Midterm Tallies Boost White House Hopefuls

WASHINGTON —  The midterm election results that led to the surprise resignation of House Speaker Newt Gingrich also bolstered the status of each party’s early front-runners for the 2000 presidential campaign: Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore.

Bush gained ground not only as a result of the size of his more than 2-to-1 reelection margin of victory as Texas governor but also because of its scope. He took half the Latino vote and more than a quarter of the black vote, both normally parts of the Democratic support base.

“Winning nonstandard constituencies helps, especially when the Republican Party in general did not have a good day,” said Keith Fortmann, executive director of the Republican Party in Iowa.

As for Gore, the vice president earned chits and respect within his party by stumping on behalf of fellow Democrats around the country, filling the role that would ordinarily have been played by scandal-ridden President Clinton.

More than that, argues one Democrat consultant, the favorable results for Democrats dispelled the notion that Clinton, because of his tarnished personal reputation, “would be a millstone around Gore’s neck” when he launches his expected White House candidacy.

Still, it’s early as the presidential calendar goes. Questions loom over the potential candidacy of each front-runner. Bush, for all the appeal he has demonstrated in the Lone Star State, remains untested nationally. Gore still has to worry about the ongoing Justice Department investigation of his role in alleged 1996 fund-raising abuses--an investigation that could lead to the naming of an independent counsel.

No wonder then, in each party, a covey of wannabe presidential candidates is lurking in the weeds, pondering challenges to the leaders. But, analysts say, the hill these longshot candidates would have to climb has become much steeper because of Tuesday’s balloting.

On the Republican side, Bush, the eldest son of former President Bush, benefited not only from his own performance in Texas but from the success of his younger brother Jeb, who won the governorship in Florida. That leaves the Bush family in charge of two of the nation’s largest states, both laden with convention delegates and key elements in any GOP majority in the electoral college.

Another plus for front-runner Bush was the loss suffered by the Republicans in the House of Representatives.

“The Republicans are now at a point where they realize that a hiccup is enough to lose them control of Congress,” said veteran GOP strategist David Keene.

And that, along with the turmoil swirling around the GOP congressional leadership in the wake of Gingrich’s departure, should make the party more inclined to nominate Bush, who because of his family background and his own record in Texas is viewed as a safer bet than some of the lesser-known possibilities, Keene said.

Other candidates who party operatives take seriously are:

* Lamar Alexander. The former Tennessee governor’s biggest assets are the experience and support he gained running in 1996 and his skill at organizing. If Bush flops, Alexander could lay claim to his centrist support.

* John Ashcroft. In the early skirmishing, the Missouri senator has displayed the best-honed message of those contending for conservative Christian support. Another plus: His reputation as a tax cutter in the Senate. But raising the big money needed for the race could be a fatal obstacle.

* Steve Forbes. The fame he won in 1996 and his willingness to spend his own fortune make the publishing magnate a threat to win the nomination. But the flat tax that was the foundation of his candidacy could be his undoing in 2000.

* Dan Quayle. A hard worker in the hustings, the former vice president is still the No. 1 heartthrob of many conservative activists who revere him for the enemies he made. He also has impressed with his fund-raising ability. But, said one Republican professional, “he is still standing in the hole he dug for himself when he was vice president.”

In the Democratic camp, Gore looked like a solid bet even before the midterm vote. In recent decades, three vice presidents have sought their party’s presidential nomination: Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert H. Humphrey in 1968 and George Bush in 1988--and all proved unbeatable.

This week’s election helped Gore because the surprising Democratic successes in the South, where the party won three tight Senate races and unseated two Republican governors, made plausible the notion that Tennessean Gore could win part of the South in the 2000 general election.

“Rank-and-file Democrats down here like Gore,” said Merle Black, a specialist in Dixie politics at Atlanta’s Emory University. “And the idea that Democrats were able to win some elections in the South helps anyone who is associated with the White House,” as Gore of course is.

Assuming he avoids legal trouble, “as long as the economy stays good, no one can touch Gore,” said Robert Borosage, director of the Campaign for America’s Future, a liberal policy group.

But if recession looms, Gore’s candidacy would suffer, and those who might try to take advantage of the situation include:

* Bill Bradley. The former New Jersey senator has been contemplating a run for president on and off for a decade. “He would bring star quality” to the race, because of his basketball fame, one of his former consultants said. But his centrist do-goodism is not the sort of creed that wins backing in Democratic primaries.

* Richard A. Gephardt. Potentially, the House Democratic leader would be Gore’s most formidable rival because of his ties to organized labor. But he may be reluctant to run now that the Democrats are closer to a majority in the House, which would make him speaker.

* Bob Kerrey. The Medal of Honor winner who fought in the Vietnam War has demonstrated his appeal to Republicans and independents in his Senate races in Nebraska. But he has yet to show that he can develop a focused national message, the lack of which wrecked his presidential bid in 1992.

* Paul Wellstone. The Minnesota senator may be the most likely of all prospects to enter the race against Gore, and the least likely to win. “He is a passionate and compassionate liberal who can stir the base,” said one Democratic consultant. But most doubt he can get backing outside the party’s shrunken left wing.