GOP Hopes to Cut Into Democrats’ Majority

SACRAMENTO —  Having escaped the national Republican landslide in 1994, state Senate President Pro Tem Bill Lockyer is poised to maintain Democratic control of the Legislature’s upper house in the Nov. 5 elections.

The GOP, meanwhile, aims to at least weaken Lockyer’s leadership, and at best pull off an upset and gain control of the Senate.

With Democrats sensing a big year of their own, Lockyer, of Hayward, hopes to add one or two seats to his narrow majority so his party can withstand what is expected to be a much stronger challenge in 1998 from Republicans.

“This is the setup for ’98 . . . it’s a two-election game plan,” said a Republican campaign strategist.

From the Democratic side, campaign consultant Larry Sheingold expressed modest optimism. “We’re certainly not cocky but feel pretty good about our chances to stay even or even pick up a seat,” he said.

The current lineup in the 40-member house is 22 Democrats, 16 Republicans and two independents who often vote with Democrats.

Shortly after he was elevated as the Senate’s leader, Lockyer survived his first election test two years ago as Democrats narrowly maintained control of the Senate, while the Assembly fell into GOP hands for the first time in a quarter-century. Nationally, Republicans recaptured power in Congress and many statehouses in that election.

Now Republicans, led by Sen. Rob Hurtt of Garden Grove, are anxious to seize the Senate, where Lockyer and the Democrats have put the brakes on much of the conservative agenda of Republican Gov. Pete Wilson and the Assembly.

Earlier this year, Lockyer, the most powerful Democrat in the Legislature, got a head start on cementing his majority when Assemblyman Byron D. Sher (D-Stanford) won a special Senate election in the Silicon Valley. That seat had been held by Republicans since the mid-1980s.

While 20 seats are at stake Nov. 5, both parties are focused on five key races where seats will be vacant because incumbents are being forced into retirement by term limits. That is where the balance of power is likely to be won or lost.

Among these battlegrounds are traditional GOP strongholds in Glendale and Long Beach; Democratic seats along the Big Sur coast and the suburban East Bay in the Bay Area, and a San Diego district with an independent streak.

Additionally, two incumbent Democrats--Sher and Sen. Patrick Johnston of Stockton--have mounted aggressive campaigns to defend against what Lockyer calls “last-minute sneak attacks” by Republicans.

Heartened by President Clinton’s wide lead in polls over Republican Bob Dole in California, Democrats are hopeful that the president’s popularity will stretch down the ticket to their legislative candidates.

“I’d rather be in our position than theirs,” Lockyer said.

In contrast, Republicans hope California voters will maintain their tradition of ticket-splitting and return familiar faces to Sacramento.

Hurtt said Republicans intend to win at least two additional seats, bringing the GOP’s Senate total to 18. That would be three votes short of a majority, but would deliver a blow to Lockyer.

Some GOP sources have privately suggested that Hurtt might try to befriend disaffected Democrats as a way to topple Lockyer.

Earlier this year, Hurtt, a staunch conservative, showed he was willing to make an unorthodox move when he quietly funneled $40,000 to a Democrat seeking to oust a Lockyer ally in the Senate. The Hurtt-backed candidate lost.

“Republicans believe they are in a good position to pick up a seat or two,” said Ray McNally, a GOP consultant on four key Senate races.

“I don’t think anyone’s pretending the Republicans will pick up control of the Senate this time,” he said, adding that the GOP expects to be in a strong position to oust the Democrats in 1998, when term limits will retire Lockyer and 10 other senior senators.

But Democrats are still wary. One Democratic tactician said that while Republicans may call 1996 “an incremental year,” Democrats believe the GOP has an “unspoken agenda” to try to form a leadership coalition with disgruntled Democrats and oust Lockyer.

In the fight for control of the Senate, a GOP campaign strategist described as “ground zero” the contest for the central coastal seat of retiring Sen. Henry J. Mello (D-Watsonville).

