Poll on El Toro Finds Support Still Lagging

In renewed bad news for supporters of a second Orange County airport, nearly 58% of voters say they are opposed to building a new facility at the closed El Toro Marine base, according to a new survey released Thursday.

Airport foes continue to dominate in South County cities closest to the base, but for the first time, more than half of North County voters--52%--indicated they also oppose building the new airport.

The survey was conducted by the Center for Public Policy at Cal State Fullerton and sponsored by the Orange County Business Council, which has historically supported an airport at El Toro.

Additionally, about 44% of the 544 voters surveyed said they now are “strongly opposed” to the airport, indicating a growing number of hard-core opponents even as a majority of Orange County supervisors continues pushing for the controversial airport.

But Stan Oftelie, executive director of the business council, said voter attitudes haven’t changed significantly since a comparable survey was completed in February, just before voters passed an anti-airport ballot measure by a 2-to-1 ratio.

Public support for the airport continues to sag because South County cities have spent millions fighting it, Oftelie said.

But Keith Boyum, director of Cal State Fullerton’s policy center, said history shows that multimillion-dollar advertising campaigns rarely have a dramatic effect on committed voters.

“People who report that they feel strongly about something tend to stay in that position,” Boyum said.

Analysts on both sides of the issue agree the campaign for Measure F last March tipped voter attitudes against the airport. The measure calls for two-thirds voter approval before the county can build airports, large jails near homes and hazardous-waste landfills.

The recent poll results validate the notion that Measure F--which captured 67% of the vote--was a mandate against the airport, said Len Kranser, spokesman for Citizens for Safe and Healthy Communities.

The fate of Measure F, challenged by El Toro supporters, is being weighed by a Los Angeles County judge. A ruling must be handed down by Dec. 10.

Pro-airport spokesman Bruce Nestande said that while the county has been planning the airport, it has not successfully sold it as a necessary addition to Orange County and Southern California. Nor has the county countered the flood of advertising from the other side, he said. Indeed, opinion surveys show more residents support expanding John Wayne Airport than building a new one at El Toro.

“No question, that has greatly handicapped us,” Nestande said. “If you can’t respond to clear statements of error, they become factual. What’s been going on is a campaign for the public’s attention, and in any campaign, you can’t absorb misinformation and expect to remain on top.”

Meanwhile, South County forces haven’t rallied behind a clear alternative to the airport, he said. There are three plans on the table: two with differing mixes of houses, commercial development and large parks, and one centered on a large urban park with a museum and college campus.

Airport foes have said they want a measure to kill the airport outright on the ballot in 2002, rescinding voter approval for the airport that narrowly passed in 1994. It is likely such a measure would replace the airport zoning for either the mixed redevelopment or the park plan.

Some anti-airport voices warned against being too swayed by poll results. Voter attitudes can be volatile and the political situation in 2002 is uncertain, said Mark Petracca, professor of political science at UC Irvine.

The 1994 vote came during a local recession when the argument that an airport would bring jobs swayed many voters, he said.

“This is a very live issue as long as you have [the original airport vote] on the books,” Petracca said. “North County’s thin preference against an airport could change back with effective advertising or the anticipated effect of a recession.”

The Cal State Fullerton survey was conducted between Oct. 2 and 18, with 544 voters questioned by phone in English. The margin of error was 4.3% with a confidence level of 95%, meaning the results of 95% of the individual questions could range by 4.3% either way.

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AIRPORT STILL DOESN’T FLY

A majority of Orange County voters remain opposed to building an international airport at the closed El Toro Marine base, according to a new survey released Thursday by California State University Fullerton, which polled in conjunction with the Orange County Business Council. The results mirror a Los Angeles Times Orange County poll in February.

CSUF

November 1999

Yes: 42%

No: 47%

Don’t Know: 11%

*

LATimes

February 2000

Yes: 33%

No: 57%

Don’t Know: 10%

*

CSUF

October 2000

Yes: 33%

No: 58%

Don’t Know: 9%

Source: California State University Fullerton, Los Angeles Times Orange County Poll