Title Talk : It’s Non-Playoff Business as Usual, With Things Getting Iffy at the End

Sorting out college football’s national title picture isn’t so complicated, really, although a degree from MIT surely wouldn’t hurt.

The Sugar Bowl, which sounded car horns in celebration of Michigan’s upset of Ohio State, would now prefer that No. 2 Florida State upset No. 1 Florida on Saturday.

No. 3 Arizona State will be rooting for Florida this weekend, then against the Gators the next.

No. 4 Nebraska needs to beat No. 5 Colorado on Friday, just

as No. 5 Colorado needs to defeat No. 4 Nebraska.

No. 6 Ohio State--yes Ohio State--needs all of the above to lose.

No. 7 Brigham Young is locked out of the national title party, but would desperately like USC to snap out of its funk and upset Notre Dame to have a chance of making a college football alliance bowl.

So there. Who says there needs to be a playoff system?

Figuring out all scenarios would be as difficult as finding a Southeastern Conference coach with kind words to say about Florida Coach Steve Spurrier, whose Gators play the lead role in this season’s plot.

But, here goes:

For the second time in three years, the Rose Bowl’s staunch independence will keep the alliance from matching the top two teams for the national championship.

Two years ago, Penn State was the monkey wrench. This year, it’s Arizona State, which will start the Rose Bowl game ranked no worse than second in the polls.

The Rose Bowl will join the alliance in 1998, but that doesn’t help now.

With the top two picks in this year’s rotation, the Sugar Bowl is now fretting over whether it can even land the nation’s top-ranked team for its Jan. 2 game in New Orleans.

“We should clearly have a No. 1 team in both polls if everything works out,” Sugar Bowl executive director Paul Hoolahan said Monday.

That’s a big “if.”

Hoolahan will rest easy if Florida State beats Florida on Saturday, because the Seminoles then will be 11-0 and ranked No. 1 with no regular season games remaining.

“That would be the secure situation,” Hoolahan said.

Not so secure would be a Florida victory, because the Gators still would have to beat No. 15 Alabama in the Southeastern Conference title game Dec. 7 to go to the Sugar Bowl as No. 1.

Should Florida beat Florida State, and lose to Alabama, guess which team goes to the Rose Bowl as the nation’s top-ranked team?

Arizona State.

“I like that,” Pacific 10 Commissioner Tom Hansen said.

Hansen said that having the Sun Devils ranked No. 1 for the last three weeks in December would be a tremendous publicity coup for the Rose Bowl.

“Obviously, they would be sitting there for the whole month of December with all the excitement revolving around the No. 1 team,” Hansen said.

Here’s a look at how the last month is shaping up.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

Six teams have a shot winning the title. Here’s how:

--No. 1 Florida (10-0): The Gators--and this won’t be easy--need to win their last three games, against Florida State, Alabama and their Sugar Bowl opponent.

--No. 2 Florida State (10-0): If the Seminoles beat the Gators, then beat Nebraska or Colorado in the Sugar Bowl, the title goes to Tallahassee.

--No. 3 Arizona State (11-0): Two scenarios: The Sun Devils can start the Rose Bowl as No. 1 and defend their ranking by defeating Ohio State, or start as No. 2 and beat Ohio State while either Nebraska or Colorado defeats Florida or Florida State in the Sugar Bowl.

--No. 4 Nebraska: The Cornhuskers, counted out after their early-season loss to Arizona State, can win a third consecutive title by defeating Colorado, winning the Big 12 title game and beating Florida or Florida State in the Sugar Bowl while Ohio State defeats Arizona State in the Rose Bowl.

--No. 5. Colorado: It’s the same scenario, except with the Buffaloes beating the Cornhuskers on Friday.

--No. 6 Ohio State: The Michigan loss was a killer, but what happens if Ohio State beats Arizona State, and Florida, Florida State, Nebraska and Colorado all lose?

Just what Buckeye fans need right now, a glimmer of hope.

ALLIANCE

--Sugar Bowl: The likely scenario has the winner of Saturday’s Florida-Florida State game meeting the Big 12 conference champion, probably Nebraska or Colorado. If Florida beats Florida State but loses to Alabama, the Sugar Bowl cannot have the No. 1 team.

--Fiesta Bowl: Last year’s title game hosts get the third and fifth selections. Organizers have been courting the Big Ten all season, with ideas of taking the conference’s No. 2 team. But if Notre Dame beats USC on Saturday, the Fiesta Bowl will almost surely take the Irish with the third pick. Assuming the Orange Bowl will snatch at-large Penn State with the fourth selection--denying the Fiesta a Lou Holtz-Joe Paterno ratings whopper--the Fiesta takes the Florida-Florida State loser with the fifth pick.

