COLLEGE BASKETBALL/ CHRIS DUFRESNE : For Some, This Is Definitely No Time to Stumble

Good morning fence-sitters, tournament wannabes, dreamers, schemers and would-be giant killers.

This is your NCAA tournament wake-up call. Every move you fake, every rim you break, every shot you make, they’ll be watching you.

Next Thursday, at 11 a.m. PST, the nine-member panel of the NCAA men’s basketball conference committee will do lunch in a Kansas City hotel, adjourn to a swanky suite and get down to the business of deciding 34 at-large bids for the upcoming NCAA tournament.

Three days and one Rick Majerus-sized room service bill later, the NCAA Nine will stagger down the stairs on Selection Sunday with seedings, brackets and apologies.

“All of our meals will be brought in,” Bob Frederick, the Kansas athletic director who chairs the basketball committee, explains of the process. “We’ll take some breaks, so people can exercise, and take study breaks. It’ll be a casual atmosphere, I wouldn’t say tense, but people will feel the significance of the task they’re completing at the time.”

Teams wishing to be considered for the 64-team field should be making their cases.

Now.

Kentucky, Kansas, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Villanova, Cincinnati, Purdue and the like, you are excluded from this discussion. Take a load off until pairings are announced.

The rest of you, heads up. Victory or defeat in the next two weeks can separate the men from the National Invitation Tournament.

As you sleep, Frederick and friends are poring over box scores and charting your indexes like Wall Street stock.

“I’m looking at teams that are definitely playing themselves into consideration, and at teams that are definitely playing themselves out of consideration,” Frederick says.

Duke’s victory over UCLA on Sunday?

Saw it.

George Washington’s upset of No. 1 UMass on Saturday?

Noted.

Auburn’s home loss to Kentucky? Sorry, Tigers, saw that one too.

Questions as decision day approaches:

--How important are Rating Percentage Index rankings in making the cut?

Well, the committee swears they are not the end-all, but they are used to help supplement decisions. The NCAA has used the independent RPI since 1981. It is derived from three factors: your team’s winning percentage (25%), schedule strength (50%) and your opponents’ schedule strength (25%).

Frederick says no team is ever selected over another solely because it has a higher RPI rating.

Finishing in the top 64 in the RPI is no NCAA guarantee because there are 30 automatic bids set aside for conference champions.

Note: Virginia Tech was 24th in the RPI last year and didn’t make the NCAA cut.

--Will having a sub-.500 conference record keep a team out?

It depends on what Atlantic conference you’re talking about. In the evenly matched Atlantic Coast, you might get in with a losing record. Not likely in the bottom-heavy Atlantic 10.

--How important are last impressions?

Important.

“We look at how a team does its last 10 games,” Frederick says.

How things are shaping up:

START PACKING

The locks: Kentucky, Mississippi State (Southeastern); Massachusetts, Virginia Tech (Atlantic 10); Wake Forest, North Carolina, Georgia Tech (Atlantic Coast); Connecticut, Villanova, Georgetown, Syracuse (Big East); Kansas, Iowa State (Big Eight); Purdue, Penn State, Iowa (Big Ten); UCLA, Stanford, Arizona (Pacific 10); Cincinnati, Louisville and Memphis (Conference USA); Wisconsin Green Bay (Midwestern); Utah (Western Athletic), and Texas Tech (Southwest).

CLOSING FAST

George Washington: The Colonials nullified a near-devastating Atlantic 10 loss to La Salle two weeks ago with a bid-sealing victory last Saturday over then-No. 1 UMass.

Duke: The Blue Devils started 0-4 in the ACC, but have recovered nicely, winning major brownie points with their thumping of defending national champion UCLA on national television. Their 77-75 last-second victory over Maryland on Wednesday was their fifth win in a row.

California: Two weekend victories kept hope alive in Berkeley. The bad news: The Golden Bears close against Stanford at home and the Arizonas on the road.

Providence: A team few have considered until lately, the Friars’ improved to 16-9 with Tuesday’s statement victory over No. 8 Georgetown. If any conference deserves six NCAA invitations this season, it’s the Big East.

Oklahoma: The Sooners, with a late charge, have 16 victories and a winning record in the Big Eight, but close the regular season against Kansas. Oklahoma needs to show something in the conference tournament.

