Threat of Slides Rises as More Storms Approach

Three powerful Pacific storms were bearing down on Southern California late Friday, bringing the likelihood of more drenching rain--and the threat of more mudslides, flooding and punishing surf--to already sodden Southern California.

The first storm, following what meteorologists called a “classic El Nino scenario,” was expected to slam into the Southland about noon today as efforts continued to shore up a rain-soaked San Fernando Valley hillside that collapsed before dawn Friday, tearing away a garage and forcing the evacuation of five homes.

Meteorologist Kevin Stenson said the first storm is expected to dump 1 to 4 inches of wind-driven rain today and Sunday, with most of it falling in a two- to three-hour period as the main storm front passes through the Southland early this afternoon.

“It looks quite rough,” the meteorologist said.

Scattered showers and possible thundershowers are expected to

continue through Sunday, and after a short break Monday, a second storm is due to invade Southern California on Monday night or early Tuesday.

“The second one is heading right for L.A., and it looks just as intense as the first one,” said Stenson, an employee of WeatherData Inc., which provides forecasts for The Times. “There should be another break on Wednesday and early Thursday, but by Thursday night, here comes the third one. Right now, the third one looks like the strongest of the three.”

Local officials were bracing for an onslaught.

“We have a number of contingency plans that are in place by which we’ll elevate to one of three levels of readiness,” said Capt. Scott Brown of the Orange County Fire Authority.

“The trigger is the amount of rainfall that occurs. So based on precipitation, we’ll activate a number of operational changes, for instance deploying swift water rescue teams on patrol if necessary,” Brown said.

The county’s farmers also are watching the darkening skies. “To date, there have been some losses of production, and strawberry growers have missed several picks because it’s just too wet,” said John Ellis, deputy agricultural commissioner.

“Strawberries are pretty tough plants, but the ripe red berries are pretty fragile and can get damaged by the rain,” Ellis said. “The season certainly hasn’t been destroyed, but if we had our way, a light shower one day a week would be just perfect.”

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Friday’s mudslide in West Hills occurred about 2:30 a.m., when a collapsing hillside ripped a 200-foot-long, 30-foot-deep gash under the house of Lou and Reata Vaughn, leaving their bedroom dangling over a chasm.

City building officials said that if the home had not undergone a seismic retrofitting after the 1994 Northridge earthquake, it would have tumbled into a muddy ravine.

In the damp of Friday morning, as they and their pajama-clad neighbors stood in the middle of the street marveling at the wreckage, the Vaughns could only be grateful for the quake they had once cursed.

“If I had my wits about me,” said Lou Vaughn, 66, “I’d be crying.”

The West Hills mudslide prompted the evacuation of the Vaughns’ and four other homes and threatened several other residences farther down the hill.

Because of the hazard, city officials took the unusual step of temporarily shoring up the privately owned hillside. Plans called for draping the affected area with plastic sheeting, draining away as much of the water as possible and driving in pilings to stabilize the ground.

With more rains expected, officials urged residents to make sure that water is draining properly from their property. The officials recommended clearing roof gutters and drains and, when necessary, draping bare slopes with tarpaulins.

“The hillsides are moving,” warned David Keim, the city’s principal building inspector. “The mud wants to slide like on a ski slope.”

The West Hills landslide was typical of the problems that can occur in Southern California, geologists said.

Many homes are built on slopes underlain by siltstone bedrock. After a hard rain, water begins saturating the soil above the siltstone. When the water reaches the siltstone--a process that usually takes several days--the bedrock begins to soften. The combination of heavy, water-soaked soil and crumbling bedrock creates conditions susceptible to landslides.

Bill Savage, chief of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Landslide Project, said geologists call such slides “big slow movers.”

“Southern California is the eye of the storm for landslides,” Savage said. “The big slow movers do a whole lot of damage, and they can last a long time.”

Friday’s early morning slide woke neighbors with a loud crash. Floyd and Minnie Rodrigues said they heard a sound like thunder and saw that their digital clock had gone dark.

Minnie Rodrigues, 73, ran down the stairs and noticed that the steppingstones that had once crossed her lawn were now headed down a newly created slope of mud. Then she looked up.

“My God,” she thought to herself. “The garage isn’t there.”

About 12 feet down and 20 feet away, the garage--with a car still parked inside--was wedged against the back of a neighbor’s home.

