July Home Sales ‘Frenzy’ Sets a High for Decade

County home sales hit their highest mark in nearly a decade last month, signaling a continuing bull market that is sweeping the nation and boosting prices across the board.

Fueled by low interest rates and a growing economy, buyers purchased 1,662 homes in July, a 51% increase over last year, according to a report released Wednesday by La Jolla-based research firm Acxiom/DataQuick Information Systems.

Median home prices rose to $224,000, a 2% increase over the previous month and a nearly 11% increase over last year. That level is the highest since March 1990.

“A frenzy is a nice way to describe it,” said Mary Riddel, a senior economist with the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast project. “I can’t see it staying like that for another year. That’s not sustainable.”

Riddel, a housing market specialist, said she expects the market to cool by the end of the year, especially if interest rates rise.

The market could indeed slow in the next few months as school opens, according to Chris Lev, president of the Simi Valley/Moorpark Assn. of Realtors. But it is more likely, Lev said, the boom will continue well into next year.

“I think all the signs are there that it’s going to continue,” Lev said. “A lot of people have been waiting to buy a house for a long time.”

But some question whether the market’s rapid growth is a good thing.

“Prices are moving up quite rapidly, almost to the point where I think it’s unhealthy,” said Camarillo real estate broker Julie Hiraishi. “It’s almost like a frenzy.”

While she acknowledged the market is far different than the one that busted in the early 1990s, Hiraishi, a 20-year veteran of the real estate market, said she has never seen such rapid price growth.

In east Camarillo, median home prices jumped nearly 21% over last year.

“People’s incomes don’t increase 20% a year,” she said. “It’s just a matter of time until things are going to have to level off.”

But Lev said he believes a different type of buyer is fueling the current real estate boom and as a result the trend could last longer.

“I think in 1988 we had a lot of buyers who were just buying to get in. That just forced prices up,” he said.

“We haven’t gotten to that point,” Lev said. “Buyers are a little bit smarter today than they were 10 years ago.”

Analyst Riddel also said the housing market has changed, but she cautioned that the market is cyclical and, for the most part, is following the same speculator-driven boom-bust pattern that sent prices plummeting in the early 1990s.

“It has happened in the past,” she said. “Is it speculative now? I really couldn’t say.”

The Acxiom report includes sales of new homes, previously owned homes and condominiums broken down by ZIP Code. According to Wednesday’s report, almost every area in the county registered double-digit sales growth in July.

West Simi Valley, a particularly hot market, logged a nearly 95% upswing in sales. Sales in east Simi Valley--where the median price rose 11% over last year--grew by nearly 59% percent.

Ojai was also a hot market in July, with sales growing 50% and the median price rising 29% over last year.

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Ventura County House Sales

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July 1997 July 1998 Number Average Number Average City/ZIP Code of sales price of sales price CAMARILLO 93010 65 $204,000 115 $220,000 93012 72 $202,000 96 $244,000 FILLMORE 93015 14 $145,000 14 $134,000 MOORPARK 93021 71 $207,000 82 $223,000 OAK PARK 91301 36 $265,000 65 $330,000 OAK VIEW 93022 10 $146,000 11 $170,000 OJAI 93023 34 $175,000 51 $226,000 OXNARD 93030 87 $165,000 79 $171,000 93033 48 $136,000 67 $141,000 93035 49 $197,000 83 $202,000 PORT HUENEME 93041 23 $109,000 30 $128,000 SANTA PAULA 93060 19 $140,000 30 $162,000 SIMI VALLEY 93063 80 $175,000 127 $195,000 93065 96 $208,000 187 $220,000 THOUSAND OAKS 91320 78 $257,000 121 $259,000 91360 92 $220,000 124 $242,000 91361 21 $318,000 42 $296,000 91362 94 $274,000 141 $319,000 VENTURA 93001 27 $303,000 53 $254,000 93003 62 $179,000 87 $197,000 93004 23 $203,000 57 $214,000 COUNTYWIDE 1,101 $202,000 1,662 $224,000

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Source: Acxiom / DataQuick Information Systems