The Tortoise and the Hare: A California GOP Primary Tale

SACRAMENTO

Who would have thought it? Bill Simon Jr. and his guru, Sal Russo--that’s about all.

Certainly not Richard Riordan. Not the political pros. Not the pundits.

Boy, were we wrong!

Who’d have thought that political neophyte Simon would be running ahead of former two-term Los Angeles Mayor Riordan, according to the polls, on the brink of the election? Thought that somebody who had never even voted in a state primary, based on L.A. County records, would be in position to win the primary--and become the Republican nominee for governor.

It’s the most incredible come-from-behind race--and the worst fall-on-your-face stumble--in modern California politics.

Put it this way: Last September, according to the independent Field Poll, Riordan led Simon by 41 points. A month ago, Riordan still led by 33. By Wednesday, Simon had surged ahead by 6 points.

Nobody is predicting next Tuesday’s outcome. But win or lose, Simon’s run has been remarkable. And Riordan’s has been just awful.

How’d they get to this spot? Here are some ways:

* We all saw it on TV. Gov. Gray Davis tripped Riordan running down the track. Democrat Davis may wind up spending more than any Republican in the GOP primary, around $8 million for anti-Riordan attack ads.

Davis’ messing in the Republican primary--the all-out effort to choose his own fall opponent--is unprecedented in California politics.

The tag line in one of Riordan’s TV ads is exactly on target: “Dick Riordan: the Republican Gray Davis fears the most.” Well, correct that: feared--before Davis started kicking him.

Davis plans to keep running the anti-Riordan attack ads until election day. He hopes to take out the moderate candidate on Tuesday so he won’t have to face him in November.

It’s equivalent to what President George Bush should have done in 1991: Go all the way to Baghdad and take out Saddam Hussein.

* The single, most devastating blow to Riordan, many say, was delivered by former Gov. George Deukmejian. The revered Republican held news conferences and did a TV spot declaring: “Riordan is a man I couldn’t vote for.”

Deukmejian started speaking out three weeks ago at a Republican state convention. He gave wavering conservatives all over California justification to reject Riordan.

He complained that Riordan had raised $1 million for Democratic causes, half of it for his two-time opponent, then-L.A. Mayor Tom Bradley.

Riordan was right during a debate when he said Deukmejian held “grudges.” But he was wrong to say it, drawing gasps from shocked delegates.

Deukmejian’s TV ad was aired to help Secretary of State Bill Jones. It was Jones’ only real impact on the race. The spot badly wounded Riordan. But it didn’t even begin to heal Jones, a party pariah for having double-crossed George W. Bush in the 2000 presidential primaries.

* From the start, this race was Riordan’s to lose. And he ran like he intended to.

In short, Riordan tried to ignore the elephant in the room. This was a Republican primary, after all.

Riordan took conservatives for granted and appealed to the moderates he’d need in November. He emphasized his position on abortion rights and told the party that its “pro-life” platform plank seemed anti-women. Become “inclusive,” the former mayor warned, or become “an extinct species.”

Many party activists might have agreed, but they didn’t like their faces rubbed in it.

Not until the very end has Riordan begun to stress core Republican issues: low taxes, safe streets, quality education.... Positions that, incidentally, also appeal to many Democrats.

Riordan is not a good listener, associates say. He doesn’t take advice easily--even on a subject he knows zilch about, like statewide Republican politics.

Nor does he have the personality or communication skills to wing it.

* Simon, by contrast, does listen and follow direction--especially from his veteran campaign strategist, Russo. And he smiles a lot. He’s likable.

“A compassionate conservative,” Simon calls himself. Mostly, he stayed above the mud-splattering and followed the conservative playbook: capital gains tax cut, less business regulation....

Simon got an indispensable boost from Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor whose popularity soared after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Giuliani cut TV ads for Simon and stumped with him, attracting invaluable attention to the little-known underdog.

Still, investor Simon couldn’t have done any of it without pumping $5 million of his own money into the campaign.

Who would’ve thought? Decades from now, politicians and pundits will be reminding themselves: Remember Dick Riordan. Remember Bill Simon.