Allies Seen as Eroding Sanctions Against Iraq

WASHINGTON — In defiance of U.S. policy and pressure, a growing number of America’s partners in the coalition against Iraq are sending diplomats back to Baghdad, striking commercial deals and increasing direct contacts with President Saddam Hussein’s regime, according to U.S. analysts and Iraqi opposition officials.

The accumulated effect amounts to the most serious erosion of economic and diplomatic sanctions since a U.S.-led international campaign was launched to isolate Iraq after its 1990 invasion of Kuwait, the sources contended.

The moves to restore and improve ties with Baghdad by European and Arab allies of the United States have accelerated to an unprecedented pace in recent months and come as Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has toughened Washington’s stance against Hussein’s regime.

“There’s no doubt about the growing sanctions erosion . . . and it’s going to get worse,” said Phebe Marr, an Iraq expert at the National Defense University in Washington. “We’re going to need to do a better job of public diplomacy to hold the line.”

To many analysts, the current trend’s long-term danger is that it signals a shift in the framework of debate over Iraq’s future.

Immediately after the Persian Gulf War in 1991, attention was focused on when Hussein would be ousted. As he disproved predictions of an early demise, the issue became how long he would struggle to hold on.

But now, as efforts to undo him have collapsed, talk has begun about how and when Hussein might be re-integrated into the Middle East, the oil-trading community and eventually even the outside world. And an increasing number of coalition partners appears to be basing its actions on that premise.

Resolutions adopted by the United Nations during the Persian Gulf crisis called for a blanket ban on trade with Iraq. With only minor exceptions--such as the recently extended “oil for food” deal that allows Iraq to sell $2 billion worth of oil to buy food and medicine--the prohibition remains in effect.

Many coalition members also broke off diplomatic relations with Baghdad, and Washington has pushed for that arms-length approach to continue as long as Hussein remains in power.

Recently, however, Spain, Italy and Greece--all coalition members--reopened embassies in Iraq. A Spanish diplomat explained his nation’s attitude in blunt terms: “Spain wants to strengthen its relations with Iraq in political, economic and cultural spheres in the interests of the two countries.”

France--which had one of the largest military contingents in the Gulf War--has staffed an “interest section” in Baghdad for the first time since the conflict.

In January, a former senior French military officer headed a delegation of business executives from about 50 companies that staged a three-day gathering in Iraq in an attempt to secure business contracts.

Russia, whose decision to join the coalition was a U.S. diplomatic coup, in March signed a deal worth as much as $10 billion to explore Iraq’s oil fields. After visiting Baghdad, Russia’s energy minister pledged that the pact would be implemented despite the economic sanctions against Iraq. The Russian foreign minister subsequently said the deal will not go into effect until sanctions are lifted, but U.S. experts said that planning for implementation continues.

Since spring, at least three Persian Gulf sheikdoms--Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain--have dispatched envoys to Baghdad for talks with the leadership and to visit Uday Hussein, Saddam Hussein’s son and heir apparent, to wish him well after an assassination attempt in December left him seriously injured. During the Gulf War, protection of those same sheikdoms were part of the reason that more than 500,000 allied troops were sent to the region.

Syria, a long-standing rival of Iraq, this week announced that it would open its border with that country at three crossings for the first time in decades. Both countries are worried about Turkey’s military incursions into northern Iraq to track down Kurdish rebels.

The decision by Damascus, a leading Arab coalition member, is a major concern, U.S. officials said.

Actions by Jordan may be the biggest disappointment to Washington, given that King Hussein--after verbally defending Hussein during the Gulf War--two years ago dramatically denounced Iraq. But Jordan has begun to heal that rift, first by changing prime ministers in a move widely interpreted as deference to an Iraqi request. This spring, Jordan also tried to close down a U.S.-funded radio station in its country run by Iraqi dissidents and has distanced itself from exiled opposition groups.

Iran, which fought an eight-year war with Iraq, is now allowing Baghdad to ship about 10,000 barrels of oil daily through its territorial waters, effectively protecting it from the U.S.-led interdiction force in the Persian Gulf, senior U.S. officials said. The oil then goes to the two United Arab Emirates ports--Dubai and Sharjah--for illegal export sales, U.S. sources said. The UAE was a pivotal coalition member during the war, while Iran claimed neutrality but took steps that aided the coalition in 1990-91.

Viewing the overall picture, U.S. officials try to stress what they view as the positive. “Any contract negotiated with Saddam is not going to be worth the paper it was written on with his successor,” said Bruce O. Riedel, senior National Security Council director for Near East and South Asian Affairs. “It could blow up in their faces.”

Added another senior U.S. official: “There are bits and pieces but they do not suggest a pattern or that sanctions are crumbling.”

But many analysts believe that the U.S.-led effort to keep Iraq cut off is being undermined.

“These things are not blatant, in-your-face actions,” said Judith S. Yaphe, senior fellow at National Defense University. “Each country sees it as being in its own self-interest. But it does send a message to the United States that is very worrying. It’s not one major crack but a lot of little fissures that break the whole dish. It’s death by a thousand knives.”

Iraqi opposition leaders charge that the U.S. shares some of the blame for erosion of the sanctions.

Ahmed Chalabi, head of the Iraqi National Congress, said many countries “believe the United States is no longer determined to do anything to remove Saddam. Since he appears to be here to stay, they want to be on good terms with him and join the bandwagon to rehabilitate him.”