That race pits former Assemblyman Rusty Areias, now a coastal commissioner appointed by Lockyer, against Republican Bruce McPherson, a low-profile, two-term assemblyman from Santa Cruz.

Republicans acknowledge that this Democratic-leaning district will not be an easy win for McPherson. But McNally characterized Areias as having “more baggage than Atlas Van and Storage.”

Democrats hope to shatter McPherson’s image as a moderate, citing anti-environment votes in which he sided with the most conservative elements of the Assembly GOP caucus.

But McNally said McPherson and two other GOP assemblymen, Phil Hawkins of Bellflower and Richard K. Rainey of Walnut Creek, who are trying to step up to the Senate in closely watched races, can cite a number of achievements, including the approval of this year’s state budget, which provided funds to cut class sizes.

“For the first time in a long time, people have a lot to crow about when they are out on the campaign trail. That obviously helps people like Rainey, Hawkins and McPherson,” said McNally, a consultant to all three.

One-term Assemblyman Hawkins is making a bid to replace longtime Sen. Robert G. Beverly (R-Long Beach). He is running against former Assemblywoman Betty Karnette, who was narrowly defeated in 1994 when her opponent received a last-minute contribution of $125,000 from the tobacco industry.

Karnette is seeking to paint Hawkins as an ultraconservative and the Hawkins campaign is trying to portray her as an ultraliberal.

The other major Senate race in Los Angeles County features Assemblywoman Paula L. Boland (R-Granada Hills), who is trying to replace Sen. Newton R. Russell (R-Glendale). She is opposed by Democrat Adam Schiff, a former federal prosecutor, in a traditionally strong GOP district where demographic changes in the past few years have bolstered Democratic expectations.

In San Diego, Assemblywoman Dede Alpert (D-Coronado) is running against Republican businessman Joe Dolphin to replace retiring Sen. Lucy Killea, an independent.

Democrats estimate they will spend $1.5 million to secure the seat against Dolphin, who has loaned himself $300,000.

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Races to Watch

A look at some of the key races likely to be crucial for control of the state Senate:

* San Joaquin Valley: Stockton, Lodi (District 5)--Sen. Patrick Johnston (D-Stockton) versus Republican challenger Kurt Boese, a Lodi marketing consultant. A longshot for the GOP.

* East Bay: parts of Alameda and Contra Costa counties (District 7)--Assemblyman Richard Rainey (R-Walnut Creek) is a former county sheriff who is facing Democrat Jeff Smith, a physician and county supervisor. Rainey is thought to be the slight favorite even though this changing district has been Democratic turf.

* Silicon Valley: Palo Alto, San Mateo County (District 11)--Sen. Byron Sher (D-Stanford) beat GOP candidate Patrick Shannon, an aide to Gov. Pete Wilson, in an expensive special election last March. It’s Sher versus Shannon, the rematch, Nov. 5. Considered a longshot for the GOP.

* Central Coast: Monterey, Santa Cruz, Gilroy (District 15)--Assemblyman Bruce McPherson (R-Santa Cruz) and former Assemblyman Rusty Areias (D-Los Banos) face off in what analysts call a “ground zero” brawl in a district that leans Democratic.

* San Gabriel and San Fernando valleys: Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena (District 21)--Assemblywoman Paula Boland (R-Granada Hills) versus Democrat Adam Schiff of Burbank, a former federal prosecutor who ran unsuccessfully for the Assembly. Republicans believe they have the edge.

* Los Angeles County: Palos Verdes Peninsula, San Pedro (District 27)--Assemblyman Phil Hawkins (R-Bellflower) faces former Assemblywoman Betty Karnette (D-Long Beach). Democrats view this race as a tossup. Republicans predict victory.

* San Diego, La Jolla (District 39)--Assemblywoman Dede Alpert (D-Coronado) versus Republican Joe Dolphin, a businessman. Democrats believe independents will give the edge to Alpert. The GOP is banking on a boost from Gov. Pete Wilson to put Dolphin over the top.