--Orange Bowl: It has to take the wait-and-see approach with the fourth and sixth picks, but the guess is the Orange will be left with Penn State and the Big East champion--Miami, Syracuse or Virginia Tech.

--At-large berths: The alliance announced Monday that the four finalists competing for two at-large selections are Notre Dame, Penn State, Brigham Young and Tennessee. So much for that co-Big Ten championship, Northwestern.

Penn State appears a lock for one of the spots. If Notre Dame beats USC, it will get the other, leaving current No. 7 BYU to fume and fuss, given that it is currently ranked ahead of No. 10 Notre Dame.

THE RACES

In the Big 12, the North division title will be settled Friday when Colorado plays Nebraska in Lincoln. The winner will advance to the title game Dec. 7 in St. Louis against Texas or Texas Tech. The Longhorns can clinch the South Division title with a victory over Texas A&M; on Friday. If Texas loses, there will be a three-way tie among Texas, Texas Tech and Texas A&M; at 5-3. In that scenario, Texas Tech wins the tiebreaker and the division.

Syracuse will clinch the Big East and an alliance bowl bid if it defeats Miami on Saturday. If Miami wins, there will be a three-way tie among Miami, Syracuse and Virginia Tech.

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The Bowl Picture

BOWL GAME: LAS VEGAS

Las Vegas, Dec. 19, 6 p.m. (ESPN)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Nevada (8-3) vs. Ball State (8-3)

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BOWL GAME: ALOHA

Honolulu, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 12:30 p.m. (ABC)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: California (6-5) vs. Texas Tech (7-4) or Texas A&M; (6-5)

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BOWL GAME: LIBERTY

Memphis, Tenn., Dec. 27, noon (ESPN)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Houston (7-4) vs. West Virginia (8-3)

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BOWL GAME: CARQUEST

Miami, Dec. 27, 3:30 p.m. (TBS)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Miami (7-3), Syracuse (8-2) or Virginia Tech (9-1) vs. Virginia (7-3)

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BOWL GAME: COPPER

Tucson, Dec. 27, 6 p.m. (ESPN)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Wyoming (10-1) or BYU (12-1) vs. Texas Tech (7-4) or Texas A&M; (6-5)

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BOWL GAME: PEACH

Atlanta, Dec. 28, 5 p.m. (ESPN)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: LSU (8-2) vs. Clemson (7-4)

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BOWL GAME: ALAMO

San Antonio, Dec. 29, 5 p.m. (ESPN)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Michigan (8-3) vs. Texas (6-4)

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BOWL GAME: HOLIDAY

San Diego, Dec. 30, 5 p.m. (ESPN)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Colorado (9-1) vs. Washington (9-2)

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BOWL GAME: SUN

El Paso, Dec. 31, 10 a.m. (CBS)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Stanford (6-5) vs. Michigan State (6-5)

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BOWL GAME: INDEPENDENCE

Shreveport, La., Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m. (ESPN)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Auburn (7-4) vs. Army (9-1)

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BOWL GAME: ORANGE

Miami, Dec. 31, 3 p.m. (CBS)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Syracuse (8-2) or Miami (7-3) vs. Notre Dame (8-2) or Penn State (10-2)

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BOWL GAME: OUTBACK

Tampa, Fla., Jan. 1, 8 a.m. (ESPN)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Alabama (9-2) or Tennessee (8-2) vs. Iowa (8-3)

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BOWL GAME: GATOR

Jacksonville, Fla., Jan. 1, 9:30 a.m. (NBC)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Virginia Tech (8-3), Syracuse (8-2) or Miami (7-3) vs. North Carolina (9-2)

*

BOWL GAME: COTTON

Dallas, Jan. 1, 9:30 a.m. (CBS)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: BYU (12-1) or Washington (9-2) vs. Kansas State (9-2)

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BOWL GAME: CITRUS

Orlando, Fla., Jan. 1, 10 a.m. (ABC)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Northwestern (9-2) vs. Alabama (9-2) or Tennessee (8-2)

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BOWL GAME: ROSE

Pasadena, Jan. 1, 1:30 p.m. (ABC)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Ohio State (10-1) vs. Arizona State (11-0)

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BOWL GAME: FIESTA

Tempe, Ariz., Jan. 1, 5 p.m. (CBS)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Florida State (10-0) or Florida (10-0) vs. Penn State (10-2) or Notre Dame (8-2)

*

BOWL GAME: SUGAR

New Orleans, Jan. 2, 5 p.m. (ABC)

PROBABLE OPPONENTS: Florida State (10-0) or Florida (10-0) vs. Nebraska (9-1)