‘Witless Protection’ plots a wise course

Larry the Cable Guy’s “Witless Protection” is coming out on Academy Awards weekend, but producer J.P. Williams knows the silly crime comedy is a far better bet next year to snag a Golden Raspberry award for dubious achievement than Oscar gold.

“We shoot for the Razzies,” said Williams, who has built a lucrative empire around Larry, the country fried alter ego of Dan Whitney, and his feller “blue-collar” comedians.

“Certain studios are in it for statues, but I’m in it to make money because it’s my money on the line,” Williams said.

Sony Pictures’ heavily marketed political thriller “Vantage Point” will dominate the box office this weekend with about $22 million in ticket sales.

But Williams and distributor Lions Gate Films believe their lowbrow “Witless,” opening today at 1,300 theaters, can be modestly profitable even if it takes in $3 million to $4 million for the weekend, as expected, and barely cracks the top 10.

That’s because box office is only part of the story when it comes to the movie business.

Larry -- known for his exaggerated accent (“I’m gonna rescue me a damsel in dee-stress,” he vows in a scene from the new movie’s trailer), flannel muscle shirts and the catchphrase “Git-r-done” -- has a loyal following and is a hot seller on DVD.

For Whitney’s first starring role, 2006’s critically reviled “Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector,” Williams said he footed the $4-million production budget and the $12 million in marketing costs.

That film grossed only $15.7 million in its full theatrical run, but it sold a relatively robust 2.1 million DVDs at retail and to rental companies, yielding some $30 million in revenue and healthy profit for Williams’ Parallel Entertainment.

Last year’s follow-up to “Health Inspector,” the military spoof “Delta Farce,” grossed a mere $8.1 million but crawled into the black after selling 1.6 million DVDs and racking up more than $5 million in pay and free TV sales.

Williams, who gambled $6.2 million to produce “Witless” and is covering two-thirds of the movie’s $12-million marketing budget, expects to at least break even if it matches “Delta Farce” theatrically.

“Vantage Point” carries more risk, of course, but offers its backers greater upside if it clicks with audiences.

The PG-13 thriller, produced for about $40 million by Sony and its financing partner Relativity Media, is tracking well in market research surveys with consumers across all demographics and opens at more than 3,100 theaters in the U.S. and Canada.

Critics say the movie doesn’t quite live up to its intriguing premise, revolving around an apparent assassination attempt on the U.S. president as seen from the vantage points of eight witnesses.

But even if moviegoers agree, word of mouth might not affect the early results.

The recent No. 1 movies “Fool’s Gold” and “Jumper” earned a collective “eh” from IMDB.com users.

“Vantage Point” packs plenty of star power, with a cast including Dennis Quaid, Forest Whitaker, William Hurt, Sigourney Weaver and Matthew Fox from the TV hit “Lost.”

The terrorism theme in the movie’s plot has been box-office poison for other films, so it’s no surprise that the ad campaign plays up the mystery.

Spots on the Super Bowl and the “Lost” season premiere pointed viewers to an online game called “Can You Solve the Puzzle?”

The movie’s mosaic-style poster is a throwback to classic thrillers in the Hitchcock vein.

Two other comedies open less widely than “Witless Protection” and also could be headed for less than $5 million apiece.

New Line Cinema’s “Be Kind Rewind,” starring Jack Black and Mos Def as video store clerks who remake “Ghostbusters,” “Driving Miss Daisy” and other VHS oldies, unspools at 800 theaters.

MGM’s “Charlie Bartlett,” starring Anton Yelchin as a clever teenager who becomes his high school’s unofficial psychiatrist, complete with pill-dispensing privileges, starts at 1,100 locations.

Robert Downey Jr. plays against type as a strait-laced principal.

The film, produced by Sidney Kimmel Entertainment for $11.5 million, has gotten decent grades from critics, but its R rating presents a marketing hurdle considering that teens would seem the natural audience.

Kimmel execs have tried to spread word of mouth through college screenings, and they say the movie plays surprisingly well to the over-25 set.

They are marketing “Charlie” to moms, hoping they’ll bring their teens, even if they have to sit several seats apart to avoid stigmatizing them.

Sunday’s Oscar telecast could dampen this weekend’s overall results a tad, but the award winners should get bumps starting Monday either at theaters or on DVD.

Projector’s fearless -- or at least clueless -- predictions:

The devastating Iraq war film “No End in Sight” will win best documentary, signaling not only the show’s running time but also a big night for movies starting with the word “No.”

In the acting races, bet on Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” and Julie Christie in “Away From Her” as leads, and Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men” and Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There” for supporting. They’re intimidating, but cool. Foreign, but not too foreign.

“The Bourne Ultimatum” will earn the editing prize, partly as consolation for being the year’s best movie. Hello?

Shockers will include Poland’s “Katyn” over Austria’s “The Counterfeiters” in the foreign language category, and “Juno” taking best picture while the Coen brothers bag best director for “No Country.”

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josh.friedman@latimes.com

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Weekend Forecast

The new political thriller “Vantage Point” is expected to lead the movie industry at the box office this weekend. Along with the films listed below, contenders to make the top 10 include “Juno” and “Charlie Bartlett.” These figures are Times predictions only. Studios will issue weekend estimates Sunday and final results Monday.

*--* Movie (studio) 3-day Through the weekend Weeks prediction (millions) 1 Vantage Point (Sony) $22.5 $22.5 1 2 Jumper (20th Century 12.5 56.5 2 Fox) 3 The Spiderwick 12.0 43.5 2 Chronicles (Paramount) 4 Step Up 2 the Streets 9.5 41.7 2 (Disney) 5 Fool’s Gold (Warner 7.0 53.5 3 Bros.) 6 Definitely, Maybe 6.0 22.9 2 (Universal) 7 Welcome Home Roscoe 5.0 36.7 3 Jenkins (Universal) 8 U2 3D (National 4.5 8.3 5 Geographic) 9 Be Kind Rewind (New 4.0 4.0 1 Line)

10 Witless Protection 3.5 3.5 1 (Lions Gate) *--*

*--* Source: Times research Los Angeles Times *--*