Illinois: OK, it’s a stretch, but two good things happened Saturday: Illinois defeated No. 20 Iowa, and Lou Henson announced his retirement. Sentiment should never be a factor, but the selection committee is sprinkled with coaches-turned-athletic directors--Terry Holland, C.M. Newton--who may want to give Henson a going-away present.

New Mexico: The Lobos have been snubbed before with 20-plus victory seasons, but who could deny a Western Athletic Conference team that began the week at 22-4 and riding a five-game winning streak?

Davidson: The small college in North Carolina has produced 21 Rhodes scholars and is 22-3 this season, 13-0 in the Southern Conference.

Michigan: Tuesday’s victory over Michigan State might have put the Wolverines over the top with 18 victories.

NOT MAKING THINGS EASY

College of Charleston: The Cougars seemed a lock for an at-large bid before last week’s Trans America Athletic Conference loss to Southeastern Louisiana. Charleston’s two other losses were to UConn and Syracuse. The Cougars aren’t eligible for the automatic bid because they’re still serving probation after upgrading to Division I.

Eastern Michigan: The Eagles were media darlings only weeks ago, but a loss to Kent on Saturday left them at 19-5 and fighting to hold their lead in the Mid-American Conference.

Boston College: The Eagles were recently clobbered by West Virginia, Georgetown, and Villanova (without Kerry Kittles). This is not the kind of momentum the committee is talking about.

Missouri: The Tigers (16-12, 6-7) are fading down the Big Eight stretch and missed a great show-me opportunity in losing Monday to No. 3 Kansas.

Santa Clara: This had the makings of a storybook early after the Broncos bucked UCLA in Hawaii, but the feeling now is that Santa Clara needs to win the West Coast Conference tournament to qualify.

Washington State: The Cougars didn’t get the sweep they needed last week against Stanford and Cal. At 14-9, they need to close with victories over Arizona, Arizona State, USC and UCLA to warrant consideration.

Washington: It was a nice story early, until that loss to Oregon.

Arkansas: The Razorbacks will probably get in, but are squealing after Sunday’s defeat by Georgia and the losses of Sunday Adebayo and Jesse Pate to transcript questions.

Wisconsin: If the Badgers (15-11 before the week) don’t make it, they can look back on two losses to Northwestern.

Indiana: Yes, the ho-hum Hoosiers are probably going to sneak in, but don’t go bragging about it.

FENCE SITTERS

Want a definition of a bubble team? Look no further than Temple. Two weeks ago, the Owls were a wreck at 12-11. Since, they’ve won four in a row, including Saturday’s victory over No. 16 Virginia Tech.

The Owls have defeated Kansas, Villanova and Duke in nonconference play.

“Our power rating has always been there, in the neighborhood of 30 something (32 this week), Temple Coach John Chaney said. “We just have to win some more games, and let the committee do its job.”

With a final regular-season victory at St. Bonaventure tonight and a decent showing in the Atlantic 10 tournament, Temple should get a good, hard look.

Others on the bubble: Maryland, Clemson (ACC); Tulane, Marquette (Conference USA), Tulsa (Missouri Valley); Kansas State (Big Eight), Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina (Southeastern).

WHAT ABOUT TARK?

If Fresno State (18-8, 12-4) doesn’t make a strong showing in next week’s WAC tournament, this is going to be a tough one for NCAA tournament selectors.

How can you deny the Bulldogs, who swept No. 10 Utah in conference play?

Fresno State didn’t play much of a nonconference schedule, was blown out by Hawaii in conference play, and carries a borderline 62 power ranking into the week.

“I don’t think our power rating is near where it ought to be,” Tarkanian complains.

The Bulldogs close the regular season against Texas El Paso and New Mexico.

“I think we have to win both games or else do real well in the tournament,” Tarkanian says of his team’s NCAA chances. “We’re certainly what you’d call being on the bubble.”

LOOSE ENDS

--Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski, who announced he is not a candidate to succeed Henson at Illinois, is scheduled to arrive in Chicago O’Hare late tonight. But it isn’t what you think. “I will be flying to Chicago for a death in the family,” Krzyzewski said. “It has nothing to do with the Illinois situation. Krzyzewski, a Chicago native, says he is working on a new contract at Duke that will keep him in Durham for years.

--Santa Clara guard Steve Nash disputes theories his team (19-7, 10-4) has to win the West Coast Conference tournament to get an NCAA bid. “We have a few losses we shouldn’t have lost, but so has every team around the country,” Nash said. “I think we’re in.”