Study Sees More Jobs, Traffic in O.C.’s Future

FULLERTON —  Freeways into and out of Orange County will stay crowded and its housing prices will remain among the highest in the nation as its job growth continues to outpace population for the next 25 years, according to a new study released Thursday.

The county, one of California’s wealthiest and most populous business centers, should add 873,400 new jobs but only about 600,000 new residents by the year 2020, Cal State Fullerton’s newly formed Center for Demographic Studies reported.

This means that there will be a demand for available housing that will increase its value. That’s good news for those who already live here or can pay huge premiums to buy in, but bad news for the young workers who will fill many of the new jobs but be unable to afford the mortgages.

In a county where local business executives for years cited traffic congestion as a major block to business growth and a good argument for moving away, the thought of more commuters is unsettling.

Transportation specialists say that projects to widen freeways and build additional traffic corridors have started to relieve some of the rush hour crush and should help keep commuters moving, albeit slowly, into the 21st century.

The study projected a total of 2,114,300 jobs in the county by the year 2020, a modest average growth rate of 2.25% a year. But that rate still would outstrip population and housing growth, estimated at less than 1% per year, said William Gayk, author of the forecast.

Gayk, formerly chief demographer for Orange County--said the county’s December 1994 bankruptcy has had little impact on the job and population figures. However, he expects that a soft general economy and continued downsizing by big corporations means the self-employed will continue to make up a significant part of the county’s total work force. He estimates that about 10% of all workers in Orange County are self-employed.

“That might even be a bit too cautious,” said Jack Kyser, chief economist for the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp. “The way things are moving, we see self-employment continuing to grow, because this is a region with a lot of highly educated people and a nice living environment.” The two combine, he said, to encourage people to eschew working for major corporations and to set up their own businesses.

The job growth pace spelled out in Gayk’s report Thursday is much the same as in the previous 25-year forecast he prepared in 1992 and updated last year as a county employee, he said.

The big difference is that employment growth in Orange County is shifting away from the geographic center as Irvine, long the crown jewel in the county’s economy, becomes more expensive and thus less attractive to new businesses, said Gayk.

He predicted that Irvine would have 190,552 jobs in 2020. That’s a 50.5% growth rate--well below the 70% rate predicted for the county as a whole.

But growth in other parts of the county will make up for the slack in the middle.

Redevelopment in areas of the old industrial and agricultural centers of Anaheim, Buena Park, Fullerton, Santa Ana and Cypress is expected to create a multitude of new jobs in the north and north-central parts of the county. Growth in South County will occur in developing and expanding communities such as Rancho Santa Margarita and San Clemente as well as in and around the soon-to-be-closed El Toro Marine Corps Air Station.

Development of the 4,700-acre base would not have an immediate impact but is expected to be a major factor in South County’s economy 15 to 20 years from now, Gayk said.

Most new jobs would be created in the areas of business, health care and financial services; health products; retail and wholesale trade, and high-technology manufacturing, said Gayk.

He said he is preparing a separate report that will project employment growth within specific industries.

While Thursday’s report looks much further into the future than have other projections, the demographic research center’s findings don’t differ significantly from the annual Orange County economic forecasts issued by researchers at Chapman University, Cal State Fullerton, UCLA and First Interstate Bank.

All of them to date have suggested that the county--indeed, the entire Southern California region--is looking at a sustained but fairly pedestrian growth pace over the next decade or so.

Chapman University’s Center for Economic Research, which issues a five-year employment growth projection, said in December that it expects the total number of jobs in the county to increase by 8.9% by the year 2000. That would add 103,100 jobs for a total of 1,267,300. But state employment officials have significantly underestimated job growth in recent years and Chapman next week will issue a mid-year update that should increase the projected pace of job creation, economist Esmael Adibi said.

That would keep Chapman in line with the new Cal State Fullerton report that predicts an 11% growth in new jobs by 2000 as employers add 138,000 new jobs for a total of 1,379,000.

“The average growth [in jobs] should hover around 2% for the foreseeable future,” Adibi said. “So a 2.25% average is a little optimistic, but not way out of line.”

The demographic report had been a product of the county administrative office but most of its functions were cut in budget slashing after the county’s December 1994 bankruptcy. The last official county report was issued in 1992 and updated last year.

Gayk, in fact, was one of the county employees whose job was threatened by budget cuts and who survived as the county struck a deal with Cal State Fullerton to shift the demographic unit and its chief from the county Environmental Management Agency to the university.

The $275,000 annual budget is being paid by the county, the Orange County division of the League of California Cities and the county’s sanitation districts and transportation corridor agencies.

The government entities are willing to pay the freight for the program because the numbers that Gayk churns out are adopted by public and private agencies throughout Southern California to help plan for future social and economic needs. Uses include transportation and air quality planning. The numbers also give agencies a basis for allocating funds received from state and federal grants for various programs.