Latinx Files: What does the electorate look like in key swing states?

Periodically, the Latinx Files will feature a guest writer. This week, we’ve asked De Los reporter Andrea Flores to step in.

Back in June, Mike Madrid, a longtime Republican political consultant and author of “The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority Is Transforming Democracy,” made the following claim in this newsletter:

“For 30 years, I’ve been asked this question by all types of reporters: ‘Are Latinos going to be the decisive vote in this election?’ I said no. In 2024, for the first time in my career, I’m saying yes — Latinos will be the decisive vote.”

Madrid pointed out that the Latino vote has historically been a nonfactor in presidential elections because the Latino population has been geographically concentrated in places like California, Texas and New York — states that have been solidly blue or red for years. In 2024, however, the path through the White House has to go through states like Arizona, Nevada and Georgia — all of which have seen an increase in the number of eligible Latino voters since the last presidential cycle.

Approximately 17 million Latinos nationwide are projected to vote in November — a 6% increase over 2020 and 40% more than 2016. One in five will be casting their first ballot in a presidential election, a sign that highlights how the Latino population in the country flipped from being primarily foreign-born to majority U.S.-born over the last two decades.

“Latino voters are set to play a pivotal role in the 2024 elections,” said Dr. Rodrigo Dominguez-Villegas, research director at UCLA’s Latino Policy and Politics Institute, which has put out a series of data briefs with demographic information on the Latino electorate in various states. Demographic analyses for California, Arizona and Nevada have already been published. Voter profiles on Pennsylvania and Florida will be released this fall.

Dominguez-Villegas said that the impact of this demographic’s turnout will largely depend on the effectiveness of both campaigns to reach Latino voters, who, as he points out, are not a monolith.

“Their diverse backgrounds and perspectives mean their impact will vary across different states and sometimes even across different races in the same state,” he said.

As we get closer to the presidential election, we’ve put together a quick look at what the Latino electorate looks like in several battleground states.

Arizona

Joe Biden managed to flip Arizona in 2020 by a margin of 10,457 votes. He credited Latino voters for his victory in the state, where 814,000 Latinos cast a ballot. More than 855,000 Arizona Latinos are expected to vote this November, according to the National Assn. of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO).

Latino Arizona voters will also likely be a deciding factor in the Senate race between Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican candidate Kari Lake. Gallego, who is leading in the polls, would be the state’s first Latino senator if elected.

Georgia

Biden beat Donald Trump by a margin of 11,779 votes in Georgia. In 2020, 178,000 Latinos in the state voted, with more than half choosing Biden. In 2024, 196,000 Latinos are expected to cast a ballot.

A web series by the nonpartisan organization GALEO Impact Fund released this month revealed that the rising cost of living is of top concern for Georgia’s Latino population, alongside wages.

Wisconsin

In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by a little over 20,000 votes. That year, 101,000 Latino voters turned out, with 60% favoring Biden over Trump.

A significantly larger electorate of Wisconsin Latinos are expected to vote in the upcoming election — 180,000. Some top issues for those voters include cost of living, wages and healthcare.

Nevada

Back in 2020, Biden secured Nevada’s six electoral votes by fewer than 34,000 ballots; 239,000 Latinos voted, 61% for Biden.

According to NALEO, 276,000 Latinos are expected to vote in the upcoming election. Some of the key issues in the state include inflation and immigration, Stateline reports.

Pennsylvania

Biden won Pennsylvania four years ago by just more than 80,000 votes. Statewide, 270,000 Latinos voted, 69% of whom favored Biden over Trump.

According to Pew Research, there are an estimated 615,000 Pennsylvania Latinos who will be eligible to vote in November’s election. Some of the key issues in the state include the cost of living and healthcare.

UCLA professor and pollster Matt Barreto noted that the East Coast swing state is ethnically diverse, including a mix of Puerto Rican, Mexican and Dominican residents.

“It’s an extremely interesting and diverse electorate, and you need to understand that diversity in order to win,” Barreto told CNN. “You can’t only have a Puerto Rican flag in every single piece of outreach. It won’t resonate with Dominicans or Central Americans or Mexicans.”

North Carolina

Trump won North Carolina by a margin of 74,481 votes in 2020. That year, roughly 240,000 Latinos voted, with 57% favoring Biden. According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, nearly 305,000 registered voters in the state self-identified as Latino as of July.

Frederick Vélez, senior director at the Hispanic Federation, one of the largest Latino advocacy organizations in the country, says Latino voters in the state are being neglected by both parties.

“[Some issues] make people lean to the right. Some of the other topics might make people lean to the left. At the end, I think that this is just going to be kind of like a last-minute decision for Latinos, especially because there hasn’t been the outreach that other groups have received,” Vélez told to the Raleigh News and Observer.

(Jackie Rivera / For The Times; Martina Ibáñez-Baldor / Los Angeles Times)

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