Fixed Error Lowers Rate of Homicide

Reaching new heights in the fight against crime, LAPD officials have resurrected six people killed in the San Fernando Valley last year.

Well, sort of.

A previously unnoticed clerical error attributed six homicides to the Van Nuys Division when, in fact, the incidents were robberies, officials say.

For the Los Angeles Police Department, the error is significant. Instead of having an overall increase of two homicides last year, Cmdr. David J. Kalish--the department’s spokesman--said the LAPD now shows a decrease of four, continuing a streak of seven years in which homicides have dropped in Los Angeles.

Capt. Robert McNamara, who is in charge of the Van Nuys station, said the mistake was a simple one.

“It’s really not a mystery,” McNamara said. “It was just a matter of a clerk issuing a number and that number not being classified in the right category.”

Although the change does not make a sizable difference in the overall numbers, the correction is a psychological boost for the department and the community.

“We’re always striving for reductions in crimes, particularly homicides,” Kalish said.

According to the new preliminary LAPD statistics, there were 424 homicides last year compared to 428 in 1998--a year that saw a tremendous drop-off in the number of murders. That year-end figure could change, authorities say, if people die this year from wounds they sustained last year, or if a death is reclassified.

One difficulty in following the precise number of homicides in the city is the confusing, and uneven, manner in which they are tracked by the LAPD. For example, on Wednesday department officials released several conflicting sets of numbers on homicides. Not only are 1999 statistics in a preliminary stage, but the department has yet to settle on a figure for 1998. The LAPD’s Web site and a top police official said there were 428 homicides in 1998, but a document released by the department’s media office showed 433. A statistical digest put out by the LAPD last spring, meanwhile, indicated there were 419 that year.

“Obviously, in a huge organization dealing with an incredible amount of data, there will be minor discrepancies that will occur and will be corrected as they are finalized,” Kalish said.

At 424 homicides, the 1999 total was comparable with levels of 30 years ago, even though there now are many more people living in the city. In addition to homicides, other violent crimes, including rape, robbery and aggravated assault, experienced declines, dropping about 6% from 1998.

Since 1992, there has been a tremendous drop-off in the number of violent and petty crimes committed in the city. But the pace of the decline has tapered off somewhat. Some criminologists and academicians see the relatively static level of homicides as a sign that the crime rate may soon bottom out.

Eric Monkkonen, a UCLA professor who studies national homicide statistics, said he believes there is room for further reductions in crime, particularly in homicides.

Currently, Monkkonen said, the homicide rate in Los Angeles is about 11 victims for every 100,000 people. In 1950, he said, the homicide rate was about 3.3 victims per 100,000.

“We can do better. It’s a social goal that’s not that impossible a dream,” Monkkonen said.