Another refinery shuts down in California. What happens to gas prices?

California’s attempt to manage a smooth transition away from gasoline just got roughed up with this week’s decision by Phillips 66 to shutter its refinery in Wilmington next year, wiping out more than 8% of the state’s crude oil processing capacity.

The closure is likely to increase California’s already high prices at the gas pump, given that much of the replacement gasoline will be shipped in by ocean vessel, analysts say.

The price issue will be “most worrisome if we have some kind of disruption in the market” and the Phillips refinery’s not there to help with resupply, said Severin Borenstein, faculty director at UC Berkeley’s Energy Institute.

The planned shutdown, announced by Phillips 66 on Wednesday, came just days after Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a bill that could force the state’s refineries to store extra gasoline, a move intended to minimize price spikes, such as those that occurred in late 2022 and 2023.

A Phillips 66 spokesman said the decision is not related to that bill, but in a press release the company called “the long term sustainability” of the refinery “uncertain.” He told The Times that “the refinery had lower profitability compared to other assets in our portfolio.”

State Sen. Steve Bradford (D-Gardena), who represents the Wilmington-area district where the refinery is located, sees the planned closure as the culmination of “a death of 1,000 cuts” from California energy policy “that led us to where Phillips saw no real future.”

Not only will gasoline prices rise, he said, “but now we’ll have ships docked at our ports spewing pollution while they’re unloading gasoline from countries that don’t have the same environmental standards that we have.”

He laments the loss of up to 600 direct jobs at the refinery, 300 contractors, and an unknown number of ancillary jobs. The Phillips refinery is split into two sites, one section in Wilmington and the other in nearby Carson, linked by pipeline.

“I feel for the men and women who live around that area who have depended on these jobs for decades. The refinery was there first, not the homes,” he said. “These people made a conscious decision to buy homes in these communities to be close to jobs.”

Environmentalists and community activists cheered the news, however, saying it will mean cleaner air for the thousands who live in the area and that the state must continue the transition away from its dependence on fossil fuels.

Jamie Court, president of Consumer Watchdog, acknowledged that gasoline prices could rise after the refinery is shut down, but said that justifies California’s plans to assert more control over gasoline supplies.

“This is the reason for command and control over the refiners,” he said. “So when one changes their plan, the others must make sure they have supply liquidity.”

The loss of the Wilmington refinery will consolidate the state’s refining capacity in fewer hands, in what Court said would raise the potential for price-fixing.

The refinery closure is the latest development in the state’s attempt to rid itself of gasoline and diesel vehicles to reduce pollution and greenhouse gases, but at the same time keep a lid on pump prices.

The governor has not been shy about blaming the industry for what he calls price gouging, and his rhetoric is heated. Earlier this week he posted an Instagram video in which he declares that “Big oil big wigs are up to their oily shenanigans here in California.”

Rather than go tit-for-tat with the governor, Phillips 66 is taking what might be considered a strategic retreat. The closure could indeed boost its bottom line. The company runs nine gasoline refineries in the United States and two in Europe. In an August presentation aimed at investors, the company said it planned to increase its capacity utilization. That can be accomplished by closing one or more refineries and increasing utilization at those that remain, cutting operating and capital costs and improving profit margins.

As to possible supply shortages, Phillips said it will “work with California to maintain current levels and potentially increase supplies.” No details were offered. Phillips has a strong incentive to keep supplies up: it runs about 1,000 service stations in California under the 76, Phillips 66 and Conoco brands.

But importing fuel by ship from its own refineries or buying it from other importers “adds costs,” Borenstein said.

State Sen. Steve Bradford (D-Gardena) represents the district where the Phillips 66 refinery is located. “I feel for the men and women who live around that area who have depended on those jobs for decades,” he said.

(Associated Press)

Newsom declined to comment. Siva Gunda, vice chair of the California Energy Commission, issued a statement saying Phillips 66’s “plan to replace the production lost from the refinery closure is an example of the type of creative solutions that are needed as we transition away from fossil fuels.”

California had 11 gasoline refineries but that number was cut to nine recently when the Marathon refinery in Martinez and Phillips 66’s other California refinery in Rodeo, both in Northern California, converted their plants from fossil fuels to renewable diesel fuel. Those conversions earn carbon credit subsidies in the state’s carbon markets.

While providing lower-carbon fuel to California truckers, with consequent reductions in pollution and greenhouse gases, the shift increased concentration in the gasoline-refining market, leading to more pricing power. Next year, the number of California refineries will shrink to eight.

While Phillips 66 said its decision isn’t related to the gasoline storage bill, it warned in its most recent annual 10-K financial report that California legislation and rulemaking could have “potential adverse effects on our refining, marketing and midstream operations in California, which may be material to our results of operations, financial condition, profitability and cash flows.”

The report cited the passage in 2023 of a bill that gives the state power to set limits on refinery profit margins, with heavy penalties for noncompliance. The state hasn’t yet exercised that option.