Iran bomb feasible by 2010, U.N. official says

VIENNA —  The head of the United Nations nuclear inspection agency warned for the first time Thursday that Iran probably can enrich enough uranium to build a nuclear bomb in three to eight years, a judgment that sparked fresh concerns about Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

Mohamed ElBaradei, director of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, gave his assessment a day after a strongly worded IAEA report cautioned that Tehran had reduced its cooperation with U.N. inspectors while sharply accelerating its uranium enrichment efforts.

ElBaradei’s appraisal of Iran’s bomb-making potential matches that of U.S. intelligence, but the timing of his statement suggested he was taking a harder line on Iran than he had previously. Speaking to reporters at a conference on nuclear disarmament in Luxembourg, he urged Iran and the West to find a way to restart negotiations as soon as possible to avoid a “major confrontation.”

“Iran needs to suspend its enrichment activities as a confidence-building measure but the international community should do its utmost to engage Iran in comprehensive dialogue,” ElBaradei said.

In Washington, President Bush condemned the Tehran regime for ignoring a U.N. Security Council deadline to freeze its enrichment effort by this week. At a news conference in the Rose Garden, Bush said he had instructed Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to work with European partners toward stronger international sanctions against Iran.

Bush added that he intended to personally lobby Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, and China’s leader, Hu Jintao.

“The first thing that these leaders have got to understand is that an Iran with a nuclear weapon would be incredibly destabilizing for the world,” Bush said. “It’s in their interests that we work collaboratively to continue to isolate that regime.”

The Security Council imposed limited trade and travel sanctions against Iran in December, and stiffened them in March, giving it a 60-day deadline to stop enrichment. Russia and China supported both measures, but have expressed concern that a further crackdown may impede a diplomatic solution.

Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, declared Thursday that his nation would press ahead with enrichment despite international concerns and an armada of U.S. warships conducting military exercises off its coast. Ahmadinejad, who has insisted that Iran seeks only to produce nuclear energy for civilian purposes, said the West wanted to stop Iran from becoming a world power.

“If we stop for a while, [Iran’s enemies] will achieve their goals,” Ahmadinejad told a gathering of Republican Guard officers, according to Iranian television. “The enemy wants Iran to surrender so it won’t have any say in the world.”

Despite four years of inspections, the IAEA has been unable to determine whether Iran’s enrichment effort is only for peaceful purposes. The same equipment can produce fuel for civilian reactors or for nuclear weapons.

According to the IAEA’s most recent report, Iran has installed more than 1,600 centrifuges, which are used to enrich uranium, and is building more than 500 others, at its main nuclear facility at Natanz. The equipment is still being tested, however, and so far has produced insignificant quantities of enriched uranium.

Iran has refused in recent months to allow U.N. inspectors to visit a heavy water reactor under construction at Arak and has stopped providing crucial design information about the centrifuges and other equipment. As a result, knowledge of Iran’s nuclear program is shrinking, the IAEA report warned.

Formal negotiations aimed at persuading Iran to suspend its program broke down last year. The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, is expected to meet Iran’s top nuclear negotiator in coming weeks in an effort to revive the talks.

ElBaradei angered Bush administration officials last week when he told reporters that the effort to persuade Iran to scrap its program before it produces nuclear fuel had been “overtaken by events” because the Iranians “pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich.”

Gregory L. Schulte, the U.S. ambassador to U.N. agencies in Vienna, met privately with ElBaradei on Wednesday to deliver an official diplomatic complaint about his comments. British and French envoys plan to lodge a similar complaint today, according to a senior U.N. official.

*

bob.drogin@latimes.com