Stakes High in Today’s GOP Vote in Michigan

EAST LANSING, Mich. —  An aggressive John McCain accused Republican presidential rival George W. Bush of “character assassination” on the eve of a Michigan primary that some view as make-or-break for the Arizona senator.

The Texas governor, meanwhile, stuck to the issues, leaving it to his aides to protest McCain’s appeals for support from Democrats and independents.

Today’s vote carries enormous stakes for both contenders, but particularly for McCain, who needs the victory to overcome the establishment support and financial resources that Bush has assembled as the national front-runner. Bush defeated McCain decisively Saturday in South Carolina, nearly three weeks after McCain convincingly won in New Hampshire.

McCain is expected to easily win another primary today in his home state of Arizona. But the critical contest is in Michigan. Polls there show the two candidates in a race too close to call as they head into another open primary where McCain is reaching out to moderate Republicans as well as Democrats and independents.

“The big question here is how many independents and Democrats turn out [for McCain] . . . and if that motivates at least an equal number of Republicans to get out for Bush,” said Bill Ballenger, editor of the nonpartisan newsletter “Inside Michigan Politics.” He added that the primary is “huge for McCain. If he loses here, he’s finished.”

Experts say the appeal to crossover voters could anger Republicans and galvanize the party’s support for Bush, as it did in South Carolina. There, Bush took nearly 70% of the Republican vote on his way to an 11-percentage-point victory. McCain’s challenge in Michigan is to win more GOP voters.

The Michigan race grew increasingly hostile Monday.

McCain criticized Bush for ads he called misleading. Michigan voters “deserve better than the trash that’s on your television set and over your radio,” he said at a town hall meeting in Traverse City. He urged voters to “reject this negative campaigning, reject this character assassination, reject the low road to the presidency and support the high road.”

Bush is airing one ad in which he accuses McCain of attacking his integrity by comparing him to Bill Clinton: “Politics is tough, but when John McCain compared me to Bill Clinton and said I was untrustworthy, that’s over the line.” In the second, Bush challenges McCain’s reformer credentials. An announcer says, “Sen. McCain? Five times he voted to use your taxes to pay for political campaigns. That’s not real reform.”

McCain’s ads are biographical; the Clinton ad to which Bush refers ran briefly in South Carolina. He pulled it, vowing to eschew negative campaigning.

In appearances from Detroit to Lansing on Monday, Bush assumed the posture of a front-runner. He largely refrained from attacks on McCain in favor of fiery issue speeches and an occasional foray against Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore, as well as the Clinton administration.

Buoyant and speaking in a near-shout, Bush bounded from event to event. “I like what I feel here in Michigan,” he said.

Bush’s staff, however, showed no such restraint. Aides pointed reporters to one man who said he considered supporting McCain until he heard that union leaders and inner-city ministers were encouraging Democrats to vote for the Arizona senator. “That made me really mad,” said John Karns, 61, of Birmingham.

Karns, who is Catholic, said he and his wife also received a taped phone call Monday that said, “Catholic voters alert,” then warned them that Bush had spoken at “anti-Catholic Bob Jones University” and that “Bush is anti-Catholic.”

Bob Jones University in Greensville, S.C., is a fundamentalist school that bans interracial dating. Its founder espoused anti-Catholic views.

Karns said he assumed the message was made by McCain, but his wife thought it might have been an outside group. The McCain campaign denied knowledge of it.

Bush Aides Decry Appeals to Democrats

Bush aides also released a mailer they contended was sent to Democratic voters by McCain’s campaign, urging their participation in the primary.

“The Democrats are not holding a presidential primary in Michigan,” said the flyer, which featured a picture of McCain. “But you can still make your vote count by voting in the Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, Feb. 22.”

McCain aides said they could not confirm whether they had mailed the letter. But they acknowledged that 20,000 flyers had been sent to Democrats urging them to vote for McCain in the Republican primary.

“We are trying to build our party and make it larger and stronger,” McCain campaign director John Weaver said.

Private polls in Michigan reportedly showed Bush leading McCain. But a survey by Zogby-Reuters released Monday showed McCain with a slight lead, within the margin of error.

A veteran analyst said Bush has waged an effective campaign to win core Republicans while McCain has appeared bitter and defensive.

“I just have a hunch that George W. [Bush] is going to pull this one out,” said Lyn Nofziger, a former Ronald Reagan aide who is not affiliated with either campaign. “Republicans are still more likely to go to the polls than Democrats in a Republican primary. And I just think McCain has . . . come across as a whiner who doesn’t accept defeat very graciously.”

Meanwhile, McCain has taken to mocking Bush’s post-New Hampshire make-over as a “reformer with results” and has sought to illuminate differences on ideological issues. For example, Bush advocates $483 billion in tax cuts; McCain would cut that in half and devote more to Social Security and debt reduction. McCain also criticizes the Texas governor’s record on health care and cutting government spending.

McCain’s staff accused Christian evangelist Pat Robertson, a Bush supporter, of a nasty telephone campaign. They played a message they said was left on the answering machine of a Lansing voter, in which Robertson calls McCain’s campaign chairman, Warren Rudman, “a vicious bigot who wrote that conservative Christians in politics are antiabortion zealots, homophobes and would-be censors.”

Neither Rudman nor Robertson could be reached for comment.

Bush aides denied any knowledge of the calls. Still, McCain spokesman Howard Opinsky charged, “This is well over the line of acceptability.”

In Michigan, Bush has a dominating campaign operation led by Gov. John Engler, a popular leader who pulled out all the stops for his Texas counterpart.

Accompanied by Engler, Bush began his day Monday at American Axle & Manufacturing in Detroit, saying, “I’m going to battle for every vote.”

Then he headed to a breakfast speech at the Economic Club of Detroit, where--after first reminding everyone to vote--he hammered home such themes as tax cuts for all, a better-funded, more mobile military, and increased free trade.

McCain took his “Straight Talk Express” to Traverse City for the endorsement of former Gov. William Milliken. There, McCain fielded questions from voters for the first time in several days.

He used a query on health care to make the point that large campaign contributions had stalled any solution to providing health care for the uninsured.

“Who loses? Who loses?” he said, describing the effect of contributions. The crowd shouted back: “We do!”

McCain continued: “And that’s why, when I talk about campaign finance reform, my friends, it’s not a theoretical issue. It impacts you every single day. It keeps you from being heard.”

On Monday night, he flew home to Arizona to vote.

Arizona a Test of Expectations

In Arizona, McCain faces a test of expectations. Bush supporters contend that McCain can’t claim victory unless he wins by at least 25 points.

McCain spokesman Dan Schnur countered that only a victory was needed. If McCain had wanted a huge margin in his home state, Schnur said, he would have spent more time and money there.

Nofziger, the former Reagan aide, concurred: “He only needs to win by one vote. A win is a win is a win.”

McCain was again outgunned on the money front, spending $30,000 on Arizona radio commercials starting Sunday. Bush has spent $1.5 million on Arizona television ads alone. In Michigan, Bush’s TV ads through Saturday cost $2.6 million; McCain’s ads cost $1.6 million.

Looking past Michigan, McCain staffers tried to focus on the March 7 primaries that include California, New York and more than a dozen other states. “We’re at the beginning of a crusade, not the end,” said Rick Davis, McCain’s campaign manager. “The key is to keep viable in these early primaries.”

Observers agree. But remaining viable, many say, may mean a solid win in Michigan.

Times staff writer Janet Wilson contributed to this story.

* DEMOCRATS CLASH

Al Gore and Bill Bradley traded barbs on racial issues at N.Y.’s historic Apollo Theater. A12