Major Parties Losing Grip on O.C. Voters

In this most Republican of counties, Vietnamese Americans used to be considered the most Republican of voters.

Not anymore.

In just four years, Republican registration among Vietnamese Americans in Orange County has dropped from overwhelming majority to dwindling plurality, according to an analysis conducted for The Times.

Mirroring a countywide trend, more and more voters of Vietnamese descent are choosing minor parties or independent political status.

Experts and Vietnamese themselves credit the trend to the declining relevance of anti-Communism and to the growing influence of younger voters.

“I’m going to vote for Clinton,” said Joanna Bui, a 25-year-old college student and registered Democrat who lives in Fountain Valley. “I think he will help students more. My parents are both Republicans. They both suffered under communism. I was too young to remember that.”

Four years ago, nearly six of every 10 Vietnamese Americans in Orange County were registered Republicans. Today, less than half of the 54,000 registered voters of Vietnamese descent are signed on with the GOP.

The most recent trend is even more dramatic. Among the 18,000 Vietnamese who registered or re-registered to vote in the past year, just over 39% declared their allegiance to the Republican Party. About 31% declared themselves Democrats and 29% opted for a smaller party or independent status.

The analysis of registration trends among Vietnamese voters was done for The Times by Dick Lewis, a local voting analyst, who used Vietnamese surnames to identify voters of Vietnamese descent.

Identifying surnames is a standard technique used by experts to identify trends among Asian and Latino voters. The method does not account for wives who take their husband’s name after marriage, nor does it identify individuals with extremely uncommon surnames.

“Surnames are the best indicator,” said Annette Avina, chief of staff of the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project in San Antonio, which analyzes voting trends among Latinos nationwide.

Dinh Le, president of the Phoenix Democratic Club--a Vietnamese American group in Garden Grove--says the GOP’s immigration policies have alienated some voters of Vietnamese descent. Under policies pushed by the GOP, many legal immigrants would be denied benefits like Medicaid and welfare.

“People are seeing that anti-Communism is not the issue any longer,” Le said. “The issues that are important to them are closer to home, like immigrant-bashing, welfare and the economy.”

Le said his group recently added 1,000 Vietnamese Americans to Democratic voter rolls, he said.

“People used to register Republican without even thinking about it,” Le said. “They came here as refugees and believed the Republicans were more anti-Communist. That is changing.”

The trend away from the GOP is being led by a surge of younger voters.

The number of registered voters of Vietnamese descent increased by 50%--or 18,741--since 1992. Of those, the largest single group are age 18 through 24, the Times analysis showed.

That group is almost evenly divided among Republicans, Democrats and those registering independent or with third parties. Thirty-six percent registered Republican, 33% Democratic and 31% independent or with a third party.

Among Vietnamese who registered or re-registered during this presidential election year, when voter interest traditionally perks up, one group of voters actually favored the Democrats more than the Republicans: voters over the age of 60, who are nearing retirement age and may have been influenced by the partisan debate over the future of Medicare. Nearly 38% of those voters registered Democratic, while 32% registered Republican.

Le and others say the GOP’s anti-immigrant message may be sinking in.

Tony Lam, a Republican city councilman from Westminster, said he has noticed a trend among some Vietnamese, especially the younger ones, to stray from the GOP.

“Young people have a tendency to listen to a lot of liberal ideas,” he said. “They don’t look at the anti-Communist aspect of issues. They think about lifestyles.”

Lam said he thought older Vietnamese would remain firm in their support of the Republicans.

“Republicans are strongly anti-Communist, and President [Gerald R.] Ford [a Republican] allowed us to come to the U.S. as refugees,” Lam said. “This is the kind of thing we never forget.”

Florence Diep, who runs the GOP’s office in Little Saigon, says anti-communism still exerts a deep pull for many voters. She said the party’s emphasis on traditional family values also appeals to those of Vietnamese descent.

“A lot of older people dream of returning to their homeland,” she said. “We also value the family.”

Diep, who is 28, acknowledged that the GOP is a tougher sell among first-generation Vietnamese Americans.

“A lot of young people are switching,” she said. “My younger sisters say they are going to vote for Clinton, and I am trying to talk them out of it.”

Like many voters in the county overall, more and more Vietnamese are deciding they don’t like either party.

“I’m not completely Republican, and I’m not completely Democratic,” said Mai Bloom Hoang, a 21-year-old student at Irvine Valley College and a registered independent. “I think it is up the parties to convince me.”

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Changing Party

Vietnamese in Orange County have increased their registration by 54% since 1992. The proportion spurning the Republican and Democratic parties increased from one in five to one in four:

1992

Total registered: 34,845

Republican: 57%

Democratic: 23%

Other: 20%

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1996

Total registered: 53,586

Republican: 49%

Democratic: 26%

Other: 25%

Source: Orange County registrar of voters

Researched by DICK LEWIS / For The Times

New Choices

About three in 10 new Vietnamese voters chose an alternative label, with those in the older age groups somewhat more likely to eschew Democratic or Republican affiliation. How 1996 Vietnamese registration breaks overall and by age:

Republican: 40%

Democrat: 31%

Other: 29%

*--*

Age Republican Democrat Other 18-29 39% 32% 29% 30-39 48 27 25 40-49 40 30 30 50-59 37 32 31 60 and older 32 38 30

*--*

Source: Orange County registrar of voters; Researched by DICK LEWIS / For The Times