Endgame for Israel and Syria

Months of secret diplomacy have cleared away some of the minefields in Israel-Syria relations, and meetings at the White House a few weeks ago gave a ceremonial start to a peacemaking process in which the United States intends to be deeply involved. Now, in a tiny college community in West Virginia, the endgame begins. The outcome cannot be foretold, but clearly the Syrian and Israeli governments alike have concluded that their national interests are best served by finding a pragmatic alternative to more than 50 years of conflict that has sapped the resources of each.

The basic components of a deal involve security, sovereignty and the nature of a peace agreement. Syria seeks to regain the Golan Heights, which it lost to Israel in the 1967 war. Israel wants ironclad security guarantees, including demilitarization of the heights and an elaborate early-warning system to prevent any surprise attack. It also wants a normalization of relations that would allow for diplomatic recognition and open borders.

Territorial issues turn on arcane differences. Syria says Israel must withdraw to the June 4, 1967, border. Israel, determined to protect its vital water supplies, wants Syria to accept a line slightly to the east. That would place Syrian control a bit farther from Lake Kinneret (the Sea of Galilee) and the Jordan and Yarmuk rivers. Each side bases its position on what it deems a vital interest.

President Hafez Assad can be confident that any deal he makes will be rubber-stamped by Syria’s People’s Council. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak will have to fight hard for support. He has promised to submit to a referendum any deal he reaches with Syria and, in separate talks, with the Palestinians. For Barak, successful outcomes with Syria and the Palestinians would still leave major political battles to be waged and won.