Elderly Projected to Become Largest Age Group in O.C.

Senior citizens will soon be the largest age group in Orange County, jumping to nearly a quarter of the population by 2020, a study released Wednesday shows.

As the baby boomers who spurred the county’s growth over the last decades reach retirement age, they will require health care, social services and housing that the county is not prepared to provide, the Chapman University report says.

People 60 and older now make up about 14% of the county’s population. By 2020, they will represent nearly 23%, or about 733,000 people, the study shows.

James L. Doti, president of Chapman University and the study’s author, said the effects of this shift will reach deeply into the county. Government agencies, large companies, even mom-and-pop businesses will be scrambling to adjust.

The population change “is largely being ignored,” Doti said. “But it needs to be given attention by just about everyone.”

County Supervisor Cynthia Coad said the county is only in the early stages of addressing the looming need for increased funding. She said the Board of Supervisors is working with the area’s agencies to identify where help is going to be needed most.

“I can see that it needs to get a lot more interest,” she said.

Health care agencies in particular will face increased demand for services from seniors who want to stay independent but will need some type of in-home care. Agencies already are struggling under the current number of cases, officials of the county’s Council on Aging said. Government funding has been especially tight in past years, said council Director Pamala McGovern, adding that while the allotments are increasing, the agency has to be aggressive about fund-raising to help those in need.

Even home builders will be affected, the study shows. There will be a drop in demand for housing geared toward families, the study shows, and a sharp increase in the need for housing for seniors. And small business owners will need to change their products and make them appealing to seniors to remain competitive, Doti said.

Though the increase of the senior citizen population is a national trend, Doti said, its effects will be felt more acutely in Orange County because of its growth patterns. Most of the county was settled during the 1950s; those residents are now in the over-60 age group. Now, with the county’s growth rate down nearly 12% compared with the ‘50s boom, Doti said, there’s little room for younger families to move into the area.

The study’s conclusion that the county is ill-prepared for the demographic change has some baby boomers worried about their future. “Baby boomers are used to having a nice lifestyle,” said Mary Kavli, 53. “This [reality] is going to have a big impact on a lot of people.”