UCLA Has Slipped

By CHRIS DUFRESNE

Nov. 3, 1998 12 AM PT

Fiesta Bowl or bust!

Uh, not so fast with those T-shirt orders.

Turns out, UCLA’s hold on the top spot in the bowl championship series rankings was a one-week weak one.

In what figures to be a hard-fought, never-say-die, seesaw battle with the computer the rest of the season, Tennessee juked UCLA with some nifty megabyte moves on Monday and knocked the Bruins into third place in this week’s BCS rankings.

Ohio State, publicly insulted after opening second at last week’s gala BCS inaugural, took over the No. 1 poll position with a rating of 3.71. Tennessee moved into second at 5.70, while UCLA tracks close behind in third at 6.62.

Only the top two schools in the BCS rankings--a complex, four-part formula implemented this season to, um, simplify the selection process--will meet in the Jan. 4 Fiesta Bowl for the national championship.

UCLA’s fall came in stages, starting with its fortunate 28-24 victory against Stanford.

A win is a win is a win?

Not in the computer age.

“I think that’s disappointing,” UCLA Coach Bob Toledo said when informed of his team’s BCS slide. “I was flattered last week, but what they’re telling us is it doesn’t matter if you just win. You have to win big. What it tells us is, we have to run up the score. I’m not going to run up the score.”

Now the coach is catching on to how this computer game is played.

Sunday, the Associated Press poll dropped UCLA from second to third, while the USA Today/ESPN coaches docked the Bruins two spots, from second to fourth.

Those demotions alone did not cost UCLA a piece of the No. 2 action. The Bruins held a 3.46-point lead over Tennessee in the first BCS poll and gave back only 1.50 points this week in the poll component.

UCLA got bounced out because of the vagaries of three computer polls used in the formula. While the Seattle Times computer kept UCLA at No. 1, both the Sagarin and New York Times computers dropped the Bruins from first to fourth, costing UCLA two critical computer points.

Why the differences? The Seattle Times computer does not factor in margin of victory, while the Sagarin and New York Times computers do, although they have “collapsible” limits on blowout wins.

The man UCLA needs to keep an eye on the rest of the way is Jeff Sagarin, the former MIT math whiz who has become an emerging force in this national title race.

Sagarin, who lives in Bloomington, Ind., runs the poll out of his house. You need to be a MIT grad to make sense of his calculations.

On Oct. 20, Sagarin had Kansas State rated No. 1 in his poll and UCLA No. 2. The following Saturday, Kansas State recorded a 52-7 victory over Iowa State, while UCLA won a close game at California, 28-16.

Yet, the next week, UCLA zoomed to No. 1 in Sagarin’s computer.

This week, following another blowout Kansas State victory and another close UCLA win, Kansas State surged to No. 1 while UCLA fell to No. 4.

There is nothing important about this, except that it might cost UCLA a shot at its first national title since 1954.

Yet UCLA remains in solid shape, as long as the Bruins keep winning. Tennessee’s .92-point lead over UCLA is tenuous because the Volunteers’ strength of schedule is weaker. Tennessee’s four remaining regular-season opponents have a cumulative record of 15-16. UCLA’s four opponents are 19-13.

Take heed, UCLA. Those voting coaches can be forgiving too.

Last year, Nebraska dropped from first to third in the coaches’ poll after a fluke win over Missouri. But, less than two months later, the coaches handed the two spots back with bouquets as it awarded retiring Tom Osborne a share of the national title.

No one is suggesting Bob Toledo dramatically retire after a dramatic win over Miami on Dec. 5.

But every computer point helps.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Bowl Series

1. Ohio State

2. Tennessee

3. UCLA

4. Kansas St.

5. Florida

Associated Press

1. Ohio State

2. Tennessee