Emmys 2024: Who’s going to win in the drama categories?

When Emmy FYC events began in March, FX’s “Shōgun” was in the midst of its acclaimed run, with viewers tuning in weekly to lap up the court intrigue, feudal politics and, yes, those tense tea ceremonies.

At the time, everyone figured that “Shōgun” would be an Emmy powerhouse — in the limited series categories. The 10-episode adaptation of James Clavell’s 1975 historical novel told the book’s story from beginning to end. It was a brilliant, nuanced rendition. And it was complete. It doesn’t get more limited than that.

But then, a week after the Emmy submission date, FX announced that “Shōgun” would return for “likely” two more seasons. And just like that, “Shōgun” shifted to the Emmys’ drama categories because, you see, it’ll be back. Someday. So, to put “Shōgun” in limited series would be disingenuous. Of course, someone at the network might have surveyed the competition in the drama categories and seen a barren landscape, ripe for the taking. Why not move it?

To which I have only one thing to say: Thank you!

It’s unthinkable now to imagine the Emmy drama categories without “Shōgun.” What series would have won? I heard from readers after the nominations wondering how programs like “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” “The Morning Show” and “3 Body Problem” could possibly have been nominated for drama series. What? You wanted Marvel’s “Loki” or “Star Wars: Ahsoka” instead? Thanks to the strikes, this was the weakest group of contenders in decades.

So get ready for one of those Emmy nights where five shows win just about everything. And one of the shows will be “Shōgun.” As for nearly everyone else, in the immortal words of Hiromatsu: “You will know what it is to be denied.”

DRAMA SERIES
“The Crown”
“Fallout”
“The Gilded Age”
“The Morning Show”
“Mr. & Mrs. Smith”
“Shōgun”
“Slow Horses”
“3 Body Problem”

Winner: “Shōgun”

If you’re going to complain that “Shōgun” isn’t a drama series, I’m going to assume you don’t think “The Bear” is a comedy either. OK. But then doesn’t the high camp of “The Gilded Age” mark it squarely as a comedy? What’s it doing here? And if half the audience is tuning in to “The Morning Show” purely to hate-watch, shouldn’t that disqualify it as a drama, even if the Primetime Emmys don’t have a soap opera category?

LEAD ACTRESS
Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show”
Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age”
Maya Erskine, “Mr. & Mrs. Smith”
Anna Sawai, “Shōgun”
Imelda Staunton, “The Crown”
Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show”

Winner: Sawai

For a while, it felt like the only person who could take this Emmy over Sawai was Emma Stone, who won her second Oscar earlier this year for “Poor Things” and might have been even better in “The Curse,” in which she and Nathan Fielder played hosts of a home renovation show. But then Stone wasn’t nominated. And neither was “The Curse” — for anything. That shutout feels more cringe-inducing than anything this weird, disquieting show offered.

So that leaves Sawai, who probably would have won easily anyway. Maybe her breathtaking turn as Lady Mariko will prompt more people to watch “Pachinko,” which returns on Aug. 23 for a second season. She’s terrific in that too, playing a young woman trying to be taken seriously in the corporate world of late-1980s Japan.

LEAD ACTOR
Donald Glover, “Mr. & Mrs. Smith”
Walton Goggins, “Fallout”
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”
Dominic West, “The Crown”
Idris Elba, “Hijack”

Winner: Sanada

Oldman has enjoyed a brilliant career, and the foul-mouthed, flatulent, booze-soaked veteran secret agent Jackson Lamb might be the best thing he has ever done. It was nice to see him — and “Slow Horses” — finally receive some love from Emmy voters. Could he go on to win? Not with Sanada in the category. Here’s another actor with a stellar résumé and plenty of accolades from his native Japan. It’s his moment.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Christine Baranski, “The Gilded Age”
Nicole Beharie, “The Morning Show”
Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”
Greta Lee, “The Morning Show”
Lesley Manville, “The Crown”
Karen Pittman, “The Morning Show”
Holland Taylor, “The Morning Show”

Winner: Debicki

How does “Shōgun” pull in 25 nominations but not one for Moeka Hoshi? Were voters behind some sort of “eightfold fence” when they were watching the show?

Looking at the nominees, it is strange that they hail from just three shows. I found it difficult to predict which women from “The Morning Show” would be nominated. Voters’ answer? Everyone! Meanwhile, Gary Oldman and Jack Lowden made it in for “Slow Horses” but not Kristin Scott Thomas. It makes for a weird slate.

Debicki stands as the overwhelming favorite for her sensitive portrayal of a melancholy Diana on “The Crown,” but castmate Manville might be more deserving. You know this if you saw Manville’s showcase episode, “Ritz,” the gorgeous, devastating highlight of “The Crown’s” final season. It’s Manville’s first Emmy nomination. Debicki was recognized last year, ultimately losing to Jennifer Coolidge for “The White Lotus.” Voters likely will elevate her this year.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tadanobu Asano, “Shōgun”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Mark Duplass, “The Morning Show”
Jon Hamm, “The Morning Show”
Takehiro Hira, “Shōgun”
Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Crown”

Winner: Crudup

Say what you will about “The Morning Show,” but even the people who watch it to complain about how bad it is have nothing but love for Crudup and his charming, chaotic Cory Ellison. For many, Crudup, who won an Emmy for the series’ first season, is the only reason they still tune in. And “The Morning Show” did haul in 16 nominations, including nine for acting. Clearly, someone loves all that emoting.