‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’ will be a force but likely not enough to lift box office sales over last year

The North American box office is projected to be down at least 2% from the record set in 2016, despite the surely astronomical performance of the Walt Disney Co.’s “Star Wars: The Last Jedi.”

Ticket sales in the United States and Canada are estimated to clock in at $10.95 billion to $11.15 billion, according to ComScore, a data firm that tracks box office.

That means industry revenue would be down 2% to 4% from last year’s $11.38-billion total.

The yearly decline reflects a film business that has failed to recover from a poor summer movie season peppered by major flops, raising questions about the overall health of a theatrical movie industry grappling with changing consumer habits.

Bullish analysts and studio executives argue that the film industry is cyclical and that a 2% decline from a record year is still a strong showing. But the numbers look worse when accounting for rising ticket prices. Analysts expect admissions — the number of tickets sold — to fall more than 5% year-over-year.

“The Last Jedi,” which opens Thursday night, will give the industry a much-needed boost and lessen the drop-off.

Another stellar opening

The latest “Star Wars” movie, the follow-up to 2015’s “The Force Awakens,” will probably gross about $200 million in the United States and Canada through Sunday, according to people who have reviewed pre-release audience surveys. In a positive sign, reviews have been mostly favorable, indicated by a score of 93% from the critics aggregation site Rotten Tomatoes on Tuesday.

No one expects “The Last Jedi,” directed by Rian Johnson of “Looper,” to match the record-shattering $248-million domestic launch of its predecessor. That earlier film, with J.J. Abrams steering the spaceship, was powered by years of pent-up demand for a new “Star Wars” movie featuring fan favorites such as Han Solo and Princess Leia.

However, “The Last Jedi” will surely outperform the $155-million bow of last year’s “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,” the first of a planned series of spinoffs.

“The Last Jedi” should also play huge internationally. It’s expected to amass more than $225 million in ticket sales from foreign countries this weekend, for a global launch of $425 million. The film opens in all major markets this week, with the big exception of China, where it hits theaters Jan. 5.

Don’t care about ‘Star Wars’?

As “Star Wars” looks to blot out the box office sun, rival studios will release a handful of movies to appeal to people whose eyes glaze over at the mention of the Force, the Millennium Falcon and the First Order.

This weekend’s Exhibit A in so-called counterprogramming is the animated film “Ferdinand,” based on a beloved children’s book about a bull that would rather sniff flowers than fight in the ring. Produced by Fox’s computer animation unit Blue Sky Studios, the film is likely to gross $15 million to $20 million through Sunday.

For grownups and cinephiles, Guillermo Del Toro’s acclaimed fairy tale “The Shape of Water” from Fox Searchlight will expand to 150 theaters nationwide after scoring seven Golden Globe nominations this week — the most for any movie. Other award-season indies seeking audience attention include A24’s “The Disaster Artist” and Neon’s “I, Tonya.”

During the weekend starting Dec. 22, Universal Pictures’ musical sequel “Pitch Perfect 3” and Paramount Pictures’ quirky Alexander Payne comedy-drama “Downsizing” will try to attract the crowds of film-goers who aren’t interested in, or have already seen, “The Last Jedi.”