Good Bush, Bad Bush: Democrats Feel Both--With Different Results

WASHINGTON —  The iron fist or the velvet glove?

In the months ahead, a key question in Washington is which approach will shape President Bush’s dealings with Congress, especially Democrats. In a stark juxtaposition, Bush applied both techniques last week--with emphatically different results.

On Friday, after adamantly refusing to negotiate with Democrats until the last minute, Bush suffered his first legislative reversal as the Senate approved a budget plan that sharply reduced his $1.6-trillion, 10-year tax cut.

However, just hours earlier, after exhaustive talks, the administration reached an agreement with both Senate Democrats and Republicans on sweeping reforms in federal education programs. With backers now arrayed from Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) on the left to Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R-Ark.) on the right, that bill appears on track for bipartisan Senate approval later this month.

“The process we went through on education is exactly the way it ought to be; we’ve had good ongoing discussions, we’re on the brink of a product . . . on which everyone can claim ownership,” said Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.). “On the budget, it’s been exactly the opposite. . . . You almost have to use different sides of the brain to explain it.”

Why Bush pursued a harder line on the budget than the education bill isn’t clear. One reason may be that he starts from a more centrist position on education than on the budget, making it easier to reach common ground with Democrats.

Another explanation may be that taxes are a greater priority to Bush’s ideological base. And Bush--perhaps mindful of the difficulties his father, former President George Bush, faced with conservatives--has been extremely careful to avoid alienating his base.

The budget and tax fight also appeared to assume an outsize importance for the White House as a virtual rite of passage for Bush. Early on, White House strategists concluded that it was more important to demonstrate strength by passing a budget as close as possible to his blueprint than to make concessions that might bring over several Democrats to pass the bill comfortably in a Senate split 50-50 between the parties. The irony is that the desire to show strength led to the first sign of weakness: the vote shrinking the tax cut by 27%, to about $1.2 trillion.

One senior White House official argued that the contrast in deliberations on the budget and education bills arose not from the White House approach but from the Democratic response. The official said the bills evolved so differently because Democrats were willing to accept Bush’s broad approach on education but not on taxes.

“Our approach was consistent throughout, which was, let us find common ground and work together,” said the official, who asked to remain anonymous while discussing White House strategy.

Few Democrats accept that explanation. Even centrist Democrats willing to support a larger tax cut than the $900-billion plan that party leaders offered complained that the the Bush White House refused to negotiate revisions that might have allowed them to support the president’s bill.

Indeed, Sen. John B. Breaux (D-La.), although viewed from the outset as a potential Democratic vote for the package, groused that, even in private, Bush simply repeated his public argument that his $1.6-trillion figure was “just right.” Breaux also complained that the president spent more time trying to build public pressure on moderate Democrats through visits to their states than dickering with the lawmakers behind closed doors.

The senior White House official insisted the problem was that centrist Democrats did not give the administration a clear enough sense of what changes might bring their votes. “We have had an open attitude when people come forward with specifics,” the official said. “But you could never get these guys to say, ‘Here was my number and these are the guys who would come with me.’ It was always, ‘Give me a much lower number and maybe I’ll vote for it.’ ”

Still, the administration was slow to negotiate with Democrats even after Breaux and other centrists proposed a $1.25-trillion tax cut early last week. Instead, it tried to reel in wavering Sen. James M. Jeffords (R-Vt.); only when those efforts failed did the White House engage in some last-minute discussions with Breaux. Ultimately, the administration was forced to accept a budget resolution with a $1.18-trillion tax cut--less than what Breaux had offered.

“The president could have gotten a substantial portion of what he’s hoping for with bipartisan support, but he chose to make the $1.6-trillion figure almost a talisman,” Bayh said.

Both Parties Conceded on Education Measure

On the education bill, the experience was utterly different. From the outset, White House policy aides Margaret LaMontagne and Sandy Kress negotiated intensely with both Democrats and Republicans over every aspect of the measure.

The result was a deal reached late last week--even as Bush’s budget was being reshaped--in which each side made genuine concessions to the other.

One example illuminates the pattern that marked the talks. The compromise did not include Bush’s proposal to provide private school vouchers to low-income parents whose children attend public schools that persistently fail to improve. That likely will be debated in a separate amendment on the Senate floor.

The deal does provide those parents with vouchers they can use to purchase tutoring or other after-school help. That was a concession to centrist Democrats led by Bayh and Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.), who proposed that idea.

In a concession to Bush, however, the deal says that those vouchers will be funded with federal money that would otherwise go to the failing school; the administration argues that such diversions would impose a marketplace pressure on schools to improve.

So, the question looms: Which one of these negotiating approaches will dominate as Bush moves forward on his domestic agenda? So far, he’s sent emphatically mixed signals.

He did not tip his hand in his national radio speech Saturday, in which he urged citizens to make their opinions known as crucial votes near on both the tax cut and education reform.

Noting that Congress is on a two-week recess, he suggested that citizens attend the town hall meetings that many of the lawmakers will conduct. “Don’t just send them what you earn--tell them what you think,” Bush said. “I hope they’ll listen carefully. There are large decisions that must be made when Congress returns.”

On other issues, Bush has already threatened to veto legislation with bipartisan support to give more rights to patients in health maintenance organizations; sponsors such as Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and John Edwards (D-N.C.) are complaining that, as on the budget, the administration has been unwilling even to discuss ways to narrow their differences.

However, Bush has pointedly refrained from issuing a veto threat on the campaign finance reform legislation the Senate passed early last week. He’s also shown a willingness to listen to critics--on the left and the right--of his bid to increase government partnerships with religious charities.

Which Tack Will Bush Use in Budget Battle?

The most immediate choice that Bush faces is which approach to apply to the next stages of the budget struggle. As the budget resolution moves to a House-Senate conference, conservatives hope that the White House will push for a tax cut as close as possible to the $1.6 trillion that Bush proposed--and that the House approved. But a conference report that emerged with a figure close to that would probably guarantee another near party-line vote in the Senate, with the outcome pivoting on the preferences of one or two Republican moderates, particularly Jeffords.

The alternative for Bush is to hold down the tax cut to a level closer to the Senate bill, which drew support from a surprising 15 Democrats. If such bipartisan support was sustained for the final budget bill, that could help Bush reverse the sharp polarization evident in public opinion over his young administration.

The senior White House official said that, with the bill now clearing its first hurdles, the administration will be more receptive to detailed negotiations with Democrats. But the White House and Senate Republicans made clear Friday that they will try to push the final package in the direction of the House bill.