West’s Economy to Slow but Still Outpace Nation

DENVER —  The West’s supercharged economy will lose a bit of steam in the next few years but will still outpace the nation as it has most of the decade, a panel of economists predicted Thursday.

“This region will continue to outpace the national economy at least for this decade and maybe into the 21st century,” said Thayne Robson, director of the Bureau of Economic & Business Research at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City. “We are a low-cost region for growth.”

As they head into the next decade, the states will have to grapple with a number of growth-management issues, ranging from infrastructure and economic diversification to tax reform and the changing face of the population, the economists said.

The economists, representing 11 Western states, met for the daylong Western Economic Roundtable, sponsored by the Center for the New West, a Denver-based policy research institute.

Most of the economists predicted slightly slower growth for their states in the next two years, ranging from 2.5% to about 4%. Many cited a slowdown in the region’s booming construction industry and federal job cuts as factors.

Economists in California, Utah, Nevada and Washington forecast growth to continue at the same or a higher level, with Utah predicting the biggest increase, a 5.7% job growth rate.

U.S. employment increased 2.3% in 1995 and is forecast to increase 1.4% in 1996 and 1.3% in ‘97, according to Brian McDonald, director of the Bureau of Business & Economic Research at the University of New Mexico.

For much of the decade, the West’s economic growth has been driven by migration, urbanization, economic diversification and globalization, said Philip M. Burgess, president of the Center for the New West.

The region is seen as weaning itself from a reliance on natural resources, such as mining and timber, and is becoming a center for telecommunications, high technology and biotechnology, creating a “silicon mountain.”

Other growing sectors include the services industry and manufacturing, Burgess said. As states look ahead, they must deal with several issues, ranging from the environment to how best to manage economic development, he said.

Economists participating in the conference were from California, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.