Even the Settlers Accept the Inevitable : Israel: The hand-over of Arab towns to the Palestinians is no longer disputed; evacuation of settlements will follow.

JERUSALEM —  For the past few weeks, Israelis have been watching the hand-over of successive West Bank cities to the Palestinian Authority with almost as much detachment as they watch the latest television reports on Bosnia. The matter-of-fact reaction even from right wing Israelis is no less stunning than the smooth historical transition occurring on the West Bank itself.

For years, the prospect of an Israeli government giving up much of the biblical heartland to the Palestinians has been regarded as a formula for a mini-Armageddon, an upheaval that would pit Israeli against Israeli, not to mention Palestinian. Settler leaders said they would gun down any Palestinian policeman who interfered with them. Massive right-wing demonstrations within Israel in recent months blocked roads and threatened chaos while rhetoric reached fever pitch.

These passions were instantly chilled by the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. For the most part they have remained so. One often hears that the killing has not really changed anyone’s politics in Israel, but the restraint displayed by the right in the two months since the killing reflects an authentic concern about where the country was heading as well as embarrassment imposed by the killer’s right-wing identity. Even the extremist margin has been silent, not from remorse but from a realization of the temper of Israelis within the broader right wing, who regard the assassination of Rabin, their political foe, as a near-mortal blow against their own camp.

Many on the right, including settlers living on the West Bank, have reconciled themselves not only to withdrawal of the Israeli army from Palestinian towns and villages but also to eventual evacuation of some--perhaps most--of the 140 Israeli settlements as well. The fate of those settlements is to be decided in the final status talks that will begin this spring between Israel and the Palestinians. The extent of evacuation, not the principle, will be the primary focus of the internal political debate. Even left-wing Israelis advocate retaining some of the settlements for security reasons.

For Israel, the interim peace accords with the Palestinians had been a calculated letting go, a gamble aimed at giving the Palestinians a reason to live in peace by giving them something to lose. Palestinian reactions in the wake of the Israeli withdrawals lend credence to this approach. Instead of terror attacks from Palestinian-controlled towns, there have been appeals by mayors of several newly liberated Arab towns to the mayors of neighboring Israeli communities for cooperation. The Jewish mayors have responded in kind. Even settler leaders who have spoken of the Palestinians over the years only in terms of enmity now speak of the need to find ways for coexistence.

Yasser Arafat is increasingly viewed in Israel not as a garish, Levantine figure with a dagger up his sleeve but as a political boss who can deliver the goods, someone with a vested interest in making the peace process work. His position as head of the Palestinian Authority, uncertain at first because of the challenge of Islamic fundamentalists, has substantially consolidated in recent months. The Palestinian elections scheduled for Jan. 20 seem certain to strengthen him even more by giving him a clear popular mandate for the first time.

Thus, instead of anarchy, a new stability appears to be emerging. It is fragile, to be sure, and may yet give way, but every passing week adds firmness. The killing last week of Hamas’ master bomb maker known as the Engineer seems certain to trigger a violent response against an Israeli target. However, neither Israelis nor Palestinians believe that this would derail the peace process, since derailment is not in either side’s interest.

Grudges will flare up in the future. Once the Palestinians are well situated within their own borders, irredentist voices are certain to be heard demanding land within Israel proper or the elimination of Israel. The loyalties of Israel’s own Arab population will be tested by their affinity to their Palestinian brothers on the West Bank and Gaza. Jewish militants, in turn, may resort to provocations in an attempt to force Israel to reimpose its authority on the West Bank.

All these possibilities, however, would be occurring within a new reality in which both the Israeli and Palestinian mainstreams have a strong interest in maintaining the status quo, particularly if that means not only peace but prosperity as well.