NEWS ANALYSIS : Likely Faceoff in Japan May Be Clash of Titans

TOKYO —  The two men who would be Japan’s next prime minister--Ryutaro Hashimoto, the president of the nation’s largest party, and opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa--promise a clash of political titans not seen here for decades.

Liberal Democratic Party President Hashimoto--the quick-witted and sharp-tongued international trade and industry minister who has won election 11 times and held major Cabinet posts--is the ruling coalition’s favorite going into a special parliamentary session this week to elect a successor to Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama, who abruptly resigned Friday.

But challenger Ozawa, a longtime LDP tactician who bolted the party in 1993 and now heads the opposition New Frontier Party, is regarded as possibly the most visionary politician in Japan. He is also a masterful strategist with a proven record of delivering electoral victories for followers--a talent that counts for more than brilliant policy or telegenic appeal here.

The emergence of two such formidable leaders underscores an undeniable shift in Japan’s traditional political culture, where shadowy puppeteers have typically manipulated pleasant-looking front men. The media here have pounced on the political theater with “Hashimoto versus Ozawa” comparisons, and even old Japan hands who normally pooh-pooh the notion of change declare that a new political dynamic is afoot.

“The fact that two parties can come up with such strong leaders is a big change 50 years after the war,” said Kuniko Inoguchi, a Sophia University political science professor. Referring to a national wariness of strong leaders stemming from Japan’s militaristic past, Inoguchi added, “I think there is a growing consensus that it is no longer dangerous to have politicians with strong personalities.”

Actually, Japan has produced several strong leaders since World War II who enjoyed broad public support, such as former Prime Ministers Kakuei Tanaka and Yasuhiro Nakasone. But most prime ministers have been figureheads and the opposition leaders patently ineffective.

Not so with Hashimoto and Ozawa--who were urged to run precisely because they represent a strong, decisive image amid Japan’s economic malaise.

The two men share some striking similarities. Both Hashimoto, 58, and Ozawa, 53, are graduates of Keio University, a prestigious private school. Both inherited their political machines from their fathers in their first runs for national office--Hashimoto in 1963 and Ozawa in 1967. Most important, both studied at the feet of the same master: Tanaka, the late LDP godfather who honed to an art the practice of securing political loyalty with money and positions.

And both men, U.S. analysts say, will be better for the United States than the genial but ineffective Murayama. Hashimoto, in remarks shortly after Murayama’s resignation, said U.S.-Japan relations would be the new Cabinet’s top priority.

But, based on track records, Ozawa appears to be favored by U.S. policymakers.

“In terms of level of cooperation in resolving issues, the general view in Washington is that Ozawa has been more helpful,” said Glen Fukushima, vice president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan. “The view of Hashimoto is that, maybe in the end, as with auto parts, he’ll settle the issue. But it will be rough going getting there.”

Knowledgeable sources paint these contrasting records:

The first time Hashimoto, as finance minister, met then-U.S. Ambassador Michael Armacost in 1989, he dumbfounded observers by responding to requests for cooperation with a biting lecture: that the United States still viewed itself as the victor and Japan as a vanquished nation, that America was not a benefactor but a rival.

Although Hashimoto’s tough line against U.S. Trade Representative Mickey Kantor during auto talks last year is by now famous, he also gave little ground during negotiations to open the bidding process to foreign companies for the Kansai Airport project near Osaka, one former U.S. official said.

Ozawa, by contrast, broke through one logjam after another to broker settlements with the United States on construction, telecommunications, citrus and beef, officials say.

He was also the driving force in obtaining Japan’s financial support for the Persian Gulf War effort after the Foreign Ministry and then-Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu gave U.S. requests a lukewarm reception. (Hashimoto, as finance minister, is also credited with steering the $13-billion contribution through the bureaucracy.)

While Hashimoto is regarded as a supporter of bureaucrats, Ozawa clearly dominates them. One former U.S. official recalled at least two negotiations--dealing with construction in 1988 and telecommunications in 1989--in which bureaucrats began hemming and hawing and objecting to American points raised. Ozawa turned to them and barked, “You guys, shut up,” then hammered out a compromise.

“I think he was very confident about Japan and therefore he didn’t think small concessions would hurt,” the official said, describing Ozawa’s attitude as: “If it’s so important to the U.S., give it to them.”

With relatively few trade issues on the agenda this year, with Washington turned inward due to the presidential election and with both Ozawa and Hashimoto firm supporters of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, bilateral issues are not expected to loom large--barring a flare-up in the furor over American bases on Okinawa.

But Hashimoto’s combative stance remains widely admired by many Japanese fed up with kowtowing to U.S. demands. Supporters say he is a better listener than the more dictatorial Ozawa. And his suave manner and matinee-idol good looks--he smokes cigarettes from a holder and pomades his hair--have it over Ozawa, who once lamented he was cursed with an ugly face.

Analysts also say that Hashimoto could be the more effective agent of change precisely because he has spent long years gleaning knowledge and gaining bureaucratic supporters as minister of health and welfare, transportation, finance and, now, international trade and industry.

The question, however, is whether he has the will to do so.

“Hashimoto can’t change anything, because he is bound and strangled by the establishment,” said Haruo Shimada, a Keio University economics professor.

There is no doubt that Ozawa’s vision of reform is bolder than Hashimoto’s. In a 27-point platform, Ozawa lays out dramatic policies: a 50% income tax cut in exchange for a 10% consumption tax increase to make Japan less dependent on workers’ contributions in a rapidly aging society; a special U.N. police force to enable Japan to participate in global peacekeeping ventures without running afoul of the peace constitution; a reduction in the central ministries to 15 in favor of more local control by 300 super-cities; stronger political control of the bureaucracy.

“I don’t think Ozawa will ever be given a leadership position, but I think he is the true bellwether of where strategic thinking is going in Japan,” said Chalmers Johnson, president of the Japan Policy Research Institute based in San Diego.

But whether any of this matters is, at the moment, unclear, Johnson and others say.

That’s because Hashimoto, however dynamic he may be, is hamstrung by his party’s lack of a ruling majority and his more cautious coalition partners, the Socialists and New Party Harbinger. Already, Hashimoto has reportedly told Harbinger leader Masayoshi Takemura that he won’t push his desire to win a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council. And in a television interview Sunday, LDP official Taku Yamazaki said there would be “no big change” between a Murayama and Hashimoto administration.

And Ozawa, however brilliant his policy or cunning his tactics, is out of power--and, barring an electoral miracle, is likely to remain so. An Asahi Television poll Sunday showed 20% of those surveyed support Ozawa for prime minister, compared to 54.6% for Hashimoto.

“As far as I’m concerned, it’s the same old stalemate,” Johnson said. “It is totally premature to talk about any kind of stable government until we’ve had an election.”

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