EYE ON IRAQ

Seven years after the Gulf War, the United States is on the verge of another massive military action against Saddam Hussein. A look at the issues and the military buildup in the region:

ECONOMIC SANCTIONS

Within days of Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait in 1990, the U.N. Security Council imposed strict economic sanctions on Iraq, most prominently an embargo on oil sales. After a U.S.-led military coalition drove the Iraqis out of Kuwait in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, the sanctions remained in place pending Iraq’s compliance with provisions of the cease-fire, including destruction of its nuclear, biological and chemical warfare capacity and its long-range missiles. Responding to privation the sanctions caused among the Iraqi people, the Security Council and the Iraqi government agreed to a program permitting Iraq to sell limited amounts of oil under U.N. supervision for food and medicine. That program now totals $2 billion every six months. U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has proposed increasing that to $5.2 billion.

THE U.N. INSPECTORS

The Security Council set up the U.N. Special Commission on Iraq, or UNSCOM, to monitor the elimination of Baghdad’s weapons of mass destruction. The Iraqi government has never fully cooperated, however, playing hide-and-seek with the commission’s inspectors. As a result, UNSCOM has not certified that Iraq is in compliance with any of the weapons provisions of the cease-fire.

IMPASSE

Iraq’s relationship with the inspectors has deteriorated in recent months as officials in Baghdad have placed large government installations, including presidential compounds, off-limits to investigators. UNSCOM believes that these facilities may house biological and chemical weapons or records of illegal arms research. Iraq contends that it has no such weapons and complains that UNSCOM is a pawn of the United States and will never permit the lifting of sanctions while Iraqi President Saddam Hussein remains in power.

ADMONITIONS

The 15-member U.N. Security Council repeatedly has adopted unanimous statements criticizing Iraq’s defiance of the inspectors. But Russia, China and, to a lesser degree, France have argued for continued diplomacy and against the use of force. Russia and France may be influenced by their desire to resume business with Iraq.

ARGUMENTS AGAINST MILITARY ACTION

Critics of the military option say it would have little effect on the long-term situation in Iraq. Air strikes alone are unlikely to remove Hussein from power, while civilian casualties might increase support for him at home and in the rest of the Arab world. Because chemical and biological weapons are easy to hide and relatively easy to manufacture, the bombing campaign contemplated by the U.S. would not eliminate Iraq’s illegal arms.

ARGUMENTS FOR MILITARY ACTION

The United States says the weapons inspection program has been rendered ineffective by Iraqi intransigence, and supporters of an attack believe that it might pummel Hussein into cooperating. They also argue that Hussein must be shown that there are consequences to defying the Security Council. Although air power alone cannot destroy all of Iraq’s proscribed arms, it can inflict considerable damage to the arsenal and to other props of Hussein’s regime, including Republican Guard military units and his intelligence apparatus.

U.S. PRESENCE IN THE REGION

DEPLOYMENT

Current: 30,000 (est.)

In Gulf War: 500,000

****

IRAQ’s FIREPOWER

Defense analysts say Iraq is still highly vulnerable, with an aging air defense and no navy:

Active armed forces: 350,000

Reserves: 650,000

Battle tanks: 2,000

Aircraft: 300-350 (as few as 100 may be serviceable)

****

PERSIAN GULF

3 aircraft carriers

15 other ships

150 combat aircraft

20,000 sailors and Marines

****

MEDITERRANEAN

4 ships

20 combat aircraft

****

KUWAIT

1,500 Army troops

6 fighter planes

****

BAHRAIN

24 fighter planes

2 bombers

****

SAUDI ARABIA

100 aircraft

****

THE BUILDUP

NAVY

Last fall: 2,300

Current: 20,000

*

AIR FORCE

Last fall: 6,000

Current: 7,400

Some key U.S.-Iraq confrontations since the 1991 Gulf War:

1992

Aug. 2

* “No-fly” zone imposed over southern Iraq

* Americans and allies begin air patrols

Dec. 28

* U.S. plane shoots down Iraqi MiG-25 violating “no-fly” zone

1993

Jan. 7

* Baghdad refuses to remove missiles in southern Iraq

* Allies attack missile sites in Baghdad

June 27

* Americans fire cruise missiles at intelligence headquarters in Baghdad in retaliation for Iraqi plot to assassinate former President Bush. Eight Iraqis die

1994

Oct. 7

* Iraqi troops move toward Kuwait

* Iraqis pull back when U.S. sends carrier group

1996

Aug. 31

* Iraqi forces capture, Irbil, key city in Kurdish area produced by allies

Sept. 3-4

* U.S. retaliates by firing cruise missiles at Iraqi antimissile sites

* President Clinton broadens southern “no-fly” zone to suburbs of Baghdad

Note: Numbers of military troops and equipment are approximate

Researched by CRAIG TURNER and EDITH STANLEY /Los Angeles Times

Sources: Jane’s World Armies, The Military Balance, Times staff and wire reports

More on Iraq, A1, A8