To become governor, Villaraigosa must overcome being mayor

If one could design a mayoral term that would lead flawlessly to higher office, it would not be the one served by Antonio Villaraigosa.

Votes were still being counted for his 2005 election as mayor of Los Angeles when he was lauded as the next big thing among Latino politicians, the one who could break the century-old lock of white men on the governorship. National figures came courting. But locally, things quickly went south.

He spent much of his first term fighting an economy that at first stumbled, then fell headlong into the ditch. That, of course, was when he was engaged in his job and not on the road campaigning for national politicians or dealing with personal failures.

All politicians have considerable egos; how else, really, could they wake up one day and decide that they alone are best suited to run a city, a state, a nation? Election confirms their inner Sally Field -- They like me! -- and the bubble that surrounds them holds reality at bay.

But in the latest Times Poll, voters offer the Democratic mayor a bracing jolt of reality as he prepares to start his second term. In short, they appear to be saying: “Get a grip. If we have to give up our ambitions and hunker down for survival, so too should you. And so should the government you lead.”

The poll, the subject of articles in today’s and Monday’s papers, illustrates as much as anything the effect of the recession on the spirit of people who are usually fairly hardy and irrepressibly optimistic. There is a broad and depressing sobriety about Los Angeles now, arguably a logical response to events that have taken homes and jobs and retirement accounts from even those who have worked hard and played by the rules.

People are “very distraught” about the city, said pollster Stanley Greenberg, one of the survey directors. “There’s much more pessimism than in the past.”

Voters described the sharp toll the economy has taken on them and were explicit about how they expect government to respond. Stretched already, they flatly turned down the idea of new taxes, even for services that have long enjoyed popular support, including firefighting, libraries and parks. They do not want to lay off city workers, but they back furloughs to cut the city’s massive budget deficit. They seemed supportive of almost nothing except the LAPD.

In other words, they want government at its most succinct: Safe streets. Good schools. As lean as can be.

“If anything, voters are willing to say they want a no-frills government,” said Neil Newhouse, the other architect of the survey.

That, of course, was the same message state voters sent in May, when they turned back a package of budget measures agreed to by the Republican governor and the Democratic Legislature. And Villaraigosa is likely to have one of the same problems the governor has had: Politicians entranced by the love of the masses have a hard time dishing up disappointment.

For the mayor, the more difficult problem is timing. Politicians with lucky timing come into office in bad economic situations and ride the inevitable cycle back to prosperity. Politicians with unlucky timing, as Villaraigosa would appear to have, do the reverse.

To make a serious bid for governor, the mayor will have to declare his intentions within weeks -- and many in the political establishment will argue that even that is too late, given that his potential party competitors, Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, have been scouring the state for months now. There is no chance that the economy will improve markedly by then. There is little chance that it will improve enough by next spring’s gubernatorial primary to give Villaraigosa some bragging rights.

The mayor’s numbers are not terrible, the way the governor’s are. A little more than half the city’s registered voters approve of the job he is doing as mayor; they appear, Newhouse said, to be saying he’s done the best he can. But much of his support comes from his strong popularity among Latino voters, who are key to any election in Los Angeles but carry less sway in statewide elections. Among white voters in Los Angeles, he has a net unfavorable job rating.

And even among those who believe he’s done a good job, a substantial proportion don’t want Villaraigosa to run for governor or say they plan to vote for someone else. Without a firm Los Angeles base, a run for governor becomes even more problematic.

Political professionals will tell you that voters get a sense of a politician organically; they absorb all manner of information gleaned from a variety of sources and generally come to a strong internal sense of the character and proposals being projected. They frequently seem to make a pretty fair assessment of a candidate, which is often expressed with the brevity of a bumper sticker slogan.

That is another of the problems facing Villaraigosa.

He came into office pledging to enact an ambitious agenda. With time not his friend, he needs voters to gain a sharp, immediate sense of him if they are to rally to his side as mayor or as a candidate for governor.

To many of them now, however, he is still in some ways an empty vessel.

Asked his top accomplishments in his first term, more than half of voters said either “nothing” or that they did not know. Nothing else leaped above the radar, as he got smatterings of support -- but no real groundswell -- for improving public safety and traffic.

The results did not change much even among voters happy with Villaraigosa’s tenure.

“They want a change of priorities,” Greenberg said, “and a change of direction.”

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cathleen.decker@latimes.com

Each Sunday, The Week examines implications of major stories. It is archived at latimes.com/theweek.