Vote on replacing Anthony Weiner to test Democrats

New York’s 9th Congressional District should be a seat that Democrats hold in the face of any disaster, man-made or natural -- but that political wisdom will be sorely tested next week when voters choose a replacement for Anthony Weiner, forced to resign in disgrace amid a sexting scandal.

What should be a safe seat has turned into a toss-up, the Rothenberg Political Report announced Thursday, citing new media buys by Democrats fearing a loss of the seat once held by Sen. Charles Schumer. Weiner, a former aide to the senator, took it over in 1999 and held the seat until June, when he was forced to resign after acknowledging that he used the Internet to transmit lascivious photos of himself to women.

According to the Rothenberg Report, the House Majority PAC, a Democratic outside group, is expected to spend $100,000 on television ads. Meanwhile, Hotline On Call reported that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has made a $483,500 television buy, also in support of the Democrat, Assemblyman David Weprin, who faces Republican Bob Turner, making his second run for the seat.

In addition to spending money, Democrats have been sending out pleas for money, the latest coming from Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who urged her supporters to rush a $5 contribution to help Weprin stay on the air against what she called a “tea party” opponent.

The New York race has become a national test of Democrats’ staying power and a measure of how much President Obama has been hurt by this past summer’s political disenchantment, when his approval rating has fallen. Turner has tried to capitalize on the political unhappiness.

The Republican has been helped by a strong endorsement from former New York City Mayor Ed Koch, a Democrat who has crossed party lines before.

Koch endorsed Turner, arguing that the district needs to send a message to Obama, particularly about his policy concerning Israel, which Koch and others see as being less supportive of that country than they would like, even though the president has insisted that he is continuing a policy of backing the Jewish state even while trying to restart Mideast peace talks.

The Israel card is an important one in a district where perhaps a third of the voters in Tuesday’s special election are likely to be Jewish. And a significant minority will be Orthodox Jews in a congressional district that includes parts of Brooklyn and Queens. Weprin, the son of a former speaker of the Assembly, has noted that he is Jewish and strongly backs Israel, which he has often visited.

Turner has run in the district before, gathering almost 40% of the about 117,000 votes cast in 2010. That was in a race against Weiner, then riding high as political name and considered a contender for mayor.

A survey by the Siena New York Poll in August showed Weprin up by 6 percentage points -- uncomfortably close for a Democrat -- at 48%-42%.