Iowa Caucuses: Many Follow, Few Participate

RED OAK, Iowa —  Irene Parker lives across the street from the grain silos looming over this bleak farming town in southwest Iowa, an 81-year-old ex-factory worker with the potential to play a small but important role in the race for president.

On this particular day, the Bush for President motorcade comes clattering up across from Parker’s white clapboard house, depositing the Texas governor, his staff and more than two dozen world, national and local media members before a crowd of prospective voters.

Parker takes no notice of the spectacle. Despite living in one of the nation’s bellwether political states for eight decades, Parker has never been to a caucus. And, like most of her fellow Iowans, she never plans to go, either.

“I don’t even pay attention to it. I’m not really interested,” Parker said after a knock at her front door pulled her away from the Weather Channel recently.

Despite the importance of the Iowa caucuses, and their reputation as a remarkable example of participatory democracy, barely one out of every 10 registered voters in Iowa will turn out for the gatherings Monday.

And the 150,000 to 200,000 people who do show up don’t exactly look like a cross-section of America. They tend to be white, male, with college degrees and political leanings slightly more conservative or liberal than most. Many are also activists, pressed into service by their membership in organizations like labor unions or churches.

Iowans give a variety of reasons why they don’t attend caucuses. For some, it’s simple apathy. For others, especially the elderly, the harsh weather conditions in January can discourage participation. For still others, it’s simply a question of time.

In part, that’s because the caucus system is a time-consuming and complex process that requires voters to attend lengthy meetings in the evening that can last past midnight.

Nonparticipants From All Walks of Life

Those who pass up the caucuses come from all walks of life: both the employed and jobless; rich and poor; whites and minorities.

One person whose voice won’t be heard on caucus night is Melody Fossett, 34, who stood with her three children watching as Texas Gov. George W. Bush walked around the tiny Glenwood, Iowa, town square last week. Fossett works two jobs since her husband hurt his back working a few months back.

“It takes so much time to get there,” Fossett said. “I’m working day and night.”

John Halterman, 54, moved to Iowa from California about seven years ago. Although he said he routinely voted in California primaries, he has so far ignored the Iowa caucus process.

“It’s basically a waste of time,” he said as he watched Bush come out of a grocery store in downtown Glenwood. “A lot of times, they get off the subject and start talking about something completely different.”

Even those who have studied and admired the caucuses admit they aren’t the best way to pick candidates interested in the issues that concern the rest of the country. Some say the caucuses unfairly weed out those whose views are more moderate. Others say they are biased against those who don’t have the organization necessary to tackle the complicated caucus process.

“It’s a pretty big judgment based on so few people,” said Hugh Winebrenner, a Drake University professor who is one of Iowa’s leading experts on the caucus system. “But it’s grass-roots democracy at its best.”

In actuality, Iowa has rarely had the role of king maker. The last time a candidate won a contested Iowa caucus and went on to become president was Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Instead, the caucuses’ main role in the past has been to winnow out candidates and provide a boost to others. In 1972, the first year that Iowa played a major role in presidential politics, South Dakota Sen. George S. McGovern’s strong showing damaged the presumed favorite in the Democratic contest, Maine Sen. Edmund M. Muskie.

“Iowa is not the end-all. It’s a litmus test,” said Rob Tully, chairman of the state’s Democratic Party. “It’s a litmus test for party regulars to decide those two individuals who most closely match what democratic values really are.”

Understanding the caucus system is a bit like trying to figure out politics in the Balkans. The rules are arcane, the playing field isn’t always fair and the results are sometimes murky. In fact, one technique used by campaigns and organizations to mobilize their supporters is to sponsor training sessions that teach Iowans how to participate in their own caucuses.

Instead of walking into a voting booth and pulling a lever, Iowans gather at 2,142 meeting places throughout the state--fire stations, civic centers, even, in rare cases, each other’s living rooms. Once there, they discuss the candidates, go over the issues and try to persuade one another how to vote. At the end of the process, which can take hours, they vote and, based upon that tally, select Republican and Democratic candidates.

That only begins to describe the complexities of the process. Republicans and Democrats have different ways of allocating the votes at the caucuses. And Democrats have certain minimum voting requirements that, in some cases, deny a candidate any votes.

For instance, a Democratic candidate must achieve at least a 15% threshold at each caucus or he is eliminated and his supporters must fall in with another candidate.

Iowa Democrats may also be out of practice this year. The last time Democratic participation exceeded 100,000 was in 1988. Clinton’s 1996 reelection campaign drew about 25,000 Democrats, and just 35,000 turned out in 1992 when Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin was such a strong local candidate that there was little competition for the Democratic vote.

Even more confusing is that the results of the Iowa caucuses do not determine who the state will allocate its delegates to the national nominating conventions. That comes later.

“It’s like trying to understand the Bulgarian parliament,” said Mike Murphy, a campaign strategist for Sen. John McCain, who chose to avoid Iowa partly because the logistics were too great for his limited campaign budget.

Jeffrey Jennings is typical of the hearty few who show up at the events. A broad man with a congenial manner and a ruddy face, Jennings is a sixth-generation Iowa farmer, struggling to make money off 1,500 acres of hogs and grain, and hoping for better days.

Jennings, 36, is the secretary for his Republican caucus, a modest event that takes place in a little church in a town in southwest Iowa. About 20 to 40 people show up in a good year. All the participants know each other. The discussion tends to be civil, and over in an hour or two.

Jennings defended Iowa’s right to have first crack at weighing the presidential candidates.

“We’re a diverse state. We have cities too,” Jennings said. “We’ve got rural people, city people, young and old.”

Caucuses Have Many Supporters

The caucuses have many supporters among politicians and political experts.

For one thing, running a campaign in a small state like Iowa doesn’t take nearly the money that running a campaign in California or New York would. That opens the process to candidates who would otherwise not have a shot to compete with better-financed politicians.

Another reason for Iowa’s role is its small population. With only about 2.8 million residents, an astonishing two-thirds of caucus voters have seen or met one of the candidates.

In a contested race, the candidates can spend a combined 1,000 days in the state in the two years leading up to the election. The intense level of politics allows voters to conduct a far more penetrating comparison of candidates than the average Californian can.

Still, even that doesn’t guarantee participation--or even interest among many Iowans.

In Glenwood, cashier Sandy Cook watched silently through the storefront windows of Coast to Coast Hardware as a mass of reporters, Bush supporters, local politicians and the man himself churned past her store.

After they had moved on, she returned to the cash register to ring up another purchase. Despite living in Iowa all her life, Cook, 44, said she had never been to a caucus.

“I’m not really sure what they’re about,” she said.

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