PLATFORM : Animal Warnings

Pets and wild animals are known to make strange sounds and behave in unusual ways before an earthquake--sometimes hours before. Scientists don’t yet know why.

Some friends of mine in Bel-Air were horrified, on the Sunday evening before the Northridge quake, when 13 large rats invaded their home by way of a pet door. Chasing them out was a harrowing experience, and my friends went to bed exhausted--only to be awakened at 4:31 a.m.

There are similar examples from around the world, ancient and modern. We humans should take advantage of this behavior of our fellow creatures in preparing for “the Big One.”

Threatened areas could form a special “quake district” with residents alerted to call in strange animal behavior to an information center. Seismologists would make regular reports to the center on geological and physical evidence of an impending quake, such as changes in magnetic or electrical fields and in well-water levels.

A pre-selected group of experts would review any flurry of such reports and decide whether to call a quake alert. If they decided there was, say, a 60% or greater probability of a quake within the next 12 hours, sirens would sound and media would broadcast a warning. Public-safety employees would immediately report for work. Volunteer wardens would empty dangerous buildings; relief agencies would prepare emergency housing.

If an alert turned out to be a false alarm, its expense could be justified as a public drill to test our preparedness.

Such a program will meet resistance, of course, mainly because it is not “scientific.” Voters can organize to pressure politicians and educate fellow voters. I have started a group called the Southern California Assn. to Reduce Earthquake Damage--SCARED, for short. Its motto: “Scared of the Big One? Join the club.”