Can GOP Suffer Same Fate as Tories?

SACRAMENTO — If you’re Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren, you must have winced a mite on hearing of the Conservatives’ rout in Britain. Those Tories had been in power 18 years. Similarly in California, 1998 will mark the 16th year of Republican power in the governor’s office. And Lungren will be asking voters to make it 20 by electing him.

Intellectually, of course, you can tell yourself there is no similarity, no relevance at all. It’s a long reach to link Britain and California politically. They’re about as similar as an English muffin and sourdough bread.

But Lungren and every politician know there is a relevant, common thread that runs through all democracies. And that is the uppity nature of voters. Every once in awhile, they just like to remind the high and the mighty who’s boss by booting out one party and handing the keys to another crowd. Give somebody else a turn--particularly at the top job.

California’s history is mixed. Voters went 44 years until 1938 without electing a Democratic governor. He served four years, then Republicans held power for another 16 until toppled by a Democratic landslide. After that, the parties alternated--eight years Democrat (Pat Brown), eight Republican (Ronald Reagan), eight Democrat (Jerry Brown). But since 1982, we’ve had only Republicans--George Deukmejian and Pete Wilson.

Lungren doesn’t want to hear it. He knows what he’ll be hearing all next year from Democrats--”time for a change,” “the state’s stagnant.”

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“I’m not going to fall into the trap of responding to them,” Lungren told me. “I’m going to play an offensive game, not a defensive game. I’m going to show the voters my program, my vision.

“I mean, I’m Dan Lungren. I’m not Pete Wilson. I’m not George Deukmejian. I’m not Ronald Reagan. I’m Dan Lungren.”

He’s also a Republican, with the same problem as the ousted Conservative Prime Minister John Major: His party has been in power a very long time.

“You overstay your welcome,” notes political consultant Bill Carrick, chief strategist for a potential Democratic rival, Sen. Dianne Feinstein. “Voters just say, ‘This is too long, let’s go.’ ”

There is, however, one notable difference between Major and Lungren: Major was an incumbent; Lungren is not, so he cannot personally have overstayed his welcome.

There is another difference, as well: Neither Lungren nor the Wilson administration are burdened with corruption or sex scandals, as were Conservative members of Parliament.

And there’s this factor: The Labor Party’s victorious Tony Blair has Clintonesque charm and TV appeal. You cannot say that about any of the potential Democratic gubernatorial candidates.

But there is a Clintonesque similarity between Blair and at least two of the Democrats--Feinstein and Lt. Gov. Gray Davis, the only announced candidate. They are more centrist than most of their party’s liberal politicians; therefore their ideologies are more acceptable to the electorate.

Lungren, by contrast, is an unabashed conservative. This largely is why he is unopposed for the GOP nomination. But in the general election the conservative label will be harder to sell.

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The conservatives’ ouster in Britain was a reminder of Republican vulnerability in California--less because of philosophy than the pendulum.

The Democratic message: After 16 years of GOP governors, the gloss is off The Golden State. We need to reinvest--in education, water, transportation. Schools are a disgrace. Classrooms still are jam-packed, regardless of recent class-size reductions in grades K-3. At universities, tuitions have more than doubled under Wilson.

Lungren will note that on his watch as attorney general, California’s crime rate has been dropping faster than the rest of America’s. He’ll also point out that the state’s economic growth is leading the nation’s. Of course, England’s economy has been perking right along, too, and voters still threw out the ruling party.

Lungren will be hit--unfairly in his case--for “wedge issue” politics. “People want leaders who can bridge differences, not just exploit them,” Davis says, asserting that the GOP nominee will have to defend Wilson’s “divisive policies.”

Not quite. As veteran GOP strategist Ken Khachigian says: “The key for Dan is to articulate a set of Republican principles sufficiently different from Pete’s so folks realize they’re not getting a cookie cutter administration. He needs to create a little distinction without creating a wide chasm. It’s a fine line to walk.”

Lungren cannot ignore the natural rhythm of the political pendulum. It swings all over the globe. In California, people do buy sourdough English muffins.