12% School Enrollment Increase Seen

By AMY PYLE

Oct. 31, 1997 12 AM PT

TIMES EDUCATION WRITER

Schools that already feel cramped had better brace for more.

Annual countywide enrollment projections released Thursday predict 12% growth by the year 2005--to 1.7 million students--the equivalent of 20,000 additional students annually.

Because birth rates have reached a record high of about 200,000 babies annually in Los Angeles County, even the slowing of immigration into the region in recent years has not reversed the burgeoning numbers of students showing up at school doors.

The future is expected to reflect the past, only more so, with the highest growth rate among Asian students and the greatest numerical growth among Latinos, along with a gradual increase in numbers of African American students after more than a decade of decreases.

The proportion of white students attending public schools in Los Angeles County dropped rapidly from a two-thirds majority in 1970 to barely a fifth today. That trend, too, is expected to continue.

Public school enrollment “seemed to be leveling off around 1993-94, but the last few years it’s begun peaking again,” said demographer Jim Parker, who drew on local, state and national databases to prepare the report for the county Office of Education.

Parker said the spurt ahead should not surprise school administrators, who are keenly aware of the consequences of overflowing first-grade classrooms. He said the county’s 81 public school systems from Bassett to Santa Monica should use these data to lobby voters.

“They need to get across to the public the need for more schools and the need for more [school construction] bond measures to pass,” he said.

Seven school districts in the county are trying to do just that next week, hoping to hitch a ride on the coattails of the Los Angeles Unified School District, which last spring scored approval of a $2.4-billion bond issue, the nation’s largest such ever.

The annual report also touches briefly on the vast disparities among the county’s districts--influenced by factors of both size and poverty--in a rundown of the percentage of high school students taking advanced college preparatory courses.

A high school student in the San Marino Unified School District was four times as likely to be enrolled in Algebra II as one in the Antelope Valley Union High School District, for instance, and twice as likely as peers in Los Angeles Unified.

While at least one in six students was learning physics in the South Pasadena, La Canada and San Marino districts, only one in 100 was taking the subject in Compton Unified and just two in 100 in the Antelope Valley district.

The figures were not news to Antelope Valley Deputy Supt. Raymond Monti, who said students there tend to choose less demanding courses that also qualify them for graduation. He said the situation reflects another trend: His district sends a lower percentage of students to the University of California and California State University systems than the state average.

Still, Monti questioned the accuracy of the county’s report, wondering whether it accounted for students enrolled in other advanced classes such as anatomy, physiology and geo-science--which it does not.

“We continue to stress to students to extend themselves as far as they can,” he said.

The report says the race for more schools is accompanied by an uphill race for more teachers. Last year, teacher shortages persisted across the county in all but the most sought-after middle-class districts.

At the secondary level, the greatest shortfalls were in science, foreign languages and mathematics. Half of the hires made last year were for bilingual and special education classes, yet demand far exceeded supply in those areas as well.

As a result, Los Angeles County had among the nation’s highest proportions of teachers--about one in 10--who lacked a standard state credential, which in California requires a specialized extra year of college education.

Although private schools have long offered some relief from the swelling numbers of students in public education, Parker’s report indicates that increases in private school enrollment did not begin to keep pace with the overall climb in numbers of school-age children.

The number of students at private schools in the county grew 5% between 1981 and 1995, compared to 18% at public schools.

By far the county’s largest reliance on private education occurred within the La Canada Unified School District boundaries--where 39% of all school-age children attended private institutions last year. That distinction is unusual, because La Canada Flintridge’s public school system is considered one of the best in the region.

Two San Gabriel Valley neighbors that are more educationally troubled, Pasadena and San Gabriel, landed second and third respectively for percentages of private school enrollment countywide.

At the same time, those left behind in public schools are bringing with them more and more educational challenges. They are increasingly poor and non-English-speaking: The percentage of children in the county’s public schools who are living below the poverty level doubled in the past six years, to a third, and in 25 of the 81 districts English was not the first language of more than half the pupils.

The numbers of public school students with disabilities grew 23% between 1988 and 1996 in the county, with the largest increase among children who have serious emotional disturbances.

Against all those odds, demographer Parker noted that the county is doing well in preparing students for college.

Last year, it exceeded state averages by having enrolled 40% of its graduates in the basic courses required for admission to the UC and CSU systems.

Over six years, scores remained stable on the Scholastic Assessment Test--one measuring stick for college admission--and more county juniors and seniors passed Advanced Placement examinations than the state and national averages. Dropout rates also steadily declined, which, while clearly an important improvement, also increased the crowding at high schools.

Parker, a sociologist by training, took his own stab at how to fix the public schools, the obsession of many an educator and politician in California these days. Among his suggestions:

* Increase funding, because California ranks 41st in the nation in spending per student, according to the state Department of Education.

* Improve school facilities, because in a 1996 federal survey nearly half the state’s campuses reported at least one inadequate building.

* Reduce class size, because California has the highest student-teacher ratio in the country.

Times staff writer Duke Helfand contributed to this story.

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Physics Enrollment

Thursday’s report includes information on student enrollment in advanced college preparatory math and science classes in the county’s 81 school districts. Physics, one of the hardest classes at most schools, predictably has the lowest enrollment. The proportion of students enrolled in physics varies greatly from district to district.

Districts With Highest Physics Enrollment

% of students

San Marino Unified: 18.4

La Canada Unified: 17.0

South Pasadena Unified: 16.0

10 Largest Districts

% of students

Los Angeles Unified: 2.5

Long Beach Unified: 1.4

Montebello Unified: 1.5

Pomona Unified: 2.1

Glendale Unified: 3.3