Lionsgate’s blockbuster “Hunger Games” series is launching its final assault at the box office this weekend, marking an end of an era for the Santa Monica studio.
“The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2” is expected to gross $120 million in the U.S. and Canada through Sunday, according to audience tracking surveys, a tally that would make it one of the biggest openings of the year so far. But that would be the smallest debut yet for the “Hunger Games” films, about a young woman’s rebellion against a tyrannical dystopian regime.
Some analysts still say it could do slightly more business than last year’s “Mockingjay — Part 1” because of the wide anticipation among the fan base for the story of Katniss Everdeen, played by Jennifer Lawrence. Young adult-skewing movie series such as “The Twilight Saga” and “Harry Potter” tend to tick up in their finales.
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Lionsgate’s first “Hunger Games” film, based on the novel by Suzanne Collins, surprised the movie business when it opened to a staggering $152.5 million domestically in 2012. Its sequel “Catching Fire” opened even higher. But the studio split the third book in the Collins trilogy, “Mockingjay,” into two movies, and the first part opened with a comparatively low $122 million.
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Actors Liam Hemsworth, left, Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson arrive for the premiere of Lionsgate’s “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2” at Microsoft Theater in Los Angeles.
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Fans take a selfie with Katniss herself, actress Jennifer Lawrence, right, at the Los Angeles premiere of “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2”
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Actress Natalie Dormer arrives for the premiere of Lionsgate’s “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2” at Microsoft Theater in Los Angeles.
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Actor Jeffrey Wright, who portrays Beetee, attends the premiere of Lionsgate’s “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2” in Los Angeles.
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Actors Wes Chatham, Amandla Stenberg, center, and Patina Miller at the Los Angeles premiere.
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Actor Donald Sutherland, who portrays President Snow, attends the L.A. premiere of “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2” at Microsoft Theater.
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Actor Woody Harrelson (Haymitch Abernathy) at the Los Angeles premiere.
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Josh Hutcherson poses for photographers at the Los Angeles premiere of “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2.”
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Jena Malone takes a shot of her own as she arrives at the Los Angeles premiere. She portrays Johanna Mason in the film.
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Mockingjay pins adorned with the colors of the French flag are handed out at Microsoft Theater in a reference to the Paris terrorist attacks.
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“Hunger Games” actors Stef Dawson (Annie), from left, Wes Chatham (Castor) and Elizabeth Banks (Effie) at the L.A. premiere.
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Willow Shields, who plays Prim in the “Hunger Games” films, arrives at the Los Angeles premiere of “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2.”
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Actors Woody Harrelson and Elizabeth Banks arrive for the Los Angeles premiere of the latest “Hunger Games” film.
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Jennifer Lawrence steps onto the red carpet for the Los Angeles premiere of “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2.”
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The red carpet at the Los Angeles premiere of “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2” at Microsoft Theater.
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Producer Jon Kilik, left, actor Liam Hemsworth, actress Jennifer Lawrence, actor Josh Hutcherson, producer Nina Jacobson and director Francis Lawrence pose at a red carpet event for the movie “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2” in Beijing.
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Chinese fans try to get autographs from Jennifer Lawrence.
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Director Francis Lawrence, right, poses with Chinese fans.
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Australian actor Liam Hemsworth, right, poses for a selfie in Beijing.
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Jena Malone; Kim Ormiston, center left, and Misty Ormiston; and Sam Claflin attend the L.A. premiere of their film.
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Liam Hemsworth and Jennifer Lawrence pose during the photocall in Madrid.
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Jon Kilik, left, Liam Hemsworth, Jennifer Lawrence, Josh Hutcherson, director Francis Lawrence and producer Nina Jacobson
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Liam Hemsworth, left, Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson in Madrid.
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Director Francis Lawrence, left, Liam Hemsworth, Jennifer Lawrence, Josh Hutcherson, Nina Jacobson and Jon Kilik at the Kinepolis Cinema in Madrid.
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Actors Liam Hemsworth walks ahead as Jennifer Lawrence cautions Josh Hutcherson to not step on her dress after having fallen once at the Madrid premiere.
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Jennifer Lawrence attends the world premiere of “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2” in Berlin.
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Willow Shields, from left, Sam Claflin and Julianne Moore attend the world premiere of “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2” in Berlin.
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Elizabeth Banks, who portrays Effie Trinket in the “Hunger Games” movies, at the Berlin premiere on Wednesday.
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Stanley Tucci, Jena Malone, center, and Natalie Dormer attend the premiere.
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Josh Hutcherson (Peeta Mellark) at the world premiere in Berlin.
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The cast and crew pose for a selfie Thursday upon arrival at the London premiere of “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2.”
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Natalie Dormer, from left, Julianne Moore and Tallia Storm at the British premiere in London.
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Woody Harrelson mugs in front of costars Gwendoline Christie, from left, Natalie Dormer, Jennifer Lawrence, Elizabeth Banks and Julianne Moore in London.
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Jennifer Lawrence embraces a guest on her arrival Monday at the Paris premiere of “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2.”
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Liam Hemsworth, left, Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson at the Paris premiere of the final “Hunger Games” film.
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Liam Hemsworth, from left, Jennifer Lawrence, Josh Hutcherson, Woody Harrelson and director Francis Lawrence pose at the Paris premiere.
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Jennifer Lawrence on the red carpet at the Paris premiere, held Monday at the Grand Rex theater.
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Woody Harrelson (Haymitch Abernathy) poses on the Paris red carpet.
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Liam Hemsworth (Gale Hawthorn) on the red carpet at the Paris premiere.
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What face would Katniss make? The many looks of Jennifer Lawrence from the Paris premiere of the “Hunger Games” finale.
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A Paris photo call for “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2” draws Woody Harrelson (left, in pajama pants and socks), Josh Hutcherson, Jennifer Lawrence, Liam Hemsworth and director Francis Lawrence.
(Bertrand Guay / AFP/Getty Images) The new “Mockingjay” should also stack up robust ticket sales over the weeks after its opening, benefiting from strong reviews and Lawrence’s continued star power, said Shawn Robbins, senior analyst at BoxOffice.com.
“It’s a natural balancing out. Once you’ve dug so far deep into a franchise, you can only max out so much,” Robbins said. “It might have a nice little bump, and it’ll have good legs to carry it through.”
Even with the slip in ticket sales from the earlier “Hunger Games” movies, “Mockingjay — Part 2” is still expected to be the fourth highest-opening film of the year thus far, coming in behind only “Jurassic World,” “Avengers: Age of Ultron” and “Furious 7.”
It’s also undertaking an aggressive international rollout, with the film opening in 86 countries this week including China, where it’s likely to post huge numbers. On a recent conference call with Wall Street analysts, Lionsgate Chief Executive Jon Feltheimer called it “the biggest simultaneous global launch in the company’s history and a fitting grand finale for the current story arc.”
Analysts and investors have been asking what Lionsgate plans to do after the publicly traded company’s key franchise reaches its conclusion. So far, “Hunger Games” movies have grossed more than $2.31 billion worldwide.
But Eric Wold, an entertainment analyst at B. Riley & Co., said the company’s profits probably won’t take much of a hit. Lionsgate still has the “Divergent” series, and it has potential franchises in properties like “Power Rangers.”
“There’s not a huge cliff that has to be overcome,” Wold said.
First trailer for “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2.”
Plus, it might not be the end of the “Hunger Games” after all. Feltheimer has said the studio is “thinking about” possible prequels and sequels. Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. shares are up nearly 18% so far this year, according to FactSet. The shares rose 27 cents Tuesday to $37.80.
“Mockingjay — Part 2” cost $160 million to produce, plus millions more in marketing.
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FOR THE RECORD:
A previous version of this article estimated the “Mockingjay — Part 2” production budget at $125 million. The film cost $160 million to make.
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It has a clear path to victory this weekend because it faces light competition from other major movies. Sony Pictures is releasing the R-rated holiday comedy “The Night Before,” starring Seth Rogen and Joseph Gordon-Levitt, while fledgling studio STX Entertainment is debuting “The Secret in Their Eyes,” a thriller featuring Nicole Kidman, Julia Roberts and Chiwetel Ejiofor.
Next week will see added rivals at the multiplex, with Pixar’s “The Good Dinosaur” and “Warner Bros.’ “Rocky” spinoff “Creed.”
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