Another elderly couple, Virgil and Rita Palub, were trapped inside their home on Malden Street when a wall of earth slammed into their backyard. The weight of the soil twisted the frame of their house and jammed the doors shut. Firefighters had to hack through the door to rescue the couple.

“We thought this house was going to be the last one we would ever be in,” Rita Palub said. “I don’t think we’ll build again.”

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Those who do rebuild may have to bear the financial burden without assistance from their insurance companies, because most homeowner policies do not cover mudslides.

Richard Magdaleno’s home on Shoup Avenue was virtually unscathed by the mudslide, but his backyard is buried under a mound of wet earth, twisted fences and uprooted trees. He estimated that it would cost him about $50,000 to clear the debris and restore city-mandated grading.

In the gated community of Bel-Air Crest Estates atop the Santa Monica Mountains, three workers suffered minor injuries Friday morning when the rain-soaked wooden frame of a wall they were raising into place fell on them.

Los Angeles City Fire Department spokesman Brian Humphrey said the wall was being built in the 11700 block of Wetherby Lane. He said the workers underestimated the weight of the wood, which had been drenched by recent rains.

The three were examined at the UCLA Medical Center after complaining of sore necks and backs.

Building inspectors declared an unoccupied home in Los Feliz unsafe after neighbors noticed that recent rains had eroded the foundation beneath the house on Surry Street.

For those who like to compare this winter with the legendarily destructive El Nino winter of 1982-83, the region has already had more rain by the same date. The season’s total at the Los Angeles Civic Center as of Feb. 13, 1983, was 13.54 inches of rain; this year’s total was 14.54 inches.

Meteorologists aren’t saying the same thing will happen this year, but in 1983, the most violent and destructive storms came in March.

Stenson said the first storm in the current series--it’s the same one that dropped a lot of snow on Nagano earlier in the week--is following a familiar El Nino pattern.

He said that as it tracked across the Pacific, the tail of the cold, northern Pacific weather system swung far enough south to sweep up some extra moisture from a flare-up of thunderstorm activity south of Hawaii.

This moisture, meteorologists said, is adding to the rainfall from the storm.

The second storm--centered south of the Aleutian Islands late Friday--is following the same El Nino pattern as the first, Stenson said. The third, which was centered just east of Japan on Friday night, could follow suit, meteorologists said.

“But that third one may be the last in the series,” Stenson said. “That may be it for a while.”

Times staff writer Lisa Richardson in Orange County, David Colker and Solomon Moore in the San Fernando Valley and correspondent Sue McAllister on the Westside contributed to this report.

* RAINY DAY PLANS

El Nino could scuttle some events, but other organizers are prepared to improvise. B1

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

The Approaching Storm

The storm responsible for heavy snowfall that caused postponement of the men’s Olympic downhill racing in Japan is expected to hit Orange County this morning. Forecasters warn it could drop 1 to 3 inches of rain during a 24-hour period. Why a wave of winter storms is drenching Orange County:

Four-Day Forecast

Today: Cold front should hit by late morning, dropping 1 to 3 inches of rain

Sunday: Rain in early morning with possible afternoon thunderstorms

Monday: Partly cloudy; more rain likely in the evening as another front approaches

Tuesday: Rain likely with isolated thunderstorms

The Front Line

When winds move masses of cold or warm air from the area where they develop, the air masses come into conflict. Like a battle scene, they form a “front,” a concept developed after World War I by Norwegian meteorologists. Fronts can either move or remain in place and are often the scene of violent weather. If they move, one air mass is advancing, the other retreating.

Cold Front: Advancing cold air pushes warm air upward, usually causing thunderstorms. If it is very dry, clouds will not form.

Warm Front: As warm air covers cold air, low, thick clouds form and eventually yield rain.

Stationary Front: Neither front is advancing; clouds can form on either side of the boundary

Storm Formation

Fronts are usually parts of larger storm systems. But because storms draw energy from temperature differences, smaller storms can form the boundary between warm and cold fronts. How storms form:

1. Warm and cold masses of air are high-pressure areas with clockwise winds.

2. Low-pressure area forms on boundary, creating counterclockwise winds. A warm front forms to the east, a cold front to the west. Fronts combine with low pressure to agitate rain clouds.

3. Low-pressure area loses pressure as it grows stronger, fueling winds that spread clouds and precipitation.

Sources: WeatherData Inc., “The Weather Book,” “World Book Encyclopedia;” Researched by APRIL JACKSON/Los Angeles Times