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Economic bright spots: Trade deficit narrows; jobless claims fall

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WASHINGTON -- The nation’s trade deficit fell sharply in June to an 18-month low, with U.S. exports hanging tough despite the debt problems in Europe and the global economic slowdown, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

The drop in the trade deficit, to $42.9 billion from $48 billion in May, means economic output was probably stronger in the second quarter than initially reported. The government’s early estimate of gross domestic product for the April-to-June period was 1.5% annualized, but the better trade data suggests that the figure will be revised to a rate closer to 2%.

Separately, the Labor Department said new claims for jobless benefits dropped to 361,000 for the week ended Saturday, from a revised 367,000 in the prior week. The claims data -- an indicator of layoff trends -- have been bouncing up and down this summer, in part because of the difficulty of seasonally adjusting for temporary shutdowns in the auto industry.

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Analysts nonetheless viewed the latest weekly decline as an encouraging sign, after new jobless filings had jumped to 392,000 in the middle of June. The more reliable four-week moving average showed new jobless claims at 368,250 for the week ended Saturday, up slightly from 366,000 in the prior week.

The June trade numbers surprised analysts; most were expecting little change in the deficit. But U.S. imports fell by $3.5 billion from May, to $227.9 billion. The drop was widespread and reflected the weaker growth and demand in the U.S. Americans bought less crude oil as well as foreign-made capital goods and consumer products.

U.S. exports, by contrast, grew by $1.7 billion from the prior month, to $185 billion. That’s a slower pace of increase compared with earlier this year, but was still welcomed by economists, some of whom were expecting weakening exports with the recession in the Eurozone and a slowdown in China and other emerging economies. Apart from food and beverages, U.S. exports in June grew for all major categories, including consumer goods, cars and industrial supplies.

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“The easing in global demand and the strengthening in the dollar have yet to take a major toll on the U.S.,” said Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics.

“But we doubt this can last,” he added in a note to clients Thursday. “Survey measures of export orders have already fallen sharply, and it probably won’t be long before the actual export growth slows.”

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