Recovering South Sudan’s optimism

In just a few weeks, the people of southern Sudan will mark the first anniversary of their historic vote to secede from the north and establish their own sovereign nation. Voters danced as they cast their ballots in January to split with the government in Khartoum. Of the nearly 99% who voted in favor of independence, some were mindful of the great challenges ahead, but others talked to reporters about their high expectations: new bridges and roads and schools and jobs and even better food as a result of self-government.

“You’ll be able to eat what you want and do what you want,” one voter told a Western reporter.

Today, that optimism is gone. Four months after the Republic of South Sudan officially came into being — the first new, self-governing African nation to be established in two decades — it is sliding steadily and scarily back into a state of war.

Establishing a new country was never going to be easy. Despite the joy in the streets, no one who really thought about the challenges believed that splitting Sudan in half and creating a new nation out of an impoverished, undereducated, underdeveloped and deeply factionalized region would be achieved without pain, struggle and setbacks. Even though the government in Khartoum had promised to live peacefully alongside its new neighbor, most observers were skeptical that the profound hostility between north and south, which had led to on-again, off-again civil war since the end of colonial rule in 1956, had gone away. Officials on both sides of the new border acknowledged even as secession went forward that numerous complicated issues remained unresolved and threatened to undo the fragile peace that had finally been worked out. Expectations on the part of Western officials, who had worked for years to help mediate the north-south dispute, were, to say the least, tempered.

But even those low expectations were not low enough to prepare observers for the speed with which the situation has deteriorated.

Perhaps the most serious matter at the moment is what’s going on along the border between north and south in the provinces of South Kordofan and Blue Nile. These are regions that fought with the south during the long civil war but that were relegated to the north when the maps of the new state were drawn. Now, armed rebel groups in both provinces are continuing to fight against Khartoum, which has, in turn, bombed the two territories. South Sudan is aiding the rebels. American officials say a serious humanitarian crisis is developing quickly because Khartoum has denied access to aid groups seeking to provide emergency assistance to the 200,000 to 400,000 people who have been displaced by the fighting and who are facing severe food insecurity.

The hostilities in South Kordofan and Blue Nile have already begun to spread. The northern government recently allowed its bombers to cross over the border into South Sudan.In the Yida region near the border, a bomber dispatched by Khartoum attacked a refugee camp, and in the Guffa region there were further attacks. The north claims it is merely targeting areas in the south that are aiding the South Kordofan and Blue Nile rebels.

The fighting in the two rebellious regions and along the border is just one of the problems threatening to unwind the delicate peace agreement between north and south. Another is a continuing dispute over the final demarcation of the two states and over what should become of various nomadic populations that drift back and forth. There are also questions about displaced refugees from the south living in the north, and about the future of Abyei, an area between north and south whose final status was left unresolved and that is currently occupied by the north.

Then there is the thorny question of how to divide oil revenues between north and south. The bulk of the lucrative oil reserves are situated in the south, but they must be pumped out through a pipeline that crosses through the north. The south has agreed in principle to soften the economic shock of the loss of northern oil revenue by providing cash transfers to help address the debt burden, but the north is understandably concerned. It has not only lost a third of its territory but also 75% of its primary source of revenue.

Even if the north weren’t an ongoing concern, the new Republic of South Sudan still has plenty problems of its own. Not just 85% illiteracy, a lack of teachers and among the highest maternity and infant mortality rates in the world, but also several rival militias not yet sure of their role in the new order. With large amounts of foreign aid and oil revenue coming in, it is also critical that South Sudan begin early to discourage and, if necessary, prosecute corruption, which, if it is not checked, could become a devastating problem for the infant country.

Though both north and south might vehemently deny it, the reality is that they need each other badly; their futures are tied. In the weeks ahead, both sides need to pause, regain their composure, stop the escalation of hostilities and begin to deal with the most sensitive and pressing issues: borders, corruption, war and oil revenues. Only then can the region recapture January’s sense of promise.