Oscar Watch: Final predictions, forecasting a record-tying bounty for ‘La La Land’
Oscar nominations are scheduled to arrive Tuesday morning at 5:18 a.m. PST. Will “La La Land” pull down a record-tying number? Will the makers of “Deadpool” give voters a middle-finger salute?
Here are my final predictions for 21 of the 24 categories. (I haven’t seen all the shortlisted short features, so those three categories will have to wait.)
BEST PICTURE
“La La Land”
“Moonlight”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Lion”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
Comment: Nine movies — though you never know how the math is going to shake out with the academy’s preferential voting system. If it’s just eight nominees, as has been the case the last two years, either “Hidden Figures” or “Hacksaw” will be on the outside looking in.
DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”
Martin Scorsese, “Silence”
Comment: Stubbornly sticking with Scorsese (myopically?), believing that directors branch members will reward the craft and passion that went into “Silence.” But if not enough voters saw it, we might see David Mackenzie nominated for “Hell or High Water.”
LEAD ACTOR
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Comment: Same slate as the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Yawn!
LEAD ACTRESS
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Amy Adams, “Arrival”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Comment: Annette Bening could (and should) find a slot for “20th Century Women.” But many voters want to rectify the fact that Huppert has never earned an Oscar nomination. As for Streep, she’s certainly not lacking in academy honors — this would be her 20th. That Golden Globes speech probably put her over the top this year.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Comment: Again, a repeat of the SAG Awards group. The actors races aren’t where the action’s at this year.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, “Fences”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Comment: The well-liked Spencer would be the only “Hidden Figures” acting nominee, though you could make just as strong a case for her castmate Janelle Monae in this category.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
Taylor Sheridan, “Hell or High Water”
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Matt Ross, “Captain Fantastic”
Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Lobster”
Comment: This set would leave out “Zootopia,” a movie that won raves for its writing but runs up against voters’ bias against animated movies — or, at least, titles not made by Pixar. Only nine have earned screenplay nominations over the years — eight Pixar films and DreamWorks’ “Shrek.”
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
August Wilson, “Fences”
Eric Heisserer, “Arrival”
Luke Davis, “Lion”
Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder, “Hidden Figures”
Comment: A nod for Tom Ford’s “Nocturnal Animals” probably makes more sense than “Hidden Figures.” Writers could be inclined to go for a movie about a bitter, heartbroken guy exacting revenge via the written word. But “Hidden Figures” is a crowd-pleaser in the best sense, and voters might reward the craft that made it such a spirited piece of entertainment.
ANIMATED FEATURE
“Zootopia”
“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“Moana”
“The Red Turtle”
“My Life as a Zucchini”
Comment: “Finding Dory” grossed over a billion dollars worldwide … and it probably won’t be nominated. Never let it be said that animated=branch voters go along with the crowd.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“O.J.: Made in America”
“13th”
“I Am Not Your Negro”
“Cameraperson”
“Weiner”
Comment: “O.J.” might be the only sure bet here. Other titles in play: “Life Animated,” “The Eagle Huntress,” “Fire at Sea” and “Gleason.” The acclaimed, form-stretching “Tower” might also make it in.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Toni Erdmann”
“The Salesman”
“A Man Called Ove”
“My Life as a Zucchini”
“Land of Mine”
Comment: “Zucchini” would become the first movie nominated in both the animated and foreign language feature categories.
ORIGINAL SCORE
“La La Land”
“Jackie”
“Moonlight”
“Lion”
“The BFG”
Comment: “The BFG”? Yes, “The BFG.” Like I’m going to bet against John Williams.
ORIGINAL SONG
“City of Stars” (“La La Land”)
“How Far I’ll Go” (“Moana”)
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” (“La La Land”)
“Runnin’” (“Hidden Figures”)
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” (“Trolls”)
Comment: “Faith,” co-written by Stevie Wonder for “Sing,” has a shot. But the feel-good, dance pop ditty “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” was the bestselling song of 2016 and, for many, the song of the summer. Not that music branch voters probably noticed, but maybe their kids did.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“La La Land”
“Moonlight”
“Arrival”
“Silence”
“Lion”
Comment: Simon Duggan was an essential part of “Hacksaw Ridge’s” masterful mayhem, so he might make it in, as could 13-time nominee Roger Deakins for “Hail Caesar!” (Bonus prediction: Deakins finally wins his first Oscar next year for “Blade Runner 2049.”)
COSTUME DESIGN
“La La Land”
“Jackie”
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
“Allied”
Comment: Or “The Dressmaker” for reasons I should not have to explain.
FILM EDITING
“La La Land”
“Moonlight”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Arrival”
“Manchester by the Sea”
Comment: Sebastián Sepúlveda should make it in for the brilliantly assembled “Jackie,” which unsettles its audience through its careful, complicated construction.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“La La Land”
“Jackie”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
“Arrival”
“Hail Caesar!”
Comment: “Hail Caesar!” should pop up somewhere among the craft categories and where better than Jess Gonchor’s period-perfect studio back lot.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“Star Trek Beyond”
“Deadpool”
Comment: And here’s where “Deadpool” becomes an Oscar nominee. The makeup made Ryan Reynolds’ daughter cry!
VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Jungle Book”
“Doctor Strange:
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
“Arrival”
Comment: “The Jungle Book” could find some love elsewhere too (production design, for one), and it should absolutely own this category.
SOUND EDITING
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
“Arrival”
“Sully”
“La La Land”
Comment: “La La Land’s” shakiest ground. “Deepwater Horizon” could well take its place here, meaning Chazelle’s musical would fall one shy of an Oscar-tying 14 nominations.
SOUND MIXING
“La La Land”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
“Arrival”
“The Jungle Book”
Comment: As music-heavy movies find favor in this category, “La La Land” is safe here. It all comes down to that sound editing category. C’mon, sound branch voters. Make it a lovely morning!
Twitter: @glennwhipp
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From the Oscars to the Emmys.
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