surveys